With Opening Night hours away, here are 15 NBA season predictions for the Eastern Conference, one for each and every team.
In preparation for tonight’s tip, these are 15 predictions on the upcoming season for the 15 teams in the Eastern Conference. The only requirement is that each prediction is measurable so we can all look back and laugh in April. Starting with the Atlantic Division…
Boston Celtics finish in the top five league-wide in offense and defense
This organization can’t do anything the simple way it seems. To reach the NBA Finals a year ago, they had to start the season 17-19. And then, a few weeks before the most anticipated Celtic season in at least a decade, news broke that they had lost their head coach to a full-season suspension.
And maybe this season will be consistent with that theme? On paper, the Celtics should be at least favorites or co-favorites to return to the biggest stage and represent the Eastern Conference — they’ve maintained their championship core and added veteran talent in the form of Danilo Gallinari (tore his ACL shortly thereafter) and Malcolm Brogdon.
Last year, the Celtics were the league’s best defense, allowing a stingy 106 points per 100 possessions. To compliment, they climbed to the league’s 10th-best offense after going nuclear from New Year’s to Easter, a stretch of 46 games in which their offensive rating catapulted to 118.
It would appear that there is no manner to accurately predict where this team will end up, but I’m going to throw all of the off-the-floor extracurriculars aside and look at the fundamentals. The Celtics were both a top-five offense and defense for the majority of last season, they have a 24-year-old certified two-way star at one of the most important positions in basketball, and they also added additional depth to a roster that reached the Finals in June.
Even with Ime Udoka’s suspension and Jaylen Brown rumored to have been included in yet another trade rumor, I’m betting this team doubles down on what it learned during the final stretch of last season.
Brooklyn Nets win less than 50 games in the regular season
It’s nice getting this one out of the way early because trying to project what will happen at the Barclay’s Center over the next eight months has to be among the gutsiest endeavors imaginable for those of us consumed by the point at which math meets the National Basketball Association. There are so many hypothetical-but-real events that have occurred in the past sixth months that the “too long; didn’t read” cliff notes can be summarized as there very much was (and to some degree, still is) a non-zero possibility that not one of the team’s three All-Stars would be in a Nets uniform this year.
And yet, we’ve made it to mid-October and now we get to see what a Kevin Durant-Kyrie Irving-Ben Simmons basketball team looks like in practice. To set the stage: I’m as bullish on this team as almost anyone can be in terms of basketball fit and the potential for their chemistry to sing from the opening tip. Of all the ways this rendition may be undone, I believe the most likely is the same that has hurt the Nets’ championship chances during the entire Durant-Irving era: injuries. Of the possible 246 games that this trio could have played last season, they only managed 84 (33 percent).
That’s a spooky statistic.
But one perspective that’s lost in the discourse of this Brooklyn basketball team is just how solid the core around their All-Star trio is. Joe Harris is returning from injury; Seth Curry, Patty Mills, Royce O’Neale, and T.J. Warren each provide a specialty that fits well with the star talent on the roster; and Nic Claxton has had another year to develop as essentially the lone center on this team. In theory, these Nets are built to compete with the league’s best teams. And that’s what I think they’ll do, eventually. Just not during the regular season.
New York Knicks lose at least 50 games in the regular season
Two seasons ago, the Tom Thibodeau Knicks surprised the basketball world by winning 41 games and clinching home-court advantage in their first-round series. While the Knicks lost that series 4-1 it gave the basketball world pause. Was this Knicks team on the right trajectory with a misfit group of players and a defensively-consumed head coach?
The answer came quickly and conclusively a year ago when the Knicks (with largely the same roster) began the season 17-19. Partly, this is due to the resurgence of the East over the last couple of seasons — there are very few “gimme” games. But it mostly has to do with the reality that this roster isn’t NBA-caliber.
Despite the addition of Jalen Brunson and the extension of R.J. Barrett (who is one of the most league’s intriguing young players), I expect this Knicks team to continue to descend into mediocrity. In 2020-21 they won 41 games, and in 2021-22 they won 37 games. I expect they go lower this year.
Philadelphia 76ers are a top-three defense league-wide
Well, here we go Sixer fans. This is the year that most have been waiting for since The Process began over a decade ago. There were some years for optimism, the Jimmy Butler campaign being chief among them, but the Sixers haven’t had this talented and deep of a team since the 1980s.
There’s a lot to like about the Sixers: the roster is switchable (a Daryl Morey staple), they have strengths on both sides of the ball, they’re led by an MVP candidate who’s dominant on both ends of the floor at the league’s most impactful two-way position, and they have a mix of veteran and young talent that should prove valuable if and when they reach the postseason.
Having a proven general manager helps a lot when attempting to make the leap from a playoff lock to a championship contender. Over the offseason, the Sixers added Montreal Harrell as the now-best backup center in the league, and PJ Tucker and Danuel House Jr. as proven two-way wings to round out the Joel Embiid-James Harden-Tyrese Maxey core. As a result, Philadelphia can play different styles depending on their opponent — they can match up against big teams that have an inside presence or play “small ball” stretches against opponents with strong guard play.
Last season, the Sixers were the 11th-best defense with a 111 defensive rating. That number dropped slightly in the second half of the season following the Harden-Simmons swap and lull prior to postseason play, but it commands more attention than just an end-of-season shoulder shrug. Prior to making the moves to add Harrell, Tucker, and House, the 76ers were a little short on defensive talent. Trading Simmons — a Defensive Player of the Year candidate for the remainder of the 2020s — is one factor, but Embiid’s continued workload and injury problems are another. Matisse Thybulle is a certified All-Defense player, but his offense hasn’t gotten to the professional level requisite to play 30-plus minutes a night. These additions make Philadelphia into a defensive juggernaut and are a smart play given Embiid’s unique defensive presence inside.
If the 76ers want to be the East’s best team when things are all said and done, they’ll need to be elite on the defensive end. And that’s what I think they’ll do.
Toronto Raptors are a top-five defense, just behind divisional opponents in Boston and Philadelphia
There’s a very legitimate possibility that four teams from this division escape the play-in tournament as the top six seeds in the conference. That shows how deep the Atlantic is and how seriously opponents should take this Toronto team.
Throwing out the 2020-21 Tampa Bay season (because there still hasn’t been a plausible explanation for that performance), the Raptors have been one of the best franchises in basketball since Nick Nurse took over as coach. Last season, the absences of Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam were enough to render the team mediocre.
Now, with both healthy, and a year of confidence under Rookie of the Year Scottie Barnes’ belt, Toronto is looking to return to the perch where they had sat in 2019 as NBA Champions. They may not be in the top tier of the conference, but no team wants to face the Raptors at full strength.
This team’s identity has always been defense first. They were the 10th-best group on that side of the floor last season and allowed only 112 points per 100 possessions after the All-Star break. Given the difficulties with the move to Tampa two seasons ago and the disruption due to injury last year, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Raptors improve upon their already stellar defense. And to be among the best, they’ll need to match their division rivals in Boston and Philadelphia.
(Zooming out, the 2022-23 Atlantic division may be the best collection of defensive talent in the modern era.)
Cleveland Cavaliers take at least 40 percent of their shot attempts at the rim and finish with a top-15 offense league-wide
The Cavaliers made a big splash and are relevant for the first time this century without LeBron James — they deserve congratulatory respect from the NBA fan community. Now, it’s going to be even more fun to see exactly what this collection of eclectic players can become together.
Comparing this team to last year’s is impossible, but we can at least revisit how we got here. Eleven games into last season, the Cavaliers lost their starting point guard and offensive fulcrum, Collin Sexton, to a knee injury and had to revamp their entire offense midseason. Enter Darius Garland, who assumed starting point guard responsibilities and performed so well that he was elected an All-Star. Rookie Evan Mobley blossomed in his first year and finished second in Rookie of the Year voting. Jarrett Allen is also very good at basketball, especially on defense.
In July, the Cavaliers decided to go all on it on the good vibes emerging from last season and traded away Sexton to secure another All-Star, Utah’s Donovan Mitchell. Now, the Cavaliers have two playmakers who can create their own shot and a legitimate case in the best starting defensive frontcourt discussion.
So how do we make sense of all this? If this Cavs team is going to make another leap, it’s going to have to come at the offensive end. Last season they were the league’s 19th-best offense, with a measly efficiency of 112. To get there, I think they double down on their offensive strategy from last year — take open outside shots when available, but emphasize attacking the basket in the pick-and-roll. Cleveland shot 37.5 percent of their attempts at the rim last season, according to Cleaning the Glass. This year I think they are over the 40 percent threshold, which only Indiana and New Orleans accomplished last season.
Chicago Bulls win 40-43 games and are between the 12th and 15th-best offense and 18th and 22nd-best defense in the league.
This team is a head-scratcher for me. Were they actually that good last year? Did DeMar DeRozan just have a career year while everyone played well enough? Is Zach Lavine’s injury a major concern long-term? How is a team so obviously constructed with an “offense first” mentality so mediocre on that side of the ball?
The Chicago Bulls, ladies and gentlemen.
Let’s start with this: I think the Bulls’ projection will be among the hardest to make of any this season (nobody is touching Brooklyn here). I think most would expect them to do largely the same because the team hasn’t changed — Lonzo Ball is still troubled with injuries and the roster was largely left alone aside from the Andre Drummond-Tristan Thompson swap (with all due respect to Goran Dragic and rookie Dalen Terry).
This might be their biggest concern — that they stood pat when a lot of teams ostensibly got better (Boston added veterans, Brooklyn returned to health, Philadelphia filled in some gaps, and Cleveland secured Donovan Mitchell). The Bulls aren’t the Miami Heat, who can take the same tepidly-exciting roster from last season and somehow grind 50-plus wins out (more to come).
Vegas has Chicago projected to win about as many games as they lose, which sounds right to me. In fact, Chicago may be definable as the median NBA team this season. The Bulls should be able to score, though not with the likes of Milwaukee, Boston, Brooklyn, Philadelphia, Cleveland, or even Atlanta. They have some defensive talent — but they’ll struggle against dynamic scoring threats on the wing or in the backcourt (that is, almost every NBA team).
And really, maybe it’s more realistic, and certainly much less sexy, to project them to be about the same as they were last year. The Chicago Bulls are the 2023 NBA’s version of the Spiderman meme.
Detroit Pistons are a top-20 offense league-wide
The Pistons are the most highly-anticipated (likely) lottery-bound team in recent NBA history. And for good reason; they have Cade Cunningham, who projects to be a bonafide star at point guard coming into his second year and a high-scoring combo guard in rookie Jaden Ivey. Isaiah Stewart, Saddiq Bey, Jalen Duren, and Boj Bogdonavic fill out the majority of the rotational minutes for this team. (Killian Hayes, Nerlens Noel, and a healthy Marvin Bagley III should also see the time.)
What isn’t clear is just how quickly this newly-assembled group will mesh together, and that’s why I think we’re a season away from being able to clearly project this Detroit team as a play-in contender.
In the meantime, we get to see just how successful these Pistons can be on offense — which is the bullish bet for the team that’s a year away from being a year away. After finishing an abysmal 28th overall last season, I think Detroit make a significant leap on that side of the ball.
Indiana Pacers become a bottom-10 offense and remain a bottom-10 defense in the league
I don’t expect that this team is attempting to win many games this season, which is a smart move.
Last season, the Pacers did well to manage the same offensive output as their divisional rival Chicago Bulls (which is startling if you’re a Bulls fan) with a roster comprised of half a season of Tyrese Haliburton and Buddy Hield, half a season of Domantis Sabonis, half a season of Myles Turner, and one complete Malcolm Brogdon campaign.
If the Pacers do overachieve, it’ll come from improved defense to compensate for the inevitable decline in their offensive efficiency from a season ago. But I think, as a result of the incentives of the current draft lottery, they’ll be below average on both sides of the ball.
Milwaukee Bucks finish third in the East but win the 2023 NBA championship
Milwaukee is so awesome that I don’t think they even need to prove it in the regular season. This rendition of the Bucks is largely unchanged from those during the Giannis-Budenholzer era — they replaced Bryn Forbes with Joe Ingles and kept their remaining lineup intact.
Milwaukee is the NBA’s boogeyman; they could be truly terrifying from opening night to mid-June, and I think there’s a strong chance that they accomplish their end goal. But I also get the impression they’re starting the 82-game season with the abject boredom of a high school senior. These Bucks have already gotten into the college of their choice.
If they were trying to blow the doors off every team night after night, I might pick them to be the top team on both ends of the floor this season, a true two-way juggernaut. But because I think their eyes are only on one prize, I’ll settle for that with my prediction as well.
Atlanta Hawks improve their defense by at least 10 spots and are 18th or better league-wide
This Hawks team has been such a rollercoaster ride over the last two seasons, and this year they look to have found some stability. They made both big and small offseason acquisitions — the big in the form of guard Dejounte Murray — that fit the mold of the existing roster quite nicely, even if it doesn’t elevate their ceiling to a championship level, in my opinion.
Murray is the right guard to pair with Trae Young — given that Young is the worst defensive player by the numbers in the NBA. Murray’s off-ball shooting has been mentioned often throughout the summer as we all try to project where this team could go, and I would bet on Murray figuring out whatever role this pair requires him to assume in order for the group to be successful.
Losing Danillo Gallinari and Kevin Huerter hampers the offense slightly, but the additions of Mo Harkless and Justin Holiday should largely offset that drop if you believe, like I do, that De’Andre Hunter makes a leap in his fourth season.
The Hawks are somewhat deep, Frank Kaminsky’s addition and fan favorite Onyeka Okongwu offer Nate McMillan the versatility to optimize lineups for one side of the ball. Clint Capela is still really good and should benefit as much as Young from Murray’s addition.
The hope is that Bogdan Bogdanovic can lead secondary units as a playmaker and lead scorer on the dim January nights where it’s needed. Atlanta’s bench is full of young, dynamic players, some of which have a proven ability to score at a high level (to be determined if it will translate to the NBA).
The Hawks were the league’s second-best offense and its 28th-best defense in 2021-22. If they can keep their scoring in the top 10 and bring their defense to the league median, they should escape the play-in tournament. If not, this season may be another disappointment.
Charlotte Hornets are the 10th-best offense or worse and the 20th-best defense or worse and miss the play-in tournament
The Hornets were last year’s Pistons —young and brimming with a wave of optimism on the shoulders of a point guard who’s fun to watch — and well, things change quickly in the NBA. Unfortunately for one of the league’s least-successful franchises, it looks like 2022-23 will be yet another reset.
LaMelo Ball is still the most-promising prospect on the roster, an unfortunate reality of a team that’s been just good enough to not make a playoff appearance and secure a highly-coveted draft pick — the NBA’s version of purgatory. He might also be the best player on the team, though a healthy Gordon Hayward would have a bone to pick.
If PJ Washington’s outside efficiency continues on the trend of the last two seasons, the Hornets should have enough offensive talent in their starting lineup to keep games close. Terry Rozier has shown a propensity to be an off-ball option with Ball as the lead creator.
Charlotte was the league’s sixth-best offense last season and this season we’ll find out how much Miles Bridges contributed to the Hornets’ success on that side of the floor. Charlotte was also the 20th-ranked defense, which might have been an overachievement given the defensive talent on the roster. My bet (sorry Hornets fans) is that they regress in both and miss the play-in tournament this year.
Miami Heat are the fourth-best team in the conference or better and are a top-10 team on both sides of the ball.
Last season was all but a success for the Heat. They overachieved relative to almost everyone’s expectations of them, were the conference’s best team by record, reached the conference finals, and stretched the series to seven games against a talented Boston team.
The roster is essentially unchanged from last season — they flipped KZ Okpala for another young prospect, Nikola Jovic. Tyler Herro signed an extension to cement the team’s core for the foreseeable future.
I can’t predict the Heat to regress this season. This team is very good, every member of the roster and staff has proven their ability in the past, and they continue to outpace everyone’s expectations of them.
As the 11th-best offense and the ninth-best defense last year, I think this team remains about the same.
Orlando Magic are in the top 20 offensively and the bottom 10 defensively in the league
The short story on this Magic team: they should be better than they were offensively a year ago. They added first-overall pick Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner showed his high-ceiling potential at Eurobasket over the summer, and Jonathan Isaac is supposedly going to play basketball in 2023.
The Magic were the worst offense in the league last season. They may have some injury concerns at point guard (once again), with Markelle Fultz currently sidelined because of a (reportedly) minor toe injury and Jalen Suggs having another injury in preseason (he’s available for opening night). Cole Anthony is a solid backup or third-string point guard, and Jamahl Mosley will have a lot of options to toggle and pair the three in different lineup combinations.
The Magic didn’t get significantly better on paper aside from adding Banchero and Isaac returning to the lineup. But with another year of experience for this young team, I think their offense will start to blossom. They certainly won’t be near the bottom of the league this season.
Defensively, Mosley and company overachieved with the 17th-best defense, allowing a manageable 113 points per 100 possessions. I also expect that they regress somewhat on this side of the ball.
As far as playoff hopes, I think this team is still a year-plus away given Banchero will still be learning on the fly and the East features a plethora of talented teams. But this year could be the foundation for a team with high expectations later this decade.
Washington Wizards finish as a top-15 offense league-wide
The last of our East teams is one of the most uninspiring, both in terms of predicting how this season will play out and where they’re headed in the future.
Bradley Beal is the lone household name, but the Wizards’ rosters featured a number of talented players with lesser profiles. Among them, Kyle Kuzma’s progression has been the most remarkable.
Per Cleaning the Glass, last season Kuzma increased his usage from 19 to 24 percent and his assist percentage rose from 10 to 16.5 percent. While his 3-point efficiency dipped from 37 to 35 percent, he increased his efficiency from both the rim and midrange on a larger volume of attempts. Kuzma proved that he has the potential to become an even more versatile player in the future, one who can create for others and himself, score, and defend.
Any bullish bet on the Wizards this season must also include a bullish bet on Kuzma’s progression. They’ve already maximized the impact that Beal can have (his third-team All-NBA ceiling is nothing to scoff at) and don’t have another true on-ball creator beyond the aforementioned duo and Will Barton.
Kristaps Porzingis and Rui Hachimura both have the potential to excel in their respective first full season in a Wizards uniform (Porzingis arrived at the trade deadline last February and Hachimura missed the start of last season for unknown reasons, dealt with injuries throughout the 2020-21 season, and began his NBA career in the COVID-shortened 2019-20 season).
The question for a team with so much individual offensive talent: can they become an above-average offensive team? Last season they were the 22nd-ranked offense, partially due to Beal being sidelined after the All-Star break with a wrist injury. Assuming health, this team should be better on that side of the ball because it’s their only hope of reaching the play-in tournament.