College football Week 8 betting tips, trends and picks: Love/hate edition

College football Week 8 betting guide involves some stone-cold locks you can take to the bank and a pair of marquee ranked-on-ranked games that I’m steering clear of.

The Big Ten football season finally gets underway this weekend with a full slate, including one of my favorite plays this week as Nebraska heads to Ohio State, and one game, Michigan at Minnesota, that should be a fun watch, but hellacious on bettors.

In the college football Week 8 betting guide, I’ll feature five games and include relevant betting trends, including straight up, against the spread records and how teams have fared against their opponents, in Week 8 through the last decade and how they’ve fared in the month of October, among other various tidbits that can help you win some cash, or at the least help you avoid losing some cash.

Odds and trends courtesy of Odds Shark

College football betting guide, tips and trends

Love: Syracuse at Clemson (-46): O/U: 61.5

Syracuse may be the worst Power 5 team we’ve seen so far this season and Clemson is the No. 1 team in the nation so this one will be ugly from the jump. Trevor Lawrence continues his assault on the Clemson and ACC record books and continues to lead in the Heisman race with another monster performance on the heels of his 400-yard, five-touchdown game. The only real drama is whether Clemson covers this monstrous spread in the first half and if they top last week’s 73-point outburst they had vs. Georgia Tech. I wouldn’t rule out either happening.

• The total has gone OVER in seven of Syracuse’s last nine games
• The total has gone UNDER in seven of Clemson’s last eight games against Syracuse
• Clemson is 2-3 ATS this season
• Clemson is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games played in October

Pick: Clemson will win, cover and the total will go over.

Love: Nebraska at Ohio State (-26): O/U: 67.5

These two schools were the most vocal about starting the Big Ten season and then Nebraska was pretty vocal about having to open vs. Ohio State who throttled the Huskers, 48-7 last year. Expect more of the same this year with Justin Fields making a big Heisman statement as he looks to make up for the lost time. The Buckeyes need to play perfect football to get in the playoff and that means they could run up the score for added style points.

Meanwhile, Scott Frost has had myriad issues turning his alma mater around and a big reason for the struggles is the lack of consistent and dynamic play from starting quarterback Adrian Martinez. He won the competition over Luke McCaffrey, but if Martinez struggles in the first half, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Frost have a quick trigger and pull him in favor of McCaffrey. This one is gonna be ugly and Nebraska fans will want to look away.

• Nebraska is 1-5 ATS in its last six games against Ohio State.
• Nebraska is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games.
• The total has gone OVER in 16 of Nebraska’s last 20 games as the underdog.
• The total has gone OVER in four of Ohio State’s last six games against Nebraska.
• Ohio State is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games when playing as the favorite.

Pick: Ohio State will win, cover and the total will go over.

Love: Alabama (-21) at Tennessee: O/U: 66

Alabama has won 13 straight against Tennessee, including the last four by an average of 34 points. Tennessee just fired their defensive line coach and their quarterback Jarrett Guarantano was benched after throwing two pick-sixes in an awful loss to Kentucky. Tennessee head coach Jeremy Pruitt put Guarantano back in the game and will start him vs. the Tide, but after Alabama shutout Georgia in the second half, their defense may have figured things out. This one could get ugly quickly for the Vols.

• Alabama is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 against Tennessee.
• The total has gone OVER in five of Alabama’s last five at Tennessee.
• The total has gone OVER in six of Tennessee’s last eight against Alabama.
• Alabama is 18-2 SU in its last 20 on the road.
• Tennessee is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six games.

Pick: Alabama will win, cover and the total will go over.

Hate: Michigan at Minnesota (+3): O/U: 54.5

This should be a great game to watch, but a hell of a game to bet on. I’m going to avoid playing this or involving it in any parlays. I’d recommend staying away too. There’s just too much uncertainty with how both teams will respond to this unique offseason and the spread is so tight it doesn’t leave much room for error.

Michigan has historically dominated when they’ve played Minnesota, however, this is a different Minnesota team with P.J. Fleck at the helm. Michigan is breaking in a first-time starting QB in Joe Milton while Minnesota returns Tanner Morgan who should be a Day 2 pick in the NFL Draft. Expect both sides to be a little sloppy defensively in the opener so the offense will rule with the Gophers getting a momentum-building win while the Wolverines start the season with a whimper.

• The total has gone OVER in five of Michigan’s last six road games and in 10 of their last 15 overall.
• Michigan is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games against Minnesota.
• Michigan is 8-0 SU in its last eight games at Minnesota.
• Minnesota is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games.
• The total has gone OVER in six of Minnesota’s last seven games.
• The total has gone OVER in five of Minnesota’s last six games against Michigan.

Pick: Minnesota wins straight up, Michigan fails to cover, and the total goes over.

Hate: Iowa State at Oklahoma State (-3.5): O/U: 52

This is another marquee game that I’m likely to avoid playing. My recommendation is don’t risk your money on this game because the line is too narrow and neither of these teams has been very trustworthy or reliable this year.

Iowa State has been a Big 12 giant slayer since Matt Campbell took over as head coach and Oklahoma State has famously choked against the Clones in years past. There will be defense played in this game, so it won’t be your typical Big 12 shootout, and these two have typically played defensive-oriented games over the last few years and Iowa State has struggled on the road. Look for Oklahoma State to pull out a 7-point win as they pull away in the fourth quarter.

• Iowa State is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games.
• Iowa State is 1-7 SU in its last eight games against Oklahoma State.
• The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Iowa State’s last 15 games on the road.
• The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oklahoma State’s last seven games.
• Oklahoma State is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games.
• Iowa State is 13-1 ATS in its last 14 October games.

Pick: Oklahoma State will win, but not cover the spread, and the total will go under.

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