In our third 2021 NBA Mock Draft, the Houston Rockets land the No. 1 pick and a chance to grab a future star to build around.
Since our last NBA Mock Draft, both the NBA and NCAA seasons have concluded locking in the non-lottery draft order and giving us one final look at some top prospects before pre-draft workouts start. Our third NBA Mock Draft uses a simulation from Tankathon to establish the order.
Who is rising and falling in our latest NBA Mock Draft?
The analysis of each individual player here relies heavily on the insights of draft experts like Trevor Magnotti, Ben Pfiefer and Jackson Frank. Each pick is not necessarily a guess at who each team will or even should take, just a hopefully insightful match between prospect skill and upside and each team’s need.
And if you’re looking at any of these picks wondering what the heck I was thinking, just remember that mock drafts are made to be mocked.
Brown is a hyper-athletic hybrid forward with a raw but intriguing set of skills, particularly at the defensive end of the floor. He’ll need seasoning but the Jazz have the depth to let him develop and grow into a contributor.
Cameron Thomas gets buckets, shooting with confidence, attacking off the dribble and pulling up in the mid-range. It’s not clear if he’ll be able to manufacture the same level of efficiency against NBA defenders but his ceiling as microwave bench scorer could be useful as the Suns keep developing their young core.
Prkacin is an athletic combo forward with potential upside as a shooter and creator off the dribble. His outside jumper needs to get more reliable and he’ll have to prove his creation upside holds up against NBA athletes. But even his floor as a lane-filler and high-energy slasher could be useful for the 76ers.
Shannon Jr. is an athletic wing with plenty of defensive upside. He’s shaky as a shooter but he’ll look much better playing off three of the greatest offensive creators in the league and the Nets will continue to need defensive upgrades.
Mitchell raised his profile with Baylor’s title run but his draft potential isn’t just a mirage. He’s a strong defender, although his size means he’ll mostly need to guard 1s. On offense, he’ll have to prove his 3-point shooting bump last year is real but he can also offer value as a secondary creator.
Isaiah Jackson is a throw-back big, a rim protector and vertical floor-spacer who wins with strength, quickness and athleticism. He could give the Clippers another look in the frontcourt and benefit from the gravity of Paul George and Kawhi Leonard.
Robinson-Earl isn’t an exceptional athlete and doesn’t have that one definable skill that drives his NBA potential. But he has decent size and mobility, plays with awareness and within his role and should be a reliable and versatile team defender.
Butler helped lead Baylor to a national championship with his blend of efficient scoring and savvy facilitation. He competes at the defensive end too and could contribute right away on a Lakers’ team that is always looking for shooting and complementary creation in the backcourt.
Duarte is a solid defender who shined as a three-level scorer at Oregon. He’s probably not good enough to fill that role at the NBA level but if he can adjust to a 3-and-D-plus role he has plenty of value as a complementary piece.
Williams had an incredibly rough freshman season — shooting under 40 percent from the field and 30 percent on 3s. Despite the inefficiency, his combination of size, athleticism and creation potential will convince someone to take a chance on him.
The next step for the Hawks is continuing to add supplemental creators around Trae Young. Giddey is unique in this class as a point guard at 6-foot-8, with the defensive versatility to handle a variety of larger players. He’d be an interesting fit next to the other young players the Hawks have assembled.
Sengun is a relatively mobile big with great touch around the basket, a high basketball IQ and decent upside as a passer. He won’t be an elite defender or add much stretch but he can definitely raise the floor for a team like the Knicks.
Garuba has terrific size, athleticism and mobility and should be excellent as a rim-protector, rebounder and defending in space. On offense, he’ll be mostly a screener and lob threat but has the potential to add a bit more diversity to his game.
Dashien Nix didn’t finish or shoot the ball particularly well with the G League Ignite team but he’s a point guard with great strength, size (6-foot-5) and vision who knows how to make use of what he does well — averaging 6.0 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game. Nix would give the Warriors a diversity of skill in the backcourt and be able to help right away.
Off-the-dribble creation isn’t pretty far down the Celtics’ list of priorities, but Cooper is too good for Boston to let him fall any farther. He has incredible handle and is the most creative passer in the class. He’ll need to prove he can make shots off the dribble but he’s a lottery-level talent and could give the Celtics flexibility to look for different solutions for other roster holes.
Jones has fantastic size, mobility and shot-blocking potential. His offensive game is still very raw but he’s made 18-of-50 3-point shots across two seasons and there is potential for him to grow into a more versatile player. Even if he’s just a rim-protector and vertical floor-spacer he would plenty of utility for a young team like the Wizards with their loaded backcourt.
The Memphis Grizzlies have built an impressive young core with a slew of high-upside picks over the past few years. Ja Morant is a star and Memphis is still hoping Jaren Jackson Jr. will become one when he’s back on the court healthy. Players like Brandon Clarke, Xavier Tillman, Tyus Jones, De’Anthony Melton and Desmond Bane look like solid and versatile complementary pieces. And if Justise Winslow can return to form, he could be a game-changer. But the current roster is still very reliant on Morant for offensive playmaking and perimeter scoring from players who can create their own shot is an obvious spot to upgrade the roster.
Bouknight has been out with an elbow injury but was averaging 20.1 points per game before he went out, largely on a diet of self-created opportunities. His 3-point efficiency leaves plenty to be desired but, again, he’s taking plenty of tough shots and sharing the floor with other creators should help refine his shot selection and improve his outside efficiency. Inside the arc, he’s been sterling though — shooting 67.3 percent on shots at the rim and racking up 10.7 free-throw attempts per 100 possessions.
He’s not an elite defender but he has decent size and has generated a healthy number of steals and blocks this season. If he could become a knockdown spot-up threat he could be the ideal backcourt complement to Morant and the secondary creator that helps take this offense to the next level.
Sharpe looks like a less explosive version of Bam Adebayo — a paint-bound big with excellent touch and passing instincts with plenty of defensive upside. It feels like a stereotype to just assign every unconventional player type to the Spurs and assume they’ll be able to get the best out of them but … you know, they just keep doing it, year after year.
The Spurs have young talent in the backcourt and on the wing and with DeMar DeRozan’s contract expiring now is the time for them to fully pivot towards youth. There isn’t anyone with the potential to be a transformational star on the roster right now. Sharpe probably doesn’t have that upside but there aren’t many players who do at the end of the lottery. However, Sharpe’s defensive upside and strong passing ability raises the floor, meshes well with their guards and sets the table for them to keep chasing the next leader of this team.
Check out our full scouting report for more on Day’Ron Sharpe.
After getting eliminated by the Washington Wizards in the play-in tournament a frustrating season for the Pacers has come to an end. They have a lot to figure out over the next few months including, potentially, a head coaching change. They’ll likely be looking to re-sign T.J. McConnell and perhaps looking for a replacement for Doug McDermott but, assuming everyone is healthy and on the same page as the coaching staff, this is a playoff roster without a ton of obvious holes.
Springer duplicates plenty of attributes that are already on the roster but he’s a special player who could be useful in the present and future. He is a solid shooter and creator who is comfortable playing on and off the ball. At the other end of the floor he’s a strong and committed defender with the size and strength to hold up against both backcourt positions and potentially even smaller wings. At his ceiling, he’s shades of Jrue Holiday, a player who can fit in multiple roles depending on what the team around him needs.
With a pair of lottery picks, the Orlando Magic get two chances to add some talent and offensive firepower. In this lottery simulation neither lands in the slam dunk, top tier where the picks are obvious so with each they need to decide exactly what they value most. They can use help in a variety of areas but perhaps none is more pressing than outside shooting. From the trade deadline on, the Magic ranked 28th in 3-point attempts per game and dead-last in the league in 3-point percentage at just 31.7 percent.
Moody projects as a 3-and-D specialist with good size on the wing, solid defensive instincts and a developed profile as a shooter, both off the dribble and off movement. However, he’s also shown considerable upside as a slasher and secondary creator this season averaging 19.9 points and 6.9 free throw attempts per 40 minutes. A 3-and-D-plus wing may not be that exciting for Magic fans but it’s an archetype that could help next season and Moody has the upside to be an interesting piece for future iterations of this team.
The Kings seemed to be shopping Harrison Barnes at the deadline, it might be time for them to cut bait on Marvin Bagley and Buddy Hield is looking less and less important with the breakouts by Haliburton and Fox. As changes seem inevitable it would be nice to add another solid shooter who can hold up on defense and won’t really take anything off the table.
Kispert makes a lot of sense as a long-term Barnes replacement. Even though he’s an older prospect with a, presumably, lower upside he could be an important long-term piece for the Kings. Kispert is an elite shooter, especially off movement, and should be able to pick his spots attacking off the dribble at the next level, even though he’s an average athlete. He’s also a very good team defender who puts the effort in on the ball and should be able to handle some 3s and some 4s, depending on the matchup. It’s maybe not the most exciting pick but it definitely makes the Kings better for the short- and long-term.
The Raptors ended up not trading Kyle Lowry but it’s clear there are some fairly big changes coming for this roster. At this range of the draft they’re unlikely to find an already defined piece they could select to intentionally anchor and shape a specific vision for the next iteration of this team. But there are plenty of players like Johnson — immensely talented, versatile and malleable enough to grow along with the rest of a roster in flux.
Johnson is going to be a poster dunk machine at the next level but he’s also one of the strongest wing defenders in the class, with an enticing mix of physical tools and relentless intensity. The Raptors already have a strong set of wing defenders in OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam but Johnson helps build on strength.
On offense, he’s still very much a project. He shot under 30 percent from the 3-point line as a freshman and finished with more turnovers than assists. But he came to basketball late and has already shown tremendous growth as a passer and secondary creator. As he gets more reps he’s going to become a more polished scorer and could complement a variety of primary pieces.
Johnson played just 13 games before leaving Duke to focus on preparing for the NBA Draft and both the way he left and his play to start the college season didn’t do a ton to help his draft stock. He’ll draw some Draymond Green comparisons, particularly if he ends up with the Warriors, thank to his size, defensive upside and passing ability. But Johnson is a much more explosive athlete and could have much more upside than Green as a scorer, even if his 8-of-14 3-point shooting at Duke is a bit of a mirage.
Johnson may need some time to really figure out how to use his athleticism and skill against NBA competition, which may not fit with the Warriors’ timeline, especially since Jameis Winston turned out to be a bigger project than they expected. Still he’s a talented and versatile piece with star potential and could help the team start transitioning towards the future.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are still early in their rebuild but they already have a centerpiece in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. What makes their set-up even more interesting is all the versatility in their pieces. Gilgeous-Alexander can play on or off the ball and defend three positions, as can Lu Dort. Aleksej Pokuševski is 7-foot but handles the ball like a guard and looks most interesting running in transition and creating off the dribble. And Darius Bazley is a combo forward with defensive upside and a developing offensive game.
Adding Barnes feels like playing to the same theme and leaning into what makes the current core special. He’s a strong defensive prospect who can defend both wings and bigs and has value both in space or anchoring around the rim. On offense, his jumper is a big question mark but he basically functioned as a point guard from the 4 for Florida State and leveraging his face-up game and ball-handling ability lets Oklahoma City put Poku and Gilgeous-Alexander in all sorts of different offensive scenarios. It’s a bit of risk given the overlap with some of the pieces already in place but the Thunder have enough other picks coming to hedge later on.
The Magic are starting from scratch, after trading Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic at last year’s trade deadline. Jonathan Isaac and Markelle Fultz will both be, hopefully, returning healthy. Mo Bamba played well with his role increasing, Wendell Carter Jr. looks like a solid contributor and Cole Anthony got plenty of meaningful developmental minutes, even if his shooting percentage are still a disaster. The Magic need a star, particularly on offense, to hold these parts together but they aren’t likely to find that kind of player in the middle of the lottery.
Wagner, however, offers a different kind of solution with the shooting, passing and complementary creation ability to be connective tissue on offense, making things easy for everyone else even if he’s not scoring 20 points a game or dominating in isolation. Wagner is also an excellent team defender and will help raise the floor for the Magic in a variety of ways. He’s the perfect complementary player for a future iteration of this team that lands a star in some other way.
The Pistons appeared to have landed a huge win in last year’s draft when Killian Hayes dropped to No. 7. The versatile guard was seen as one of the highest-floor and highest-upside players in the draft but a hip injury has cost him most of the season. It’s allowed for the emergence of Jerami Grant but also cost them plenty of opportunities to see their young pieces together and plan for the future.
Falling to No. 5 would be a major disappointment in some ways, but Green is an elite athletic talent who could both play with Hayes and grow into a potential star on the wing to anchor the rebuild. He’s explosive in transition and attacking the basket, although he still needs refinement with his handle and pull-up shooting to really grow into a complete three-level scorer. His defense is also a work in progress but he has all the tools to be an absolute game-changer at that end of the floor.
The Pistons are still in the position of needing to swing for the fences and take the best player available. And even if he’s a bit further from his ceiling than some of the wings still on the board, he’s worth the risk.
Honestly, this is a dream scenario for the Pelicans — both jumping up to No. 4 and finding Jalen Suggs waiting for them. Suggs’ competitiveness and well-rounded game would help raise the Pelicans’ floor immediately and his versatility means that drafting him wouldn’t preclude re-signing Lonzo Ball or continuing to develop Kira Lewis as a long-term point guard.
Suggs has the size, strength and quickness to defend both guard positions and he competes hard at that end. On offense, he has value as both a shooter and creator but playing off established scorers and creators like Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and potentially Ball mean he won’t have to carry the load of trying to be a full-time point guard immediately. In addition to this being a perfect scenario for the Pelicans, Suggs benefits tremendously. He lands with a team pushing to make the playoffs and with a talented supporting cast that will allow him to grow into his NBA skill set.
The Hornets hit a home run with LaMelo Ball in last year’s draft and this season was a huge step forward, even if it fell short of the actual playoffs. Every part of their guard and wing rotation has looked solid and even more complementary than they could have hoped. The next step is adding depth and diversity in the frontcourt. The Hornets would probably love to get someone who could split time between the 4 and 5 but once Evan Mobley is off the board there’s really no one else in this range who makes sense.
Positionally, Kuminga probably duplicates a lot of what the Hornets already have with Miles Bridges and P.J. Washington but his athletic tools mean he could play with a force the current roster doesn’t currently have. Kuminga has the potential for a versatile, skilled game but it will take time to develop. In the interim, he’ll benefit a ton from playing with the space and creators the Hornets already have in their offense.
The Cavaliers faded quickly this season but they have to feel encouraged by the development of their backcourt. Collin Sexton took another step forward and Darius Garland rebounded from a rough rookie season to flash the strong shooting potential that was such a big part of his pre-draft profile. The Cavs also landed Jarrett Allen as their long-term center but additional depth in the frontcourt is the next step to building towards the playoffs.
Mobley may be best playing lots of minutes at the 5 but he’s versatile and mobile enough to be a great complement with Allen. He’s an elite rim protector who is agile enough to more than handle himself in space and has the instincts to be useful on or off the ball. On offense, he’s an elite finisher with soft touch and a variety of post- and face-up moves. The range on his jumper should eventually extend to the 3-point line and he’s already a very good mid-range shooter. Oh, and he’s an excellent passer. Mobley is the clear second-best player in this class, behind Cunningham, and his combination of talent and fit would be huge for the Cavaliers.
Cade Cunningham is a slam dunk as the No. 1 pick in the draft, a uniquely versatile, two-way building block who can immediately put the Rockets back on the trajectory towards something special. On offense, he’s an elite passer, creator and pull-up shooter without any real weaknesses. There are some questions about whether he can toggle those skills towards explosive scoring outbursts but there’s every reason to think he will be a 20-point-per-game scorer who regularly ranks among the league leaders in assists.
He’s also a versatile and strong defensive prospect, with the size, agility and savvy to handle a variety of assignments. While his individual star potential is enough to make him the No. 1 pick, his versatility is icing on the cake. Because he can handle so many different offensive and defensive roles he can slot next to a wide variety of complementary players which is a huge asset for a team like the Rockets still early in the rebuilding process.
Check out our full scouting report for more on Cade Cunningham.