The Detroit Pistons won the NBA Draft Lottery and the rest of the order is set, bringing clarity to our latest 2021 NBA Mock Draft.
The draft lottery has set the order for our latest NBA Mock Draft, putting the Detroit Pistons in the driver’s seat and extra picks in the hands of the Orlando Magic and Golden State Warriors.
Who is rising and falling in our latest NBA Mock Draft?
The analysis of each individual player here relies heavily on the insights of draft experts like Trevor Magnotti, Ben Pfiefer and Jackson Frank. Each pick is not necessarily a guess at who each team will or even should take, just a hopefully insightful match between prospect skill and upside and each team’s need.
And if you’re looking at any of these picks wondering what the heck I was thinking, just remember that mock drafts are made to be mocked.
The Jazz excelled this year with a wealth of shooters and creators around the perimeter. However, their perimeter defense was exposed by the Clippers. Bagley has an exceptional frame for a wing, strong at 6-foot-7 with a 6-foot-11 wingspan. He looks like the kind of 3-and-D wing who could help improve the Jazz on that end without taking much off the table as a floor-spacer.
The Suns are primed for a championship run and have the luxury of using the draft to plug hypothetical roles for the future. Nix is a big (6-foot-5) point guard with defensive upside who wins with strength and savvy, and could provide some nice backcourt depth and versatility down the road.
Prkacin is an athletic combo forward with potential upside as a shooter and creator off the dribble. His outside jumper needs to get more reliable and he’ll have to prove his creation upside holds up against NBA athletes. But even his floor as a lane-filler and high-energy slasher could be useful for the 76ers.
Murphy is an excellent shooter with the size (6-foot-9) and willingness to be a meaningful defender across a few different positions. He might never offer more than that 3-and-D package but that’s honestly all the Nets need right now.
Mann is an excellent shooter and shot-creator who could help cover for some of what the Nuggets are missing in the absence of Jamal Murray. His passing and defense likely cap him as a second-unit guy but the Nuggets could certainly use another creator off the bench.
Sharpe would give the Clippers a different kind of frontcourt depth. He’s very much a ground- and paint-bound big but he moves well enough to defend a little in space, he’s a good rim-protector and an excellent passer who can help keep the ball moving in the halfcourt.
Hyland will be limited by his size defensively and his score-first mentality prevents him from being a full-time lead guard. But he’s an elite pull-up shooter and shot-maker who should have value as a second-unit microwave scorer type.
Jackson is a very familiar archetype — the rim-protecting, vertical-spacing, run-and-jump big man. But even if he’s limited to that role he can be useful to the Rockets as they look to start over.
Mitchell will be higher on some draft boards and not just because of his championship run at Baylor. His defensive intensity and shot-making give him a real shot at a long NBA career. But he measured at just 6-foot without shoes which really limits him positionally since he’s probably not a full-time point guard. He’d be fantastic with the Lakers though, potentially as an Alex Caruso replacement, and the kind of no-nonsense young player LeBron would love.
Duarte could be a special get for the Knicks. He has a skillset and approach that should easily translate to being a consistent 3-and-D wing contributor at the next level, but his experience as a primary scorer at Oregon also gives him a bit more upside with bench units.
Thor is a bit of an offensive project but he’s an athlete with the size, mobility and defensive awareness to be a difference-maker against in a variety of situations. If he continues to develop his outside shot and handle he could be a Pascal Siakam-type.
Kispert has to prove he can hold up on defense against NBA athletes and attack closeouts and mismatches enough to not be one-dimensional on offense. But he’s an elite shooter, both spotting up and off-movement, and he should help add plenty of space to a Knicks’ offense that was starved for it in the playoffs.
With so many picks, in this draft and over the next few, the Thunder have the luxury of exploring a variety of player archetypes and figuring out how they fit together later. As a ground-bound big with average athleticism, Sengun might not have a spot on a lot of other rosters but his passing, touch around the basket and high basketball IQ could make him a useful piece for the Thunder.
Williams really struggled with his jumper in one season at Stanford but there are plenty of reasons to think it was a blip. He’s a skilled slasher and pull-up shooter who should have upside on and off the ball.
Bouknight was averaging 20.1 points per game before he went out with an injury, largely on a diet of self-created opportunities. His 3-point efficiency leaves plenty to be desired but, again, he’s taking plenty of tough shots and sharing the floor with other creators should help refine his shot selection and improve his outside efficiency. He doesn’t have much upside as anything besides a scorer but the Thunder have the picks to take some chances and could certainly use another backcourt creator.
The Wizards just missed making the playoffs and would probably love to nab a player here who can help them right away. Jones is definitely not that, an athletic 6-foot-11 big whose upside is tied to his mobility, handle and outside shooting potential. But the Wizards haven’t hit a draft home run in a while and at this range, they’re probably better off taking a big swing.
The Warriors did end up getting the Minnesota Timberwolves’ top-three protected pick (more on that later) so they have the luxury of making two lottery selections in this draft as they look to reload for another title run. Assuming a trade doesn’t materialize they’ll likely be hoping for players who can augment what their stars do without taking much off the table. Barnes certainly fits the bill, although the inevitable Draymond Green comparisons he’ll get are probably a bridge too far.
At 6-foot-9, Barnes essentially functioned as Florida State’s point guard last season and his ball-handling and special passing ability made it work. But he has the size and strength to defend 4s and bigger 3s and the quickness and length to stay in front of smaller wings at the next level. That will let him slot in as a versatile hybrid role player, filling different niches at both ends depending on the matchups. His shooting is very much a work in progress but the Warriors hopefully won’t need him to score points next year, just help on defense and keep the ball moving.
You’ll find Kuminga ranked much higher on many other big boards and mock drafts but I’m finding myself increasingly swayed by analysis of him as a player with incredible physical tools but very few NBA-ready skills. He wasn’t measured at the combine but Kuminga clearly has an NBA body with the size and strength to handle 3s and 4s. He’s an explosive athlete and leaper but at this point, his athletic advantage is his only clear attribute.
Kuminga is a decent shot-blocker but not really a net positive as a defender due to deficits in awareness and effort. He can get to the basket and finish but only really be blowing past people or powering through them. He’s not an outside shooter and his passing ability is still very much a work in progress. For most of the teams above this slot, I think skill could be more appealing than Kuminga’s raw potential. However, for the Spurs, a team with a terrific track record of skill development and a need for frontcourt depth, he makes a lot more sense.
If you assume that health and a coaching change will fix much of what ailed the Pacers this past season, you’re looking at a playoff roster without a ton of holes. The only obvious opening is the potential departure of T.J. McConnell, who was a huge difference-maker as the second-unit point guard. Cooper would present a completely different look there — he’s nowhere near the defensive pest that McConnel is. But what he offers at the other end is perhaps far more valuable.
Cooper is an elite ball-handler who is impossible to keep out of the lane and his high-level passing creates a slew of open and unexpected shots for his teammates. His potential as a facilitator is sky-high. His upside is limited by his defensive potential and his shaky shooting at this point, although as Brian Schroeder pointed out, “he’s obviously never had to shoot jumpers until now,” because no one could keep him out of the paint. However, Cooper measured a little bigger than expected at the combine — 6-foot-4.75 with shoes on — which may ease some of the size-related defensive concerns. And on the Pacers, with so many other scorers and shooters, he can focus on facilitating with the second unit and slowly let his own scoring and shooting abilities develop.
LaMelo Ball helped elevate the Hornets this season and they already have so much depth in the backcourt and on the wings with Terry Rozier, Devonte’ Graham and a possibly re-signed Malik Monk. Their frontcourt rotation even worked with two undersized forwards — Miles Bridges and P.J. Washington — working together. The next step for this team is finding a big man who can be a defensive anchor, and add another dimension to their offense with his roll game while not fundamentally warping the identity of their high-wire, guard-focused offense.
At 6-foot-8 and 235 pounds, Garuba may be undersized for trying to stonewall the Joel Embiids and Nikola Jokics of the NBA in the post but he’s an exceptional athlete and a fantastic defender in space. His enormous wingspan also helps him step up as a shot-blocker and he can absolutely raise the Hornets’ defensive floor. On offense, he’s not much of a scorer but he can finish around the basket, he’s a decent passer and his relentless motor will make him a force on the offensive glass and crashing the paint in the pick-and-roll. He may not have the star potential of some of the other players in this range, but his floor is high and he’s a round peg in a round hole for the Hornets.
The Pelicans come into this draft with a bit of pressure. They missed the playoffs, they’ve already parted ways with Stan Van Gundy and are looking for a new head coach, they have a big decision to make on re-signing Lonzo Ball and there are rumblings that Zion Williamson’s family isn’t happy with the talent the team has put around him [enormous eye roll]. Looking at all those variables the Pelicans may opt for a more conventional play here — a high-upside athlete like Jonathan Kuminga or a familiar scorer archetype on the wing like James Bouknight or Zaire Williams. But I just love the idea of Josh Giddey here too much.
Giddey is definitely an unconventional player — a 6-foot-8 point guard who is a terrific passer and relentless driver. He’s a solid athlete, competes at the defensive end and there’s every reason to think that what he does well should translate easily to the NBA. What he doesn’t do quite as well is shoot or score — he averaged just 10.9 points per game and shot under 30 percent from beyond the arc in 28 NBL games last season. But when you already have Zion and Brandon Ingram, scoring doesn’t seem as important and floor spacers can be found for cheap in other places. Let Giddey work as a creator around the rest of the Pelicans pieces and you’re going to have a fascinating result.
Johnson is an interesting player with terrific two-way talent but some serious question marks (and not just because he left Duke after 13 games to prepare for the NBA Draft). Johnson has the size, strength and mobility to be a full-time 4 and probably defend some 3s and 5s depending on the matchup. He also is clearly an impact player at that end, generating a combined 6.2 steals and blocks per 100 possessions at Duke.
On offense, he’s a terrific passer, especially in the open court, and his grab-and-go potential leading the fastbreak is going to be a legit weapon. His shooting touch is a bit more of a question mark — he made 8-of-18 3-pointers but his mechanics aren’t exactly smooth and he was not aggressive hunting his jumper.
He seems like an interesting fit with the Kings, filling a positional need, adding defensive upside and creating a fun combination of creators and facilitators with De’Aaron Fox and Tyrese Haliburton. At the very least, they’d instantly become one of the most fun fastbreak teams in the league.
The Magic shifted towards a rebuild mid-season, moving Nikola Vucevic, Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier, leaving their offensive cupboard uncomfortably bare. Even with the healthy return of Markelle Fultz and Jonathan Isaac this team is going to be missing shot-makers, creators and the kind of role players who can move the ball and space the floor, greasing the wheels for everyone else.
Wagner definitely falls in the latter categories. He’s a terrific shooter with his feet set, off the dribble and running off screens and all three could be hugely important to the Magic next season. He also creates problems for the defense with his ability to pass and attack off the dribble at his size (6-foot-9). At the other end of the floor, he should be a solid individual defender and potentially a very strong team one. Wagner is probably not the star leading the next iteration of this team but he’s a high-level role player who can make things easier in a variety of ways for whoever that next star turns out to be.
The Warriors would have preferred if Minnesota’s pick landed a little higher but fell outside the top three, so they did end up with the extra selection. Taking Barnes with their own pick gives them a high-level defender and versatile frontcourt passer who can hopefully play a meaningful role right away. If they don’t package these two picks in a trade for an established star, adding some scoring and creation at No. 7 seems like the play.
Moody has a great physical profile for a wing, at 6-foot-6 and 210 pounds with strong athleticism. He competes at the defensive end and his smooth jumper sets his floor as a solid 3-and-D role player. His ceiling is tied to his potential shooting off movement and attacking to create his own shot. It remains to be seen how he’ll handle NBA defenders but he was adept at getting into the paint at Arkansas and averaged 9.2 free throws per 100 possessions as a freshman. He should be able to grow into a 3-and-D-plus wing who can attack closeouts and mismatches and maybe even work as a secondary creator in second units. And of course, all of those things work much better with Stephen Curry spacing the floor.
In this mock, the Thunder have already landed a versatile big man and a shot-making wing in Alperen Sengun and James Bouknight. Neither has an incredibly high ceiling but they’re both interesting pieces who add skill and versatility to a young roster still taking shape. Here, with the No. 6 pick they can take a home run swing on pure upside.
Johnson is already a high-level defender, making a difference with his elite athleticism and absurdly competitive motor. At 6-foot-5 and 185 pounds, he’s mostly defending backcourt players and smaller wings but he definitely has the versatility to move across positions and defending primary creators at the point of attack. On offense, he’s still figuring out how to use his considerable athletic advantages but there’s a pathway to him being a strong slasher and scorer given his quickness and leaping ability. He’s still developing as a shooter but he showed some upside as a passer.
Johnson has a very wide range of possible outcomes but at his ceiling he could be a devastating star complement to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
The Magic will be looking for offensive firepower and star upside in this draft but unfortunately, fall just outside the range where those things feel assured. Springer here may be a reach (compared to some other public mock drafts) but I think he offers Orlando one of the best combinations of floor and ceiling at this slot.
Springer is a powerful 6-foot-4 guard who makes a difference at both ends of the floor. He’s still developing as a primary creator but he’s as good a bet for a high-level lead guard as the Magic can make in this range. And, his ability as a spot-up shooter raises his floor and means he should be able to work well next to Cole Anthony and Markelle Fultz. Defensively he’s also one of the strongest guard prospects in this class. If everything breaks right for him, he could be a Jrue Holiday-type player. He may not be a game-changer on his own but, in combination with Wagner, he’ll make the Magic better defensively and give them much more skill and versatility on offense.
Besides the Detroit Pistons, the Toronto Raptors were probably the draft’s biggest winner. They moved up three spots and find themselves picking near the top of a deep group of second-tier players, giving them more options for targeting the specific kind of player who fits for their future. And there is no better fit for the Raptors than Jalen Suggs.
It seems likely that Kyle Lowry could be gone this offseason, opening a spot in the Raptors backcourt. Suggs is a strong shooter, an elite athlete, a committed defender with good size and a developing creator and facilitator. He’s a lovely fit next to Fred VanVleet, taking some of the responsibility off both players for being a primary initiator on offense and his versatility and skill set will be huge on a team that already has several key pieces in place. Perhaps, most importantly, Suggs is ready to make a positive impact right away for a Raptors’ team that has its eyes on a quick return to the playoffs.
The Cavaliers moved up to the No. 3 spot but find themselves in a weird position. The last few drafts have given the Cavaliers a load of talent and potential in the backcourt and on the wings. Darius Garland, Collin Sexton and Isaac Okoro all impressed in different ways last season and as a grouping, that trio makes a lot of sense on paper. However, the Cavs land in a draft position where they’d probably have to make a questionable reach to avoid taking another backcourt player.
Green is a pure scoring guard with explosive athleticism and slashing ability. He’s still refining his outside shot but he certainly looks the part of a dominant three-level scorer. Green has solid defensive tools but is still figuring out how to use them effectively and his defensive upside and growth as a passer will ultimately set his ceiling. He definitely duplicates skills that are already on the Cavs roster but he’s likely the best player available at this point and gives the Cavaliers the flexibility to explore adapting their roster in other ways down the line.
The Houston Rockets have to be disappointed at missing out on the top pick but they were only jumped by a single team and, most importantly, they avoided dropping to the No. 5 slot and having to send this pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder. Adding Cade Cunningham would be fantastic but Evan Mobley is a pretty decent consolation prize.
Mobley is a big man with great size (7-feet), skill and athletic tools who also has the potential to be a two-way star. On offense, he’s an elite finisher around the basket with the fluidity and handle to face-up and attack from well outside the paint, creating his own shot. He has a very reliable mid-range jumper making him a pick-and-pop threat. He’s not a 3-point shooter at this point — just 12-of-40 (30 percent) as a freshman — but he certainly looks like someone who could become an outside threat. On defense is where his upside really comes together, with special shot-blocking instincts and the ability to be highly disruptive in space. Questions for him will be about his lack of strength and how quickly he can extend his shooting range but his upside is tremendous.
The Detroit Pistons got exactly what they were looking for, cashing in a 14 percent chance at the No. 1 pick to land in the top spot. They’re early enough in their rebuild that star power is more important than the particular package that star power comes in and they can feel comfortable opting for the floor- and ceiling-raising potential of Cade Cunningham.
Cunningham is a versatile wing with terrific size, strength and skill, and the potential to be a two-way star. On offense, there’s really nothing he can’t do — he’s an elite passer, creator and pull-up shooter who’s also comfortable playing off the ball or taking a smaller defender down in the post. At 6-foot-7 and with strong defensive tools, instincts and motor he can handle a variety of matchups while filling the role of primary creator and initiator on offense. If there are any questions about his upside they’ll come down to a lack of athletic explosiveness but he more than makes up for it with his body control and skill level. A Luka Doncic comparison feels wild but that’s the kind of role he would play on offense, with potentially more defensive upside.
Cunningham can easily share the backcourt with last year’s first-round pick Killian Hayes and he’ll make things infinitely easier for Jerami Grant, Saddiq Bey and Isaiah Stewart. Things are definitely looking up in Detroit.
Check out our full scouting report for more on Cade Cunningham.