The Boston Red Sox may still turn their season around, but if they don’t, Xander Bogaerts is a realistic candidate to be traded at the deadline.
The Red Sox made Bogaerts an offer this offseason, but it wasn’t near the $31 million – $34 million AAV demands the star shortstop has in mind for his next deal. With a player opt out after this season, you can expect Bogaerts to test the free agent market.
Bogaerts is slashing .331/.389/.472 this season with an .860 OPS and 145 OPS+. Those numbers add up to a lot of money — far more than the $20 million the 29-year-old is scheduled to make this coming season.
While Boston was unwilling to match Bogaerts’ AAV, the number of years on his deal also figures to be a hot topic of conversation in the months to come. Bogaerts will be on other side of 30 years old before next season. Would the Red Sox feel comfortable committing that much money to a player well into his mid-to-late 30’s?
Add in that the Sox still have to pay the younger Rafael Devers after Bogaerts — and that they have a sound shortstop currently playing second base in Trevor Story — and re-signing Bogaerts may not be in their best interest.
With that in mind; let’s play the doomsday scenario. Let’s say the Red Sox do feel they have to trade Xander Bogaerts. Which teams would step up to the plate, and what could Boston feasibly get in return?
Red Sox rumors: Braves potential trade package for Xander Bogaerts
I detailed this trade on Thursday as a potential “best-case scenario” trade for Boston. They’d be receiving the likes of Swanson to directly replace Bogaerts, and some prospect capital in return. Here’s the argument:
"“Elder, meanwhile, is an MLB-ready starting arm, and ranks as the No. 5 prospect in the Braves system. He is not top-100 over in MLB, however, per MLB Pipeline. Franklin is only 11th in the Braves system, but he’s coming off a near 20-20 season in the minors and could provide a fourth outfielder for a team that could use the depth, honestly. Collins is a high-upside 19-year-old who figures to be a climber in Atlanta’s system. He’s the wild card of this entire trade, as he already has electric speed the likes of a Jackie Bradley Jr. type in the outfield. You read that correctly. It’s Dansby and two top-15 prospects, and another potential big leaguer down the road in Collins. Still, there’s no use for Swanson if the Braves trade for Bogaerts, so that’s a smart swap. Atlanta would avoid trading their top-4 prospects.”"
Any deal for Bogaerts would have to land the Red Sox some big league-ready talent, as well as add to their farm system. Swanson would be a cheaper replacement for Bogaerts, but is still coming off a breakout year. Elder and Franklin are both near-MLB ready, and could contribute in Boston in the not-so-distant future.
Red Sox rumors: White Sox potential trade package for Xander Bogaerts
This trade is courtesy of Vincent Parise, site editor over at Southside Showdown, and it’s essentially coined a ‘going for it all’ offer.
To make a trade like this, as with all of the teams involved, the White Sox would need some sort of confirmation that Bogaerts is willing to stay on the South Side of Chicago long-term. It would also mean that Bogaerts is comfortable switching positions, as Tim Anderson projects to be the starting shortstop for Chicago for a long time to come.
That’s a lot of ifs, but there is an argument to be made. As I wrote on Thursday, Chaim Bloom would at least have to listen:
"“If the Red Sox say no to THAT, then they have no intention on trading Bogaerts in the first place. Crotchet is on the 60-day IL and will undergo Tommy John surgery, so he’s out for the foreseeable future, but projects to be a top bullpen arm when healthy. Vaughn has been floated in trade rumors, and could start at first base or the outfield for Boston long-term. Colson Montgomery is Chicago’s No. 1 prospect, and could end up being the gem of this trade should he pan out. Burger, meanwhile, is a bit of an oddball without a real position at the moment. He sure wouldn’t play third base with the Red Sox, as trading away Bogaerts likely ensures they’re keeping Rafael Devers long-term. Yes, it’s a lot. But keep in mind this is the ‘final offer’, and could very well include different names when all is said and done.”"
That is a lot of prospect capital, and it basically signals Boston kicking the can down the road some in terms of competing with the upper echelon of the American League.
This trade package is loaded with prospects ready to compete at the major-league level. Gorman was just called up by St. Louis, while Yepez is already contributing as a big bat. I wrote about this proposition on Thursday, as well — and keep in mind that St. Louis has already been linked to Bogaerts, and could feasibly wait until this offseason to sign him.
Said deal is under the assumption that the Cards would rather not be patient:
"“Keep in mind how impactful of a player Bogaerts can be. Heck, he’s your shortstop for the next half-decade if things work out, and could potentially bring a World Series or two to the organization. That sort of upgrade costs significant prospect capital. Gorman is close to the MLB level and could slide in at second base. Trevor Story could move to shortstop as a result, as well, giving Boston a more stable infield. Yepez has performed decently in his brief time at the MLB level. Considering first base is a void right now for Boston, Yepez could be an immediate upgrade there until Triston Casas is ready. Jake Walsh would provide immediate bullpen relief for a Red Sox team that desperately needs it. That accounts for two prospects in the Cards top-6, and another in the top-25 per MLB Pipeline. Not a bad haul for Boston, and it doesn’t completely destroy St. Louis’ system. The Cardinals hanging on to top-ranked 19-year-old third baseman Jordan Walker is key here.”"
Shortstop is a clear hole for the Cardinals, so it’s not a surprise to see them on this list. After pulling off big trades for Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado in recent years, could they complete their infield by adding Bogaerts?
The argument against any trade by St. Louis is that they could merely sign Bogaerts this offseason. But as we’ve seen in years past, nothing is guaranteed in MLB Free Agency.
Keeping Gorman, Yepez and Walsh in tow would be ideal, but the longer St. Louis waits, the greater the chance Bogaerts ends up somewhere else not just this season, but long-term as well.