NBA DFS picks December 25: Merry Bucking Christmas
It’s time for our annual NBA DFS all day Christmas extravaganza! For those of us that played NBA DFS in the bubble, it’s a return to one of those glorious days where the NBA lasted all day! Enjoy it. That wont happen much at all this year.
As usual, the NBA puts out some marquee matchups on Christmas. We tip off at noon eastern with Miami hosting Zion and the Pelicans. That’s followed up by Giannis hosting Curry and the Warriors. 5pm Eastern sees Brooklyn heading to Beantown.
We finish up out west with the Lakers hosting Dallas and 8pm Eastern and Denver hosting the Clippers for the nightcap at 10:30 Eastern. This is going to be a great day!
As per usual, we need to take a look at the injuries first. This is a smaller slate, so any kind of value can help here.
Out: Kristaps Porzingis (knee), Kemba Walker (knee), Draymond Green (foot), Klay Thompson (Achilles), Romeo Langford (wrist).
Questionable: LeBron James (ankle), Marcus Morris (knee), D.J. Augustin (calf), JaMychal Green (calf), Wenyen Gabriel (knee), Tacko Fall (eye).
LeBron will play on Christmas. There’s little doubt about that.
I started doing the trifecta last year where at the request of a reader I tried to predict the top three scorers of the night. I got all three right twice, but they were never in the right order. I’m not one to give up that easily, so I’ll do it again. I’ll go with A.D., Giannis, and Kawhi.
NBA DFS Point Guards:
It’s Luka and Steph Curry at the top of point guard again. This is a tougher matchup for Curry, and I kind of want to avoid the whole Golden State side of this thing after what the Nets did to them. Luka’s matchup isn’t great either, and with all of the other stars at other positions, I think we can fade Luka as well. However, his ceiling is still very high. He’s a good GPP option yet.
Kyrie Irving started on fire for the Nets and has another decent matchup with Kemba out. Still, there is still a ton of other great options and I don’t see Irving’s ceiling as very high. This may be a day to pay down at the point slot.
It was a very nice Milwaukee debut for Jrue Holiday on Wednesday. His price seems low here considering what he is capable of. We saw what Kyrie did to the Warriors. Expect a similar showing for Holiday.
Again, just because Kemba is out doesn’t mean Marcus Smart is a good play. He struggled with his shot for much of the preseason and in the opener. He’ll bust out somewhere, but I’m not going to play roulette trying to guess when.
Dennis Schroder looked like he belonged on the court running the offense of the first team with the Lakers. He’ll score less than he did last year, but Schroder is good enough everywhere else to still be worth the price leading one of the more potent offenses around.
Similarly, Eric Bledsoe looked like a good fit for the Pelicans as well. I’m hesitant to use him against Goran Dragic and the Heat though. For this game I think I would rather use Dragic and his elite scoring off the bench at a low price.
Chalk Jeff Teague was amazing on Wednesday and should be again as well. This is especially true if Smart continues to struggle from the field.
NBA DFS Shooting Guards:
Once again, Paul George went berserk on the Lakers. Once again, don’t expect that to be the norm against the rest of the league. George looks overpriced against a Denver team that might be one of the best teams in the West.
Jaylen Brown was roughly five times better than Marcus Smart on Wednesday and certainly isn’t priced like it. Dollar for dollar, Brown is my favorite play for the Celtics with the possible exception of Jeff Teague.
Gary Harris played an astounding 42 minutes in the opener, which is not good for Will Barton‘s fantasy value. Barton was still a good scorer off the bench, but he should not be as expensive as he is. I much prefer the enigmatic Tim Hardaway Jr. for GPP and Tyler Herro in cash in this price range.
Josh Richardson was solid in his Mavericks debut, but you’ll get almost the same production out of Jalen Brunson at a much lower price and in about half the minutes. Take that for what you will.
If you are on a budget and want a piece of the Bucks’ starting five, Donte DiVincenzo is a good way to grab that. Despite all of the talent in this lineup, DiVincenzo still looked good in the opener against Boston, especially for this low of a price.
J.J. Redick lit up the Raptors from beyond the arc despite solid perimeter defense. When he’s on, Redick is still one of the best at his craft. The ceiling is awesome for the price, but the floor is rough if he goes cold.
NBA DFS Small Forwards:
Yeah, it’s Christmas and Christmas is usually LeBron time. Let’s face it though. This is game two not game 22. The Lakers aren’t going to jeopardize their shot at another title over a regular season game, especially one early in the season. I don’t expect much from LeBron here.
Kawhi Leonard averaged a cool 51 DraftKings points per game against the Nuggets in the seven-game Western Conference semis in the bubble just a couple of months ago. Some of that was because PG had a horrible series. Some was because Denver couldn’t guard him. Not a lot has changed. Kawhi is still going to be tough for Denver to deal with.
Brandon Ingram stuffed the stat sheet and led the Pelicans to an upset of the Raptors. Not bad for night one. Can he lead the upset of the Heat next?
This is not going to be an easy game for Caris LeVert, but he had a nice night in the opener despite poor shooting from the floor. The Nets worked well together and ran the starters a little more than I expected in the first three quarters. They may not be a fantasy mess after all.
The new big three for the Bucks went nuts on Boston on Wednesday. Before you go thinking that they can’t do that every game, consider this. The Bucks had just 12 bench points for the entire game. This starting lineup can all be fantasy relevant. Khris Middleton looks very reasonable here.
Will Denver keep Michael Porter in the starting lineup? He performed well on Wednesday, but I still don’t trust these rotations. Still, Porter is cheap for the numbers that he can put up.
Even though we have a ton of cheap starters at small forward, most of them are invisible for fantasy purposes. It’s a much better idea to take your shot with sharpshooter Joe Harris off of the Brooklyn bench.
NBA DFS Power Forwards:
This is a very nice spot for Giannis, but I do wonder if maybe Kevin Durant isn’t in an equally good spot. I don’t know that the Nets so much limited his minutes on purpose or just took advantage when the opportunity presented itself. We have a tough decision to make at PF, but I don’t think we can go wrong with either choice.
Jayson Tatum put up a strong stat line on Wednesday, but PF is rather loaded here. I just don’t feel like Tatum in this matchup is an elite play. Ingram for $1,000 less looks much more appetizing.
It seems as though the minutes will be there for Zion Williamson, but it is clear that he is not the focal point of this offense yet and it could be a while before he is. This will get figured out in time, but I don’t think you want to gamble on it against the Heat.
Montrezl Harrell was one of the few Lakers that weren’t bored by the Clippers. Maybe it’s because he played for them last year. Maybe not. The fact is that Harrell was active and is priced very reasonably against a Dallas team that usually can’t handle him either.
Paul Millsap is priced reasonably enough to use, but he no longer has much of an upside. I would rather use the high energy of Maxi Kleber off the bench for Dallas or Dorian Finney-Smith, who plays a lot but doesn’t do a whole lot.
NBA DFS Centers:
It sucks to pay that much for Anthony Davis only to have him lay an egg. It happened several times in bubble play. However, this is a matchup with Dallas that Davis should dominate without Porzingis to guard him.
Nikola Jokic was a load for the Clippers to handle last year and should be again. It helps that the offense often runs through Jokic, giving him a very high ceiling. Davis has the better matchup, but Jokic is the guy you should be able to trust more.
This is a smash spot for Bam Adebayo, especially considering that Bam routinely leads the Heat in minutes. He’s the one guy that’s guaranteed to get enough run night in and night out to pay for that price tag.
James Wiseman had a very nice debut, but it was against the Nets. It will be a little different against the Bucks. Still, his price is low enough to keep us intrigued and to get me to run him at least once.
DeAndre Jordan is relatively cheap for an elite rebounder, but Jarrett Allen is good enough to keep taking minutes from him. I avoided this situation most of last year and am inclined to do so again. Serge Ibaka looked much better for the price in the opener.
Tristan Thompson is an outstanding value play against the Nets. He wont eat a lot of minutes, but Thompson is good for around 25-28 minutes and will do hefty damage in that time frame in this one.
It appears as though Kelly Olynyk is going to be a very safe punt even if he has very little upside. However, if Olynyk keeps racking up 15-20 DraftKings points for the price, that’s not much to complain about.
NBA DFS core plays:
Cash games are easier on two game slates because you don’t need to take any big risks. This is still a tough cash slate because of all the high-priced stars on it.
Cash game staples:
Jrue Holiday, Bucks
Jaylen Brown, Celtics
Khris Middleton, Bucks
Kevin Durant, Nets
Nikola Jokic, Nuggets
Last year in most weeks the GPP options did so well that most of them could have been used in cash as well. That is the exception, not the rule. Some of these guys are cash game viable, but all are probably best used in GPP formats.
Kyrie Irving, Nets
Tyler Herro, Heat
Dennis Schroder, Lakers
Brandon Ingram, Pelicans
Montrezl Harrell, Lakers
Stacks:
Bucks
Clippers (GPP only)
Nets (GPP only)
Pelicans (GPP only)
Top value plays:
Jeff Teague, Celtics
Donte DiVincenzo, Bucks
J.J. Redick, Pelicans
Kelly Olynyk, Heat
Maxi Kleber, Mavericks
Be sure to check back all week for all of your bowl picks for college football and DFS picks for bowl season and the PGA when it gets back going. We have what you need at FanSided Fantasy