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College football picks against the spread: How to bet Week 12’s biggest games

By Nick Villano

Nov 7, 2020; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback Justin Fields (1) throws during the first quarter against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Ohio Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 7, 2020; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback Justin Fields (1) throws during the first quarter against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Ohio Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports /
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College football picks against the spread
Oklahoma State Cowboys running back Chuba Hubbard (30): (Rob Ferguson-USA TODAY Sports) /

No. 14 Oklahoma State at No. 18 Oklahoma (-7)

Usually, a game pitting two teams in the teens doesn’t warrant its own slide, but this isn’t a normal matchup like that. Oklahoma is looking to complete its season turnaround and put a rocket on their lane to the Big 12 Championship, what would be the Sooners’ sixth conference championship in a row. Oklahoma State can also put itself on the fast track to a title game appearance with a win here. The entire Big 12 will be watching this game to see who comes out on top.

Oklahoma State’s history against the Sooners is not good. Mike Gundy has only beaten the Sooners twice in 15 years as the Cowboys’ head coach. That’s a putrid record against an in-state opponent. This isn’t Kansas here. Oklahoma State has had some really good players play for them.

The Cowboys have to win this game on offense. Oklahoma is going to score its points, but if Oklahoma State can respond and wait for a timely turnover, they can win. It really comes down to the run game. Chuba Hubbard hasn’t been the game-breaker he was last season. Oklahoma is one of 14 teams in the entire country to allow less than 100 yards rushing per game. Hubbard is averaging only 4.6 yards per carry, but he has the ability to do what he did last year (6.3 yards per carry). Last year, he had a decent game against the Sooners (104 yards and a touchdown), but he likely has to exceed that to come out on top.

Neither Spencer Rattler nor Spencer Sanders has ever played in the Bedlam. While Texas-Oklahoma is THE rivalry, this one feels a little different. There’s still hate, but it’s more of a one-sided mauling that always ends up the same way. The quarterback that has to do the most will likely be on the losing side. Neither team wants to win this one with the arm of the man under center.

Oklahoma needs to avoid mistakes against a really talented Cowboys defense. The Sooners have 11 turnovers against just 10 takeaways on the season. It’s somehow still a better average than the Cowboys (six against nine). Oklahoma State wins with stingy defense, but Oklahoma can chip away at that. However, if they end drives quickly with a turnover, there’s no coming back from that. Lincoln Riley knows that, and he will put together a gameplan where Rattler will take care of the ball. The points are incredibly scary here, but Oklahoma is just plain the better team.

Pick: Oklahoma (-7)