Making college football upset picks for Week 3 of the 2021 season as Alabama, Penn State and North Carolina could all be in danger on Saturday.
Another week early in the college football season and more upsets are already in the books. The biggest of last week might’ve been Oregon going to Columbus and knocking off Ohio State, the No. 3-ranked team in the country, but let’s not downplay USC losing so badly to Stanford that Clay Helton finally got ousted, or the fact Arkansas and BYU pretty much dominated Texas and Utah, respectively.
If you have any notion that things are going to level out, though, think again. There are a number of top 25 teams in Week 3 of the college football season who have tough matchups that could cost them an unexpected loss after four quarters of play.
So which teams are in danger of getting upset in Week 3? BetSided made their picks earlier this week, but there is some games our upset picks differ.
College football Week 3 upset alert No. 5: North Carolina Tar Heels
Rank: 21 | Opponent: Virginia Cavaliers | Time: Saturday, Sept. 18, 7:30 p.m. ET
Even though we’re only in the third full week of college football, Mack Brown and the North Carolina Tar Heels are no strangers to getting upset. In Week 1, they went on the road to Blacksburg and got pushed around by the Hokies and promptly freefell out of the top 10. Now another team from the Commonwealth of Virginia could cause some trouble.
Albeit against William & Mary and Illinois, the Virginia Cavaliers offense has looked incredibly dynamic to this point. Brennan Armstrong already has over 700 yards passing with seven touchdowns to just one interception on the season. Furthermore, they’ve displayed a defense that flies around.
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Now, they haven’t played a team with the talent of the Tar Heels or a quarterback like Sam Howell. But with two lines that are still finding their footing, North Carolina is in a spot where they have to be careful. If they come into this game with any kind of slow start, Virginia has proven to be an offense that could be hard to keep up with.
And even if they don’t fall behind early, North Carolina and Virginia could simply just get into a shootout in Chapel Hill. And as we all know, shootouts end up being a crapshoot as to who emerges victorious. So yet again, the Tar Heels have to be on alert for another upset that would derail a season that began with such high hopes.
College football Week 3 upset alert No. 4: Alabama Crimson Tide
Rank: 1 | Opponent: at 11 Florida Gators | Time: Saturday, Sept. 18, 3:30 p.m. ET
Despite what Nick Saban is saying in post-game press conferences and likely in the locker room, the Alabama Crimson Tide have looked quite infallible to this point. On a neutral field against Miami, they made the Hurricanes look like an FCS program. Then against Mercer, they looked as if they’d gotten out of bed five minutes before kickoff and still won by 34 points. On both sides of the ball and at virtually every position, this team is ready to contend.
At the same time, it’s still a young Alabama team, most importantly at quarterback with Bryce Young. We’ve seen uber-talented players such as Spencer Rattler, Sam Howell and even recruiting classmate D.J. Uiagalelei struggle at times when they have a tough matchup against a defense that can get after them. Florida’s defense, even against Bama’s elite offensive line, is capable of doing that and forcing Young into mistakes.
Moreover, while Emory Jones hasn’t looked terrific in two games for the Gators as the starter, the two-quarterback system with Anthony Richardson — who has been one of the most explosive players used very little so far this season — is dynamic. And for the Crimson Tide defense, those different looks could present a challenge.
There’s a reason Bama is heavily favored in this game. However, if there’s a team on the schedule that can make the Tide look mortal, the Gators might be that challenger.
College football Week 3 upset alert No. 3: Cincinnati Bearcats
Rank: 8 | Opponent: at Indiana Hoosiers | Time: Saturday, Sept. 18, Noon ET
It’s certainly been two different tales of how the 2021 season has started for the Cincinnati Bearcats and Indiana Hoosiers. For the former, things have gone as expected with blowout wins over Miami-Ohio and Murray State. The latter, however, got torched by Iowa in the opener before rebounding to beat Iowa.
That doesn’t mean the Hoosiers aren’t primed to pull off an upset at home, though. Because even if the Hawkeyes, now ranked as a top-10 team, pushed them around, Cincinnati isn’t going to be able to do the same.
Yes, we could take a lot about the playmaking of Indiana quarterback Michael Penix Jr. that could cause some problems but, for me, it all comes down to the trenches. While Desmond Ridder is mobile, he’s not immune to pressure. And a Cincinnati offensive line that lacks a bit of size and experience could very well get pushed around by a strong Hoosiers defensive front.
This should be a rock fight in which two dynamic quarterbacks, frankly, have a hard time moving the ball. But I trust the Indiana defensive line to find more success throughout four quarters, which could prove to be the difference in the game, either by forcing turnovers or simply not allowing the Bearcats to move the ball.
College football Week 3 upset alert No. 2: Miami Hurricanes
Rank: 24 | Opponent: Michigan State Spartans | Time: Saturday, Sept. 18, Noon ET
Manny Diaz and the Miami Hurricanes are becoming a staple of these weekly upset picks but how could they not? After getting boat-raced by Alabama in Week 1 and looking completely overmatched, they welcomed Appalachian State to town and needed a field goal with two minutes left to take a 25-23 lead and ultimately secure the win over a Sun Belt opponent.
Coming into the season, I’m not sure I would’ve highlighted Michigan State as a team that could pull off an upset of a ranked Power 5 opponent, even one that is clearly trying to find its footing as Miami is. But the Spartans have looked much friskier in wins over Northwestern and Youngstown State than expected.
Payton Thorne has emerged as a steady, efficient and better-than-expected quarterback thus far but running back Kenneth Walker III has been the breakout star with 321 yards and five touchdowns through two games. Not to mention, the defense has looked good as well.
At this point, it also looks as if Mel Tucker might just simply be a better coach than Manny Diaz. When you then consider just how pedestrian Miami has looked to this point and that the Spartans appear to only be gaining momentum, there is prime opportunity for an upset in Week 3 in Miami Gardens.
College football Week 3 upset alert No. 1: Penn State Nittany Lions
Rank: 10 | Opponent: 22 Auburn Tigers | Time: Saturday, Sept. 18, 7:30 p.m. ET
Let’s get this out of the way; I don’t believe Auburn upsets Penn State this week. Quarterback Bo Nix has traditionally struggled mightily to produce consistently enough to win against good defenses throughout his career and the Nittany Lions have proven already that they are stout on that side of the ball. It will be a dogfight but James Franklin’s team is my pick to win.
However, if we’re talking about conceivable upsets in Week 3, this game has to be mentioned as part of that equation for a couple of reasons.
The biggest of those is that Auburn truly enters this game as an unknown quantity. Anyone telling you that they can glean something about the Tigers because they put up 60 points on Akron and Alabama State is lying to you. All that means is that they have the athletes to dominate the vastly inferior competition, not that they are on the level of Penn State.
On top of that, though, Sean Clifford is another quarterback that hasn’t warranted a great deal of faith. I would argue he’s been better than Nix, but the margin isn’t wide. And if nothing else, Auburn has defensive talent to potentially force the Penn State quarterback into mistakes.
So yes, this isn’t a game I would predict will end in an upset. However, it’s most certainly plausible and possible, which is enough to put Penn State on upset alert this week.
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