The 2021 MLB Draft is just days away. Here’s how it could play out.
All eyes will be on Vanderbilt pitchers Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter, who is the son the MLB great Al Leiter. However, there’s a good chance the top selection will be neither of those two.
Rather, that honor could go to one of a trio of high school shortstops.
Marcelo Mayer, Brady House and Jordan Lawler all fit the modern frame in the hole, similar to a Fernando Tatis, Jr. or Trevor Story type — a tall, rangy shortstop who can make highlight-reel plays look easy, and also supply an astounding amount of power at their best.
2021 MLB Mock Draft: Picking the top-5
The MLB Draft often lacks the popularity and flare of some of the other showcases, such as the NBA and NFL, because it takes said prospects a few years to reach the top-tier of professional sports. Very rarely does a, say, Leiter, start in the major leagues right away. Even Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg, two of the more hyped-up draftees in recent memory, spent some time fine-tuning in the minors. It’s just the way of the baseball world.
Having the Draft on the same weekend of the Home Run Derby and All-Star Game doesn’t help matters, either, and the league should take a big, fat L for that dimwitted decision.
For our part, though, the FanSided team has taken a crack at how the top-5 will shake out. Frankly, it’s anyone’s guess, but you might as well listen to the folks who might know a thing or two.
MLB Mock Draft: Pittsburgh Pirates select Marcelo Mayer
“In the baseball draft a team should always look to go best player available, especially with the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. While there has been a lot of debate on this it appears that this player is Marcelo Mayer. Both MLB Pipeline and FanGraphs have Mayer as the top rated player in the draft. That said, for a period of time it appeared the best player in the draft was another prep shortstop in Jordan Lawlar. Personally, I will be excited with either Mayer or Lawlar. As for who the Pirates should draft, they should draft whichever of the two they believe has the highest ceiling as a MLB hitter.” – Rum Bunter site editor Marty Leap
The Pirates farm system has plenty of high-ranking prospects, but when a talent like Mayer comes around, you don’t pass him up. System depth is meaningless if none of those players become Major League level talents. Mayer is certainly one of those.
Selecting a high school player also aligns itself well with the Pirates rebuild, which surely has a few years remaining. At just 18, Mayer can take his time adjusting to professional life and make his way to the big leagues at his own pace. Mayer has tremendous power at the position and possesses all the tools one looks for in a No. 1, face of the franchise selection.
“Mayer should be 1-1, and I don’t think it should really be a conversation,” one scouting executive told FanGraphs. “In terms of pound-for-pound talent, he’s the number one guy. Left-handed, good stick, future power, and plays up the middle.”
The debate between Mayer and fellow shortstop Jordan Lawler has quieted in recent weeks, with Mayer emerging as the clear No. 1 target. He will likely be a Pittsburgh Pirate, barring anything unforeseen.
MLB Mock Draft: Texas Rangers select Jack Leiter
“In my opinion, Texas should select RHP Jack Leiter out of Vanderbilt. The Rangers have a clear need for frontline starting pitching in their system, as they mostly lack it outside of No. 3 prospect Cole Winn. Leiter would immediately boost the Rangers’ farm, while also giving credence to the organization’s belief that 2023 is a reachable goal to return to contention. Not to mention, many Rangers fans are clamoring for Leiter to end up in Arlington, so the pick would be hugely popular. Texas has been linked to other shortstop prospects as well, and I’ve heard they love Mayer. Since he’s expected to go to Pittsburgh, though, Jordan Lawlar has been mocked frequently to the Rangers. I can’t see them passing on Leiter if he’s there, however.” – Nolan Writin site editor Seth Carlson.
For months, Leiter was competing against his own teammate in fellow Vanderbilt pitcher Kumar Rocker for the top pitcher selection in this class. Unlike Rocker, Leiter could still threaten to go back to school if he doesn’t like his selection or financial slot. That seems relatively unlikely at this juncture.
Per FanGraphs, “Scouts with other teams speculated to us that Leiter better fits Texas’ self-perceived competitive timeline, and that they have the bonus pool flex to get a deal done even if Leiter’s camp sees this market as sub-optimal.”
As mentioned above, it seems as though Leiter’s camp would prefer Texas or Boston as a landing spot for the son of the former major-league pitcher. Leiter should be able to make his way through the minors fairly quickly. He finished his collegiate career with a 13-4 record, and a 2.08 ERA.
MLB Mock Draft: Detroit Tigers select Brady House
“For the third selection, the Detroit Tigers select Brady House, a shortstop out of Winder, Georgia. Standing at 6-3, 215 pounds, he could play short or even third base. He has a massive power tool and for the Tigers — this lines up well with the recent selection of Spencer Torkelson. They need more power in their system. While his tools suggest he is a fringe defender, if he can pick up spin and hit the ball, I believe the Tigers will find a place for him in the lineup. This pick is risky as Detroit has struggled to develop high school talent in the past but if their most recent high school position player selection in Riley Greene is any indication, perhaps Detroit is getting better.” – Motor City Bengals site editor Rogelio Castillo
The draft of the modern shortstop takes another turn with House. He’s a big-bodied, rangy player. He has the makeup of an eventual power hitter, which is very attractive to MLB teams.
The Athletic compared House, best-case scenario, to a Kris Bryant-type, though he does struggle to catch up to high velocity at the moment. That could just be the product of facing high school pitching, and something he can adjust to with the right coaching at the next level. He hit .549 with eight home runs as a senior.
MLB Mock Draft: Boston Red Sox select Henry Davis
“Red Sox fans are hoping that Jack Leiter falls to them at No. 4 since the franchise hasn’t had a top pitching prospect emerge from their system in a long time. If he’s off the board, Louisville catcher Henry Davis should be our top choice. The first-place Red Sox aren’t expecting to pick anywhere near this high again anytime soon so there’s significant pressure to nail this draft pick. A college bat would be safer and ready to contribute at the major leagues sooner than the elite high school shortstops available near the top of the draft. Boston has some enticing catching prospects in their system but none with the ceiling that Davis possesses. His potential arrival in the majors could line up with when the 30-year-old Christian Vazquez begins to fade.” – BoSox Injection site editor Sean Penney
The Red Sox clearly prefer Leiter here, and if he’s available, expect them to rush to the podium. Davis isn’t a bad consolation prize, however.
Davis has emerged as the best collegiate bat available in this draft class, and is no slouch defensively either. His slash line of .380/.482/.663 in his final season at Louisville are straight video game numbers.
The Red Sox could very well price Leiter down to them, offering his camp a $7 million price tag, as FanGraphs wrote in one of their latest MLB Draft pieces. That feels a bit more like mock draft fan fiction than reality at this point, however.
Assuming no financial steps are taken to ensure Leiter falls to Boston, expect them to take the next-best-thing, and be better off for it in a strong catching prospect like Davis.
MLB Mock Draft: Baltimore Orioles select Kahlil Watson
“As Orioles GM Mike Elias has shown during his tenure, the exercise of going under slot in the first round is one the team is comfortable with. To build a healthy farm system, a team has to be successful in the later rounds of the draft and a prep bat like Kahlil Watson may afford the team some extra cash in those spots. According to Prospects Live, Watson has “impressive raw power” and presents a similar skill set to Miami Marlins infielder Jazz Chisholm.” – Birds Watcher site editor Arrick Joel
Watson being coined a discount pick isn’t fair to him, as he’s ranked No. 4 per MLB.com’s prospect rankings for this draft class.
While only being listed at 5-foot-9, Watson has plenty of potential in the field. He’s improved his speed immensely in his senior season. He’s listed as a shortstop, but Watson’s tools make him the perfect pseudo-utility player, though perhaps more talented than most in that sense.
Watson has a surprising amount of power for his frame, making the Jose Altuve comparisons less-than-audacious for this prep bat out of North Carolina.
Baltimore could do far worse than selecting Watson, even though he comes at a discount. It’s the best of both worlds.