The MLB playoff picture is coming into focus with magic numbers dwindling down by the day.
There are four weeks left in the MLB season and with that, the haves and the have-nots in the playoff picture have been fairly well established. But the playoff seeding is far from decided in either league.
In the American League as of this publication on Thursday morning on September 8, the division leaders are the New York Yankees in the AL East, the Cleveland Guardians in the AL Central, and the Houston Astros in the AL West. Here are the respective division leads:
- AL West: Astros lead the Mariners by 12 games
- AL Central: Guardians lead the White Sox by 1.5 games
- AL East: Yankees lead the Rays by 3.5 games
In the Wild Card picture, the Rays and Mariners are in a virtual tie for the first AL Wild Card spot and the Blue Jays have the third Wild Card spot. Here are the AL Wild Card standings:
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Seattle Mariners
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Baltimore Orioles (-4 games)
- Chicago White Sox (-6.5 games)
In the National League entering Wednesday, the St. Louis Cardinals and Los Angeles Dodgers have sealed their division fates. In the NL East, the Braves have a lead on the Mets. Here are their respective division leads:
- NL West: Dodgers lead Padres by 18 games
- NL Central: Cardinals lead Brewers by 8 games
- NL East: Braves lead Mets by .5 games
In the Wild Card picture, the Mets have an 10+ game lead on the Phillies and Padres, who are in a virtual tie for the second and third Wild Card spots. The Brewers are the only other team within reach. Here are the NL Wild Card standings:
- New York Mets
- Philadelphia Phillies
- San Diego Padres
- Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)
Of the teams in playoff contention, here they are by the strength of their remaining schedule from weakest to strongest (as of Sept. 8)
- Mets (3 vs. ATL, 3 vs. MIL)
- Mariners (3 vs. ATL, 2 vs. SD, 1 vs. CWS)
- Cardinals (3 vs. LAD, 3 vs. SD, 4 vs. MIL)
- White Sox (1 vs. SEA, 3 vs. SD, 4 vs. CLE, 6 vs. MIN)
- Guardians (3 vs. TB, 8 vs. MIN, 6 vs. CWS)
- Twins (3 vs. NYY, 8 vs. CLE, 6 vs. CWS)
- Astros (6 vs. TB, 3 vs. PHI, 4 vs. BAL)
- Braves (3 vs. NYM, 3 vs. SEA, 7 vs. PHI)
- Phillies (3 vs. HOU, 7 vs. ATL, 2 vs. TOR)
- Brewers (3 vs. NYM, 3 vs. NYY, 4 vs. STL)
- Dodgers (3 vs. STL, 6 vs. SD)
- Yankees (15th-hardest/easiest schedule in the sport) (3 each vs. TB, TOR, BAL, MIL, MIN)
- Orioles (4 vs. HOU, 3 vs. NYY, 7 vs. TOR)
- Blue Jays (3 vs. NYY, 9 vs. TB, 2 vs. PHI, 7 vs. BAL)
- Padres (6 vs. LAD, 3 vs. STL, 2 vs. SEA, 3 vs. CWS)
- Rays (6 vs. HOU, 3 vs. NYY, 9 vs. TOR, 3 vs. CLE)
What is a MLB magic number?
Each MLB team has a “magic number” for the playoffs. It is the number of games needed until a team clinches a playoff spot or their division. For each win the team has, one number is knocked off. For each loss that their opponent in the Wild Card and/or division has, one number is also knocked off.
For example, if the Yankees and Rays face each other and the Yankees (who are in first place while the Rays are in second place) win over the Rays, two numbers are knocked off the magic number.
In American League, here are the magic numbers for each team involved in the playoffs.
New York Yankees magic number
The New York Yankees currently have a magic number of 22 to win the East and a magic number of 15 to get into the playoffs. Any combination of Yankees wins and/or Rays losses that amount to 22 means that the Yankees will win the AL East. According to FanGraphs, they have a 96.1 percent chance of winning the AL East and a 3.9 percent chance of getting a Wild Card spot (adding up to a 100 percent chance of making the postseason).
Rays magic number
The Rays have a magic number of 20 to make the playoffs. They have a 91.2 percent chance at making the playoffs, including a 2.7 percent chance at winning the AL East and an 88.5 percent chance at getting a Wild Card spot.
Blue Jays magic number
The Blue Jays have a magic number of 21. They have a 75 percent chance of playing in the postseason (73.9 percent chance of a Wild Card and a 1.1 percent chance at winning the East).
Orioles magic number
The Orioles have a better record than the Guardians, who are in first place in the Central, but the Orioles are in fourth place in the East. As a result, they have a zero percent chance of winning the AL East. However, they have a 30.1 percent chance of making the playoffs via the Wild Card. They do not have a magic number, since they are out of the playoff picture as of this publication.
Guardians magic number
Despite being in first place in the AL Central, the Guardians only have a 58.4 percent chance at making the playoffs (56.7 percent in the Central, 1.7 via Wild Card). Their magic number to win the AL Central is 24.
Twins magic number
The Twins have coughed up their division lead as they are 2.5 games back of Cleveland.
White Sox magic number
The White Sox are only 1.5 games back of the Guardians in the AL Central but they are in third place and have an uphill battle for the rest of the season.
Astros magic number
The Astros have a magic number of 9 to make the playoffs and a magic number of 13 to win the AL West. They have a 99.7 percent chance at winning the West and a 0.3 percent chance of getting a Wild Card spot.
Mariners magic number
The Mariners have a magic number of 21. This number is lower than the Rays, despite being in a virtual tie. This is because the Mariners have played two more games, as they have one more win and one more loss than the Rays. Their chance at making the playoffs is 98.4 percent (98.2 percent coming via the Wild Card). If they make the playoffs, it would be their first playoff appearance since 2001.
Mets magic number
The Mets have a magic number of 10 to make the playoffs.
The Mets have the mathematical favor of winning the NL East due to their strength of schedule.
The loser in the division will be the first Wild Card team, so it’s not a bad consolation prize.
Braves magic number
The Braves have a magic number of 10 to clinch the playoffs. Their magic number to clinch the NL East is 24.
Phillies magic number
The Phillies have a magic number of 21 to make the postseason. They have a 91 percent chance at making the playoffs but with the Braves and Mets huge lead in the division, they have a 0.0 percent chance at making the playoffs by winning the NL East.
Cardinals magic number
Like the Braves and Mets, the Cardinals have a near-100 percent chance of making the playoffs. Since the Brewers have fallen off a cliff and are still falling, they have a 99.6 percent chance at making it via winning the NL Central. Their magic number is 16 to win the Central.
Brewers magic number
The Brewers don’t have a magic number since they have fallen out of the Central and Wild Card picture. With their chances at winning the Central have dried up, their chance at making the postseason is only 36.9 percent.
Dodgers magic number
The Dodgers have the best record in the entire sport and it’s not particularly close. Their magic number to make the postseason is only 3 and it is 7 to win the NL West.
Padres magic number
The Padres are 18.5 games back of the Dodgers for the NL West but they have a 70.5 percent chance of making the postseason via the Wild Card. They have a magic number of 20 to make the postseason.
Final Thoughts
Other than the teams that we have covered, there are three teams that have a mathematical chance of making the postseason. However, those three teams (the Red Sox, Giants, and Diamondbacks) have a combined chance of making the postseason of 2.0 percent.
So with four weeks remaining, there are 16 teams fighting for 12 spots in the postseason and exactly four weeks from today, we will know which teams will be in and what seed they will be playing as or if they get a bye for the new three-game Wild Card series.