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Ohio State football: How the Buckeyes make the College Football Playoff

By Patrick Schmidt

Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day walks the sideline during the second quarter of the NCAA football game against the Penn State Nittany Lions at Ohio Stadium in Columbus on Saturday, Oct. 30, 2021.Penn State At Ohio State Football
Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day walks the sideline during the second quarter of the NCAA football game against the Penn State Nittany Lions at Ohio Stadium in Columbus on Saturday, Oct. 30, 2021.Penn State At Ohio State Football /
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No. 4 Ohio State football controls its destiny to make a return to the College Football Playoff.

After finishing as the runners-up last year, Ohio State football has unfinished business they’d like to take care of this season.

The Buckeyes sit at No. 4 in the CFP rankings with two more weeks of the regular season left to play and a Big Ten Championship Game after that if they win those two games.

Ohio State hosts Michigan State on Nov. 20 and then travels to Ann Arbor to take on rival Michigan on Nov. 27.

If Ohio State wins both games, they’ll meet either Iowa or Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game where they will be prohibitive favorites.

How Ohio State football makes the College Football Playoff

The most direct path to the playoff for Ohio State football is to win out. If Ryan Day’s team does that, they’ll be in, and likely avoid Georgia in the first round, with a No. 3 seed. Potentially, No. 2 seed if Oregon loses. This all assumes Georgia beats Alabama in the SEC Championship Game to knock the Crimson Tide out of contention.

Can Ohio State get in the playoff with 2 losses?

This is unlikely barring a half-dozen top-9 teams losing in the final three weeks. It’s technically possible but not entirely plausible. Losing at home to Oregon removed the margin for error for the Buckeyes to lose and still have a chance to get in. Georgia is the only team with that luxury at this point.

The only way Ohio State can get in with two losses is if they are a two-loss Big Ten champion and Alabama, Oregon, Notre Dame lose and the Big 12 has a two-loss champ. The mathematical percentages of this all happening are probably about the same as winning the lottery. Best to avoid this scenario and beat Michigan State, Michigan and win the Big Ten. Do that, and they are in.

Lose once and it’s over.

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