The Orlando Magic won the NBA Draft lottery and the order is set. Find out who lands the biggest stars in our latest NBA Mock Draft.
The NBA Draft Lottery delivered the No. 1 pick to the Orlando Magic with the Oklahoma City Thunder, Houston Rockets, Sacramento Kings and Detroit Pistons rounding out the top five in that order. Most big boards have a three-man tier at the top of this draft, all big men, but there is plenty of depth and sleepers abound.
Who is rising and falling in our latest NBA Mock Draft?
The analysis of each individual player here relies heavily on the insights of draft experts like Brian Schroeder, Jeremy Woo and Kevin O’Connor. Each pick is not necessarily a guess at who each team will or even should take, just a hopefully insightful match between prospect skill and upside and each team’s need.
And if you’re looking at any of these picks wondering what the heck I was thinking, just remember that mock drafts are made to be mocked.
The Thunder have three first-round picks and can plug a lot of holes. Koloko adds frontcourt depth as an athletic shot-blocker and rim-runner with some potential passing upside. He also rounds out what the Thunder get with the No. 2 and No. 12 picks (more on that below).
Tyus Jones is a free agent and the Grizzlies may not be able to keep him. Montero needs to improve his efficiency but he’s a lightning-quick creator who could eventually sop up some second-unit point guard minutes as a microwave scorer.
Chandler probably wouldn’t fit into the Warriors’ immediate plans. But as a savvy ball-handler and aggressive, if undersized, point-of-attack defender he could be a useful piece around the long-term core of Moses Moody, Jonathan Kuminga, Jordan Poole and James Wiseman.
Williams is a skilled ball-handler and excellent shooter who projects as a high-level offensive player, capable of working on or off the ball. His defense may limit him to the second unit but he has good size and fits in with the versatile system the Heat are building.
Roddy is a big wing who works hard on defense, has developed as a shooter and has some upside as a secondary creator. The Mavericks are looking to compete right now and his skill set could be useful right away, adding two-way wing depth around Luka Doncic.
Dieng is projected much higher in some mocks and he’d be an absolute steal if he fell to the Spurs here. He’s young and raw, particularly as an outside shooter, but he’s a 6-foot-10 wing with smooth ball-handling and passing ability and plenty of defensive upside.
Baldwin Jr. was a highly rated prospect who turned in an unbelievably underwhelming freshman season. He may seem like a lazy pick given his Milwaukee ties but he has good size and still projects as an excellent shooter on a team that might need to replace some outside threats this summer.
Moore has an intriguing package of versatile skills but lacks the high-level athleticism to become a star. Still, he can shoot, create and defend and could be a useful depth piece right away as the Nets look to reload for next season.
The Grizzlies already have a lot of depth and have the luxury of spending picks on some players who might pay off later. Kessler is an elite shot-blocker and excellent finisher around the basket. His ceiling is limited simply because of his role but he could be a useful situational piece in a few years, potentially even a long-term replacement for Steven Adams down the road.
Kendall Brown has a lot of Aaron Gordon in his game and his jumper is an enormous question mark. But he’s a strong and versatile defensive prospect who is a fantastic finisher and knows how to get open in the halfcourt. Playing off Nikola Jokic should get him a lot of open looks and highlight dunks.
Liddell was a primary scorer in college but his skill set should translate nicely as a high-level role player. He can shoot and defend multiple positions and has a solid face-up game that will let him exploit certain mismatches. There’s a lot of P.J. Washington to his game.
Jovic would be a project, but one with a lot of potential upside. He’s a 6-foot-10 ball-handler who is still learning how to use his size and handle as a scorer. His jumper is a work in progress but he is the kind of malleable piece who could play off Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns as this roster continues to progress.
Washington only makes sense if the Bulls trade Coby White this summer and even if they do, he may be a bit too similar for some fans’ tastes. But he’s a savvy ball-handler and creator who can help take some of the playmaking weight with the second unit while spacing the floor around the team’s stars.
Agbaji definitely raised his profile during March Madness but even before that he had established himself as a strong 3-and-D wing prospect. The Rockets have a lot of talent in place (and will add more with the No. 3 pick). Agbaji is the kind of role player who can help support the future stats on this roster as they try to pivot towards competitiveness.
The Hawks have both youth and veteran talent but it didn’t coalesce in the ways they were hoping this year. Wesley might not have a spot in the rotation next season but he’s an exciting wing creator and bucket-getter who could be useful down the road as some of those veterans are shuffled out.
Matching the Hornets with a defensive-minded center is one of the most obvious picks here. Williams is a good shot-blocker whose quickness, wingspan and body control should allow him to be a defensive force in drop coverage as well. His offensive role is likely limited to lob threat and vertical spacer but he should be excellent in both regards.
The Cavaliers had an unexpectedly successful season, looking like one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference at times, before injuries took their toll and they eventually lost both play-in games and missed the playoffs entirely. The structure of a future contender in Cleveland is an elite defense anchored by Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, with the creation and scoring of Darius Garland setting the table. However, their dearth of perimeter creators really limited their offensive upside.
A healthy Collin Sexton and full season of Caris LeVert will help, although it’s possible that the Cavs explore trading Sexton this summer. But landing a talented wing scorer like Branham in the draft should give them a lot more flexibility. There are questions about whether his 42.5 3-point percentage is truly reflective of his ceiling as a shooter but Branham can put points on the board. He’s excellent at creating for himself off the dribble, has a smooth pull-up game, can finish around the rim and had no problem getting to the line, where he shot 83.3 percent. Branham is also a good, if not elite, defensive prospect who works hard at that end of the floor.
For all this young Hornets roster has accomplished, it’s clear changes may be on the horizon. The team will be looking to re-sign Miles Bridges to a big new deal, restricted free agency is looming for P.J. Washington and both Kelly Oubre Jr. and Jalen McDaniels are in the final year of their contracts. The Hornets will have some tough decisions to make as their finances get squeezed, which could open up some holes in their frontcourt. They’ve already plugged one by getting Mark Williams with the No. 15 pick and Tari Eason is another great value who fits the system.
Eason is a good athlete and great defender who should be an absolute terror running in transition with LaMelo Ball. He is the kind of player who can put up big numbers without needing the ball in his hands, crashing the offensive glass, finishing off cuts, gobbling up loose balls and getting himself to the free-throw line. At the other end of the floor, he’s incredibly disruptive, should be able to defend both 3s and 4s and play a good deal of small ball 5. He lacks some offensive polish, probably isn’t going to create much off the dribble except for a few face-ups against slower players and there are questions about his outside shooting, even though he hit 37.1 percent of his 3s last season. But he’s a two-way talent who fits perfectly with the ways the Hornets like to play.
This draft class is an opportunity for the Thunder to really pull their rebuild into focus and move forward with a much more complete and cohesive core. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey are special pieces and their size and versatility give the team a flexible foundation. Sochan only adds to that as a super-skilled two-way forward capable of filling multiple roles at both ends of the floor.
At 6-foot-9 with excellent athleticism, motor and defensive awareness, Sochan can defend multiple positions and is even comfortable playing as a small-ball 5. On offense, he can do pretty much everything but shoot at this point, creating with the ball in his hands, setting up his teammates, crashing the offensive glass, cutting hard off the ball and taking defensive rebounds and pushing the ball in transition himself. His creation overlaps a bit with Giddey but he’s a much more valuable off-ball threat and could be really dangerous as a screener in the pick-and-roll.
In short, Sochan can do a bit of everything and is malleable enough to help unlock a huge variety of lineups built around the rest of this roster.
Knicks fans might be disappointed not to see a pick with a bit more upside potential but Davis is the kind of player Tom Thibodeau will love and a rookie he might actually play for big minutes. And once he’s on the court, Knicks fans should embrace him for his tough, aggressive style of play.
Davis is a throwback player, a perimeter scorer who does most of his damage in the mid-range, putting up numbers with a variety of stepbacks, floaters and tough finishes in traffic. He’s not an explosive athlete but uses his strength and force of will to get himself into the lane and get to the line. Davis also has a lot of value at the defensive end of the floor, making a difference with strength, aggressiveness and hustle more than overwhelming physical tools.
Davis won’t single-handedly change the fortune of the Knicks and he’s probably not a future All-Star. But he is a valuable rotation piece who doesn’t take anything much off the table at either end.
The Wizards were surprisingly frisky at points last season and will return a hopefully healthy and happy Bradley Beal, along with Kristaps Porzingis, Kyle Kuzma, Rui Hachimura and Deni Avdija. There are still plenty of needs on this roster but a knockdown 3-point shooter who can wreak havoc in transition with some creation upside could help them take a step forward.
Mathurin is a fantastic shooter who will be a difference-maker both as a spot-up threat and working off movement, running off screens and curls around other actions. He’s also an explosive leaper and finisher which makes him even more valuable as an off-ball threat. Mathurin’s athleticism also lays the groundwork for a solid defender even if he’s not always committed at that end right now. He is developing as an on-ball creator and that could be the skill that sets his ultimate ceiling but even if he’s just a hyper-athletic 3-and-D complement he should have a long NBA career.
Duren is the centerpiece of an impressive draft haul for the Spurs, with the selections of E.J. Liddell and Ousmane Dieng later in the first round. Dieng is a play for the future and Liddell is player who can contribute right away. Duren is a potentially transformational defensive piece that bridges the gap between the two.
Duren’s appeal starts with his incredible physical tools — 6-foot-11, 250 pounds, a 7-foot-5 wingspan, explosive leaping ability and impressive agility. He is already a terrific shot-blocker and rebounder and has flashed the potential to be switchable on the perimeter and swallow things up in the middle of the floor in drop coverage. On offense, he’s mostly a finisher at this point but he’s an enormous and constant lob threat and has shown that he could be a decent passer making him more of a threat as a screener and on the short roll.
Duren is one of the youngest players in the class and still needs a lot of development. But he’s already polished enough to play minutes right away and could be a defensive anchor for years to come.
The Pelicans’ dreams came true this spring, with a trade for CJ McCollum and a frisky run that saw them push into the playoffs and give the Phoenix Suns everything they could handle in the first round. McCollum is towards the end of his prime but Brandon Ingram is still coming into his own and the return of Zion Williamson is what ultimately shapes the timeline of this team.
Daniels is a high-upside pick but also one polished enough to play an immediate role as the Pelicans look to build on the momentum from last season. He averaged 11.3 points, 6.2 rebounds and 4.4 assists per game with the G League Ignite team this season, with versatility as his most significant contribution. He can function as a primary ball-handler even if his shooting and finishing aren’t quite there yet and there’s every reason to think he can be a high-level defender who handles multiple positions. He may not be a future star but he can do a lot of useful things at both ends of the floor and still has a lot of room to develop.
The Trail Blazers may ultimately trade this pick as they look to build something more immediate around Damian Lillard. But Keegan Murray is a player who can contribute right away, fills a positional need and is talented enough to consider holding onto as a building block for the inevitable post-Lillard future.
Murray has a breakout sophomore season, upping his statistical production in nearly every category and establishing himself as one of the best big men in the second tier of this draft class. He finished the season averaging 23.5 points, 8.7 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.3 steals and 1.9 blocks per game, shooting 55.4 percent from the field and 39.8 percent from beyond the arc. His face-up game may not translate to be quite as potent as it was at Iowa but he can spot-up, punish smaller defenders in the post and will still be able to create some advantages from the elbow against certain defenders. He’s also an active and engaged defender who can protect the rim and defend in space.
The Pacers are a tough team to figure out. On paper, they have some pieces to try and push for the playoffs next season — Myles Turner, Tyrese Haliburton, Buddy Hield, Malcolm Brogdon and last year’s rookie Chris Duarte. But there is a big split in ages between the 22-year-old Haliburton and the 30-year-old Hield and Brogdon and the Pacers could make some big trades this summer to push the roster younger. The Pacers (like every team) would have loved to jump into the top 3 and chase one of the three, star bigs, but if Ivey is still here at No. 6, he’s too good to pass up, even in a crowded backcourt.
Ivey is an explosive athlete whose signature attributes are his blend of speed, strength and aggressiveness. He’s not a great shooter or particularly polished creating for teammates but he’ll be an absolute terror in transition and should be able to put up plenty of points in the halfcourt by bulldozing his way into the lane. It would be nice to see a more reliable outside shot and more consistent effort on defense but both of those things could come and he’d be an extremely interesting long-term partner for Haliburton.
Sharpe is perhaps the biggest mystery box in the draft. He graduated from high school early to enroll at Kentucky for the spring semester, but only practiced with the team, not appearing in any games. He’s old enough to be eligible for the draft but he’d be something of a rarity in recent memory — a non-college prospect who also hasn’t played internationally or in the G League or Overtime Elite prep programs.
What we do know about Sharpe is that he’s an extremely athletic wing with a solid jumpshot, plus creation ability and a track record of being an extremely engaged and disruptive defender. Again, none of those have been proven against higher-level competition but he looks a bit like Jalen Green with more of a defensive motor.
The Pistons are in a tough spot, falling to No. 5 and missing out on the three big men at the top of the draft. They’d likely have preferred to find someone at the other end of the positional spectrum to be a long-term partner for Cade Cunningham, but Sharpe has tremendous upside and might be worth the risk over a player like Ivery with a more documented resume.
I had the Kings taking Griffin in my last mock draft, although the Tankathon simulation had them at No. 3 which made it a bit more of a stretch. Sliding to No. 4 makes it a big more defensible for the player who is probably the cleanest fit for a team that already has established pieces at center and point guard.
Griffin is a very impressive prospect. He’s 6-foot-6, 222 pounds and shooting 46.7 percent from beyond the arc on 6.9 attempts per 40 minutes. He projects to be an elite shooter at the next level, both on standstill spot-ups and off movement. Griffin is not particularly polished as a creator or defender at this point but he’s one of the youngest players in this class and has excellent physical tools to work with. The Kings seem committed to De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis as their core for the foreseeable future and Griffin’s shooting would be a huge addition, helping unlock opportunities for both players. If he can develop as a secondary creator he could end up as a better and more versatile version of what the Kings just gave up in Buddy Hield.
If the Rockets had landed at No. 1, they’d have a tough decision to make between Holmgren, Paolo Banchero and Jabari Smith. Here the decision is made for them and they still end up with the player I think makes the most sense for them.
Holmgren is an utterly unique prospect — a 7-foot-1, 195-pound, shot-blocking menace who also shoots and handles the ball like a high-level guard. His handle is extremely polished, although it’s a bit easier for him to leverage in the open court where he has the benefit of space to unfurl his massive frame. He shot better than 40 percent from beyond the arc and should be effective as a spot-up threat and shooting off the dribble. He’s also a fantastic passer with great vision.
There are real concerns about his lack of strength and how that may limit the translation of his shot-blocking and halfcourt creation abilities but he’s going to add strength and it’s difficult to project when we’ve never really seen someone his size who is as agile and skilled on offense. I really like the pairing of him with Alperen Sengun, letting Sengun handle the bigger, stronger defensive matchups with the passing of both players acting as a fulcrum to maximize the shooting and slashing of Holmgren, Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr.
Jabari Smith’s floor may be as high as any of the top prospects in this class and it comes down to two things — his jumper and his defense. At 6-foot-10 with smooth, fluid mobility, Smith can defend a variety of positions and fill a variety of defensive roles, everything from taking wings at the point of attack to operating as a weakside shot-blocker. He averaged more than two blocks and two steals per 100 possessions and was able to make an impact on the defensive glass as well. He’s also an exceptional jumpshooter who nailed 42.8 percent of his 10.8 3-point attempts per 100 possessions and is comfortable pulling up and shooting off movement. Even if this turns out to be the extent of his NBA contributions, he could be incredibly valuable as a complementary piece.
But Smith also has considerable upside as an offensive creator, and that’s what could make him a star. He relied on his jumper far too often as a freshman and there were legitimate concerns about his propensity for pulling up instead of getting all the way to the basket. He also has a way to go as a passer, reading what’s in front of him and manipulating the defense on behalf of himself and his teammates. But when you can simply shoot over the top of everyone, some of those complex actions aren’t necessary. If he continues to develop as a creator and a scorer, he could be one of the best two-way players in the league.
The Magic really can’t go wrong with Jabari Smith, Chet Holmgren or Banchero at the top of this draft. Each has a high floor, star potential and can offer specific things to this developing young roster. However, of the three, I’m most enamored by what Banchero can do for the Magic.
Banchero is big, strong, agile and skilled and has the ability to develop into a primary offensive fulcrum. At 6-foot-10, 250 pounds he can handle the ball and create from himself from beyond the 3-point line, easily getting all the way to the basket with a blend of power, craft and agility. He’s an excellent finisher a very good passer and a solid mid-range shooter who will also be able to work from the elbows or the low post, depending on the matchup. He’s unlikely to ever be a great defender and will almost certainly be a negative at the end to begin his career but he could be a 20-point scorer right off the bat and will make things infinitely easier for his teammates.
Banchero’s primacy will take some of the load off Cole Anthony, Jalen Suggs and Markelle Fultz and could really help Franz Wagner blossom. In addition, the Magic have the bones of a very good defense, with players like Jonathan Isaac, Suggs, Wendell Carter Jr., Chuma Okeke and Mo Bamba, which could help cover a bit for Banchero’s shortcomings at that end.
In short, the Magic can’t lose at No. 1. But I think Banchero would be the biggest win for them.