As we near September, the Mets and Braves are separated by just a few games in the NL East. Atlanta, however, is the scarier out come playoff time.
The Atlanta Braves have been on a roll for the past few months. Since June 1, the team is 55-21.
The experienced Braves are used to the dog days of baseball as they make a final push for the playoffs and division crown. Meanwhile, their arch-rivals, the New York Mets are doing whatever they can to hold off the surging Braves. While the Braves are 78-48, the Mets are 79-46. Only 1.5 games separate the two strong teams in a harsh fight to the end of the season.
So far, the Mets have the upper hand with a 9-7 record against the Braves. However, the Mets are 45-29 since June 1. It’s still a strong record, but not to the Braves’ standard. Both are going to the playoffs barring a huge collapse. Yet, who will be the scarier team in the playoffs? Both have aces, offensive play-makers, and relievers with capable arms in the bullpen.
1. The Braves’ track record in the Playoffs vs the Mets
Like it or not, the Atlanta Braves are used to playing in the playoffs. There’s a reason why they are the reigning World Series champions. They have made the playoffs the last four years while the Mets haven’t made the postseason since 2016. They have made it to the NLCS two years in a row.
The team understands how to handle the playoff pressure with nearly all of their team having a ton of experience in the playoffs. The Mets only have Francisco Lindor, Carlos Carrasco, and Max Scherzer as experienced playoff veterans among their regular players. That’s not ideal.
Winning and excelling in the regular season is one thing, but playoff games are a whole different animal. There’s a reason having the best record in the regular season no longer guarantees a chance at the pennant. I’ll give the edge to the team that has been playing together in the playoffs for many years in a row.
2. The Atlanta Braves have a superior bullpen compared to the New York Mets
The Braves have a far superior bullpen compared to the Mets. While the Mets have the better closer in Edwin Diaz — who has a 1.46 ERA with 28 saves and 97 strikeouts in 49.1 innings — the rest of the Mets bullpen doesn’t compare to the Braves. Let’s take a look at the stats. Since the Mets have had so many injuries in their bullpen (and to include their deadline acquisitions), take a look at the players who have thrown in 10+ games: Edwin Diaz, Adam Ottavino, Seth Lugo, Trevor Williams, Joely Rodriguez, Drew Smith (15-day IL), Trevor May, Tommy Hunter (15-day IL), and Mychal Givens. Those nine pitchers have combined for 334.1 innings out of the bullpen. They’ve allowed 124 earned runs, 395 strikeouts, 107 walks, 42 home runs, and have a 3.53 FIP and 3.34 ERA.
Good numbers, but not elite by any means.
In the playoffs, bullpens can often win you a series or a World Series as evidenced by recent champions like the Braves, Dodgers, Royals, and more. Over on the Braves side, they’ve had a healthy pen all year. The night shift, at least in part, is made up of Kenley Jansen, Collin McHugh, AJ Minter, Dylan Lee, Jackson Stephens, Tyler Matzek, Darren O’Day, Raisel Iglesias, and Kirby Yates. Those nine names have combined for 296 innings and given up 91 earned runs, 91 walks, 24 home runs, 348 strikeouts, and a 3.01 ERA/2.92 FIP. Oh, and they have contributed 5.6 WAR compared to the Mets’ 6.4 WAR.
Nearly every stat favors the Braves, and they have a secret weapon in Spencer Strider. Assuming the Braves protect his innings count and put him in the bullpen come playoffs, the Braves are adding an elite strikeout pitcher who has pinpoint control and throws 100 MPH.
Strider has 151 strikeouts over his 100.2 innings with a 2.06 FIP, 2.95 ERA, and has even finished 3 games. The Mets have no one that can match that out of their rotation.
3. Braves have a way better defense than the Mets
Surely, you’ve heard the saying by now — defense wins championships. While it often applies to other sports, it’s still true in MLB. Having a superior defense that can steal outs in the infield or outfield can win you ball games. Especially between two evenly matched teams.
According to DRS or defensive runs saved above average, the Mets are lackluster. Going off their regular lineup of fielders/players, the Mets have combined for negative 12 runs saved. They have made 36 errors. That’s not ideal for their pitchers or when it comes time to make a game-saving play. Their defensive WAR from these same players is equal to -0.2 WAR.
Meanwhile, if we use these same metrics to look at the Braves’ regular defenders, you’ll see a very different story. The Braves regular defenders have been worth a vastly above-average 9 defensive runs saved. This is how you win baseball games by winning in the margins. Making the routine plays easy while making enough hard plays. Their combined defensive WAR is worth 1.6. That’s a lot more than -0.2. In fact, when combined with the fact the two teams are 1.5 games between each other in the standings, that 1.6 games of WAR could come into play in a big way.