The 2018 NBA Draft brought about a wave of new-age big men and elite offensive creators.
Every now and then, we get a batch of rookies with the potential to define a generation. The 2018 NBA Draft provided us with just that. A handful of the league’s most dominant and exciting offensive engines. An MVP candidate, maybe two. And several “modern” bigs who showcase how much the league has changed.
No draft class in recent memory has better defined the current state of NBA basketball. What kind of players are still valuable? What kind of players are products of a bygone era? Just look at the first two picks: Deandre Ayton is thriving because of his ability to defend in space and embrace the small things; meanwhile, Marvin Bagley’s scoring inefficiency and lackluster defense made him the biggest bust of 2018.
Who would go No. 1 overall if the 2018 NBA Draft were held today?
Per usual, there were several notable mistakes in the draft in 2018. There was also perhaps the most important draft-day trade in who knows how long: Dallas sending the No. 5 pick and change to Atlanta for the No. 3 pick, forever tethering Luka Doncic and Trae Young together in the NBA annals.
With the benefit of hindsight, let’s correct those mistakes and rewrite history.
Moritz Wagner can stretch out defenses with deep 3-point range. He can also score with finesse and creativity around the rim. Unfortunately, he’s easily played off the floor defensively.
Kendrick Nunn burst onto the NBA scene with two explosive scoring seasons in Miami. He has since missed a year to injuries and is now struggling to regain his footing with the wayward Lakers.
Landry Shamet checks a lot of role player boxes on the wing. His movement shooting really pops and he’s capable of handling the ball a little bit when called upon.
Jevon Carter’s dogged on-ball defense and reliable 3-point shot will keep him on NBA rosters. He’s currently playing the biggest role of his career in Milwaukee and answering the call.
Marvin Bagley III was destined to disappoint as soon as Sacramento picked him over Luka Doncic. He’s an energetic rebounder with the ability to score in bunches around the rim, but his fallible defense and relative inefficiency are hard to ignore.
Originally undrafted, Jae’Sean Tate has been stuffing the stat sheet in Houston for three years now. He’s an effective Swiss Army Knife who might look even better once Houston’s core pieces start to play winning basketball.
Hustle is the defining feature of Kenrich Williams’ game. The guy just plays his tail off, guarding multiple positions on defense, crashing the glass with reckless abandon, and hitting enough 3s to remain relevant on offense.
Grayson Allen has developed quite the reputation over the years, but it has nothing to do with his actual talent for basketball. The NBA is a shooter’s league and Allen can shoot the rock prodigiously.
Injuries have perhaps irrevocably tarnished Donte DiVincenzo’s NBA career. His first two seasons in Milwaukee might have established him as a lottery pick in this re-draft were it not for the many tribulations that have since followed. He showed flashes of his old self in Sacramento last season, though.
Duncan Robinson’s role has diminished in Miami, but he’s still one of the best movement shooters in the league. His unique dynamism behind the 3-point line keeps Robinson very relevant.
Devonte’ Graham has spent the majority of his NBA career as a starting point guard — and a pretty good one too. The Pelicans’ depth has relegated him to reserve duties now, but Graham is a nifty complementary guard because of his ability to bomb 3s and set up teammates.
Bruce Brown Jr. is one of the NBA’s most underrated role players. He doesn’t score much, but Brown’s athleticism, passing ability, and competitive defense shine through in practically any context.
Gary Trent Jr. has done a lot to elevate his game since arriving in Toronto. He’s more than a simple 3-and-D wing — Trent’s ability to improvise and hit tough shots is essential to the Raptors’ oft-stagnant halfcourt offense.
With his 7-foot-10 wingspan and bankable 3-point shot, Mo Bamba should stick in the league for a long time. Very few players can anchor the defense and stretch the floor like Bamba. Unfortunately, Orlando employs a gazillion frontcourt players right now.
Jarred Vanderbilt does all the dirty work. At 6-foot-9, he crashes the boards with rabid enthusiasm. He can be deployed as a wing or as a small-ball five. Either way, he’s going to vacuum up errant passes and create havoc on the defensive end. The cherry on top: Vanderbilt is even starting to hit some 3s.
Kevin Huerter is finding the next gear in Sacramento right now. He’s the perfect modern wing: lots of 3s, some real playmaking juice, and active defense. He flies around the court on both ends and makes good things happen.
We are approaching an inflection point in Mitchell Robinson’s career. For reasons both in and out of his control, the 24-year-old has never been able to carry a proper starter’s workload. The talent is there. The flashes are abundant, with no shortage of highlight reel dunks and mind-bending defensive efforts peppering his résumé. But, on the flip side, he’s often hurt, or in foul trouble, or simply playing worse than the less notable centers on the roster (this season, he has been frequently outplayed by Isaiah Hartenstein).
Robinson is one of the most explosive and efficient rim runners in basketball. His pterodactyl wingspan and Space Jam hops make him a prime lob target for the likes of Jalen Brunson and R.J. Barrett. In fact, now that New York has a real point guard, Robinson should be better positioned than ever to succeed. Alas, his numbers are somehow slipping. It’s far too early (in the season and in his career) for any real panic, but it’s also 2022. How much value is there in a center who doesn’t shoot or pass; a center who’s really good at rim-running and rim protection, but who isn’t disciplined enough to stay on the floor in critical moments. Robinson has All-Defensive team upside, but he’s simply not there yet.
All that said, the NBA Draft is ultimately about upside. The list of superior NBA athletes is exceedingly slim. Robinson defies physics on both sides of the ball. He occupies immense swathes of space in the paint, deterring drivers and forcing offenses to recalibrate every halfcourt possession. On the offensive end, he shot 76.1 percent from the field last season. Practically every shot is at the rim, but once you feed Robinson the ball in a favorable position, the result is all but guaranteed.
The best NBA defenses are often anchored by elite rim protectors. Robinson has the potential to perennially lead the league in blocked shots. If he can reach the point where he’s playing 30-35 minutes a night, instead of 20-25, he might start to earn some hardware.
He’s not the sexiest name in the re-draft lottery, but De’Anthony Melton has more than earned this position. The NBA discourse is too often boiled down to individual heroics and broad generalizations about star players. But the simple fact is that basketball is a team sport, and in team sports you need star role players too. Melton won’t carry much of the scoring burden, but he will significantly elevate his team’s defense while providing more than enough support offensively.
Injuries have been influential in Melton’s career up to this point, but when he’s healthy very few guards can match the 24-year-old’s tornado-like presence on the defensive end. He’s one of the NBA’s best pickpockets, using his 6-foot-8 wingspan to intercept passes or to smother the point of attack.
Melton has also made himself into quite the complementary player on offense. Don’t ask him to do too much, and Melton will thrive in virtually any setting. He’s an above-average shooter who attempts a healthy volume of 3-pointers. He can attack closeouts and use his athleticism to rocket his way to the rim for a finish. He’s also willing and able to facilitate, though it’s wise to think of Melton as connective tissue, not the central nervous system. He can’t drive the car, but he can make sure it’s running smoothly.
Not many NBA sixth man will be more important to their team’s success this season than Melton in Philadelphia. He’s the ultimate 3-and-D role player in many respects. He doesn’t demand touches or hog possessions, but his role is scalable depending on need and he’s sure to make his presence felt on the defensive end.
You want buckets? The Young Bull provides. There aren’t many players who offer more pure entertainment value than Collin Sexton. The bravado, the showmanship. Not many 6-foot guards will stare you down, size you up, and strike like a viper. Sexton’s unwavering confidence makes him lovable, while his undeniable talent makes him bankable.
The Jazz have brought Sexton off the bench to start the next chapter of his career — and rightfully so. While Sexton’s youthful exuberance and upside place him at the center of Utah’s “rebuild,” the Jazz aren’t exactly rebuilding right now. They’re winning. Sexton is a flawed player who has a lot left to learn and a lot of room left to grow. But, when the rubber meets the road eventually, one has to imagine the Jazz will invest in Sexton as the cornerstone piece he is.
It’s harder and harder for guards like Sexton to truly thrive in the NBA. He’s small, and thus easily targeted on defense. We haven’t seen Sexton in the playoffs yet, but competitive spirit and the will to win can only carry you so far. Bigger guards and wings will hunt Sexton on switches and very frequently win the matchup.
On the flip side, Sexton’s character and winning attitude have to factor into his re-draft appraisal. And there’s no denying the offensive prowess. At the peak of his powers in Cleveland, before the injury, Sexton was averaging well over 20 points per game while shooting above 50 percent inside the arc. That’s no small feat for a 6-foot-and-change guard who routinely plays below the rim. Sexton has to eventually match his volume-scoring efficiency with a better eye for teammates, but there’s plenty of time for those pieces to fall into place.
Jalen Brunson emerged as the second banana on a conference finals team last season. Now, he’s in the proverbial driver’s seat in New York. The Knicks have been in desperate need of a real point guard for god knows how long, so Brunson’s arrival has been a breath of fresh air — and a prime example of his talent under a bigger, brighter spotlight.
No longer playing off of Luka Doncic, one of the highest-usage guards in recent NBA history, Brunson now has far more freedom to create off the dribble. He’s paying off the Knicks’ investment on multiple fronts, averaging a career-high in points and assists. His basketball I.Q. and veteran poise are critical for a New York team that can often fall out of rhythm. While Brunson’s advanced age (26) is a mark against him in the context of this re-draft, his additional experience is well reflected in his performance.
In a league that can often punish smaller guards, the 6-foot-1 Brunson gets by with an impressive combination of craft and brute force. He’s strong, capable of bumping taller defenders off their spots to create space. When confronted with length inside, Brunson has a deep bag of tricks to fall back on. Pump fakes, hesitation moves, floaters, fadeaways — it’s hard for a defender to properly time their contest when Brunson decides to attack.
Certain defensive matchups can still cause problems for Brunson, but he competes hard at the point of attack and is comfortable defending guards several inches taller than him. Brunson just plays winning basketball, and his competitive track record dates back to well before his NBA debut in 2018.
Damian Lillard’s injury and CJ McCollum’s trade deadline departure last season cleared the runway for Anfernee Simons, who finally delivered on years of unrequited hype. The flashes have always been there with Simons, but last season he finally put the pieces together. His size, explosiveness, and talent for shot-making on the perimeter suddenly blossomed into full-blown stardom.
There are undeniable similarities between Simons and McCollum, the latter no doubt influencing the former’s development over the years. But Simons is bigger than McCollum, not to mention younger and more explosive driving downhill. Whereas the overlap between Lillard and McCollum was sometimes frustrating, there’s a much clearer path to Simons complementing and elevating Lillard without the two-star guards stepping on each other’s toes.
It’s valid to fret over Simons’ defense, but his 6-foot-9 wingspan is enough to assuage some of those worries long-term. He’s currently averaging the highest assists mark of his career despite Lillard’s return to superstar form, and Simons continues to elevate his scoring numbers without sacrificing efficiency.
Simons looks the part of a genuine offensive hub — the kind of player who can provide the bridge between generations for a franchise like Portland. He’s capable of creating his own offense from scratch or initiating for others off of dribble penetration. That, combined with his ability to bomb 3s and co-exist with other ball-dominant guards, makes Simons an easy inclusion in the lottery.
It’s hard to find a rising star more confounding and fascinating than Michael Porter Jr., the former No. 1 recruit who has battled potentially chronic back injuries to arrive at his current pivotal moment in Denver. The Nuggets’ future as a contender hinges largely on Porter’s development, and there’s no doubt that the 24-year-old (health permitting) has the juice to deliver on mile-high expectations.
The appeal with Porter is pretty simple. He’s 6-foot-10 and he’s one of the best shooters in the sport. There’s not much else to it: players with his size and shooting touch simply do not come around often. Porter doesn’t need much space to get his shot off thanks to his high release point, making him equally dangerous spotting up or pulling up off the dribble. The pre-draft Kevin Durant comparisons were always a fool’s errand, but Porter’s size and shot versatility do make him a uniquely dominant offensive weapon.
Porter’s supreme efficiency and ability to crash the glass make him a top-notch complementary star. The next step is broadening the rest of his skill set. Porter can score in bunches, but he doesn’t provide much as a passer. He’s not comfortable looking for teammates on the move and, to make matters worse, he’s quite bad on defense.
Ultimately, Porter’s defensive development is what will determine the extent of his NBA stardom. He has all the tools: a long 6-foot-10 frame with plenty of athleticism left in the tank. But, Porter’s effort and awareness are nowhere close to the necessary levels right now. He’s an easy target for prepared offenses and the kind of player who is liable to flame out in the postseason because of it. His upside is clear as day, but will Porter put in the work necessary to unlock it?
Wendell Carter Jr. ranks high on the list of star players nobody talks about. He’s obscured by the general lack of fanfare around the Orlando Magic, which is a shame — both because he’s really good, and because that team is downright fun to watch. A lot of pre-draft appraisal comes down to checking boxes. Carter’s skill set is quite expansive. He checks a lot of boxes and his weaknesses are few.
There are manifold definitions of the so-called “modern big.” A floor-spacer. A switch-friendly defender. A playmaker. Carter does it all. He can anchor the paint with his strength and towering wingspan, or he can move his feet on the perimeter. He’s not an elite shooter, but he attempts over three triples per game. He can function as a playmaking hub on the elbow, or he can fulfill the more traditional roll-man duties associated with NBA 7-footers.
There is inherently a lot of value in Carter’s ability to oscillate between different roles and skills. He provides the Magic with a lot of optionality on both sides of the ball. Part of the reason for Orlando’s wide range of lineup combinations is the fact that Carter can slide into just about any group. He’s schematically adaptable on defense. On offense, he can mold his game to the personnel on the floor. He’s the perfect No. 2 or 3 star for a future contender for that very reason. No matter who’s out there and what his role is, Carter will find ways to contribute to winning.
It’s worth doubling down on the extent of Carter’s defensive impact. He won’t join the All-Defensive team conversation until the Magic start to win games, but on a good night Orlando can look like one of the NBA’s best defenses. Carter is in the middle of it all. He’s one of the few players with the physical tools to battle the Eastern Conference’s elite bruisers like Joel Embiid and Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Robert Williams, owner of the irrefutably elite nickname “Time Lord,” officially leveled up last season. Boston’s depth can overshadow individual contributors, but Williams might have won Defensive Player of the Year over his teammate Marcus Smart were it not for an untimely late-season injury. He’s one of the absolute best rim protectors in the sport right now.
Several factors have influenced Boston’s early-season regression on the defensive end, but the most blatant factor is Williams’ absence. He’s the anchor: the team’s lone source of real rim protection, and a singular athlete who can exert his influence all over the court. On top of his rare shot-blocking instincts and cavernous 7-foot-6 wingspan, Williams has turned himself into an excellent switch defender. He can hover around the rim to erase driving lanes, or he can trot out to the perimeter and contain drives at the point of attack.
The Celtics happen to roster several upper-tier defenders, but none shined so brightly as Williams at the top of his game last season. That unique ability to provide both elite rim protection and the capacity to switch everything is enough to earn him lottery consideration. But that’s not the extent of Williams’ impact.
Not many players are better at their specific job offensively than Williams. His skill set is limited, sure — he doesn’t space the floor and he’s not going to create his own offense. But Williams is an elite above-the-rim finisher who’s also quite adept at locating teammates and passing on the move. Feed him the ball with momentum moving toward the rim, and he’s a strong bet to make something good happen.
Jaren Jackson Jr. is both young and injury-prone, which can be difficult to reconcile in the context of this re-draft. But what we know is that, when available, very few players can top Jackson’s impact on the defensive end. He finished fifth in Defensive Player of the Year voting last season and is another prime example of the innately valuable “modern” big.
One could credibly argue that Jackson was the second-best player on the second-best regular season team in the NBA last season. He is integral to the young Grizzlies’ championship aspirations. Jackson led the NBA in blocks with 2.3 per game despite averaging only 27.3 minutes. He still struggles with foul trouble every now and then, but Jackson is starting to trend toward more playing time and perennial All-Defense recognition.
A 7-foot-4 wingspan and nimble footwork allow Jackson to erase scoring opportunities for the competition. He’s an elite free safety — capable of ranging out to the perimeter when need be, but most effective hanging around the paint to muck up driving lanes. If he can break the 30-minute-per-game barrier, it’s not hard to imagine Jackson taking home some defensive hardware in the near future.
What makes Jackson unique is his ability to combine shot-blocking and 3-point shooting. Very few players in the league are genuine A-list rim protectors and competent shooters. Jackson is more than competent; he’s borderline prolific. With deep range and unwieldy confidence, Jackson can bend defenses to their breaking point while Ja Morant gashes them down the middle. It’s a fruitful combo, but that particular skill would translate to any team and any system. Having just recently turned 23 years old, Jackson still has plenty of time to build on his offensive repertoire.
Speaking of Defensive Player of the Year contenders… Mikal Bridges finished second in voting last season. The Suns have been a regular season juggernaut for two years running, in large part because of Bridges’ plenteous contributions on the defensive end. He’s no slouch offensively either, fulfilling the 3-and-D archetype so many contenders dream of.
Bridges will forever be a secondary star. He’s older than most top-10 picks here (26 years old) and he doesn’t possess the self-creation ability of other guards or wings in this range. Nor is he a rim protector, which is traditionally the most important defensive role on a team. It speaks to Bridges’ special talent, as well as the evolution of NBA basketball, that he earns top-five status nonetheless.
The era of positonless basketball is in full swing. And while people are often too quick to write off the immense value of size and rim protection, there is something to be said for elite defensive wings who can guard across 3-4 positions. Bridges can do just that, conking out the NBA’s best offensive engines on a nightly basis. He can operate as free safety and pickpocket, or he can dig in and provide stout isolation defense. When deciphering the best perimeter defenders in the NBA, he’s right there on the same level as Marcus Smart, Jrue Holiday, and the true greats.
On the offensive end, Bridges probably doesn’t get enough credit. This season he has placed more of an emphasis on driving the lane and putting pressure on the rim. He’s currently averaging a career-high in points and assists, making a concerted effort to leverage his shooting gravity and punish defenders who close out haphazardly.
A trio of elite guards has made Deandre Ayton something of an afterthought in a draft class he initially headlined. That’s not entirely his fault — Phoenix never should have picked Ayton No. 1 to begin with, but it’s not like Ayton is some abject failure. He has been to the NBA Finals already, and there’s probably an All-Star berth or two in his future.
Chris Paul’s influence on Ayton’s game is unmistakable. The Point God’s arrival three years ago allowed Ayton to streamline his offensive approach and discover new meaning in the fundamentals. Ayton has turned into an elite rim-runner who does a lot of the little things offensively: thundering screens, offensive rebounds, the like. But to describe Ayton as a mere product of Paul’s brilliance would vastly undersell his talent.
We have seen flashes of Ayton’s dominant potential over the years. He’s a bruising post scorer with polished footwork and feather-soft touch around the rim. Ayton’s mid-range jumper is coming along and it’s not hard to imagine him eventually stretching his range out to the 3-point line. He can scale up his role when needed but is willing to formulate his game to the established stars in Phoenix’s backcourt. That kind of egoless approach from a former No. 1 pick should be commended, especially when one considers the pre-draft questions about Ayton’s commitment to winning.
While Ayton faces a tall task in stacking up to several of his fellow draftees on the defensive end, he’s pretty damn good on that side of the ball. Ayton’s size and strength make him a formidable presence in the paint, but he’s also agile on the perimeter. He rebounds at a high level and can generate turnovers with his 7-foot-6 wingspan and spritely activity (this was a big draft for wingspans).
Trae Young is already one of the best offensive players in the NBA. He led the league in total points and total assists last season, the perfect summation of his prolific role within the Hawks’ offense. Young’s confidence as both a shooter and a playmaker is best described as singular. He’s capable of making every pass in the book, with the 3-point range to stretch the defense out and the speed to slice them thin.
In four full seasons, Young has already made two All-Star teams and led Atlanta to a conference finals appearance. His usage rate is through the roof and the Hawks would have it no other way. Few players are more dynamic on the ball. Young’s shifty handles, stop-start ability, and preternatural basketball I.Q. allow him to manipulate the defense almost effortlessly. His pull-up jumper is deadly well beyond the 3-point line, he has no shortage of floaters and touch shots inside the arc, and he’s equally adept at slashing to the rim and finishing among the trees.
Listed at 6-foot-1 and 164 pounds, it’s pretty amazing how successful Young has been at the professional level. He has the craft to counterbalance his size and athleticism disadvantage finishing at the rim. Meanwhile, he’s not just posting absurd individual numbers: he is materially improving the offensive circumstances for everyone who shares the court with him. John Collins and Clint Capela are in lob-city heaven. DeAndre Hunter, Bogdan Bogdanovic, now Dejounte Murray — all benefit immensely from the attention Young commands at the top of the key. And now, he’s learning to better weaponize his gravity off the ball. It’s scary stuff.
The one major drawback, and frankly the only reason Young falls to No. 3 here, is defense. Young is just too small to reliably defend in the NBA, and worse than that, he’s often straight-up apathetic on that side of the ball. It’s understandable when you consider the gargantuan offensive burden he carries every night, but Young is easily targeted and frequently exploited on the defensive end. Especially in the playoffs.
Let’s talk about Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. It’s probably considered something of a hot take to not have Trae in the No. 2 spot: the numbers are undeniable, he has two All-Star berths and a deep playoff run on his résumé, and he’s already the NBA’s favorite villain. But Gilgeous-Alexander is coming. Or, more accurately, Gilgeous-Alexander has arrived. And he’s every bit the top-15 player OKC fans are pegging him as right now.
Gilgeous-Alexander has been stuck deep in OKC’s rebuild the past few years, but the fruits of that rebuild are starting to ripen. SGA is the crowning jewel of Sam Presti’s harvest. What he lacks in traditional flare and athletic pop, Gilgeous-Alexander makes up for with length, skill, and craft. Endlessly slick and virtually impossible to stop one-on-one, the 24-year-old has a real talent for putting defenders in the blender.
At 6-foot-6, Gilgeous-Alexander has the size to exploit every little advantage he creates. He can change speeds on a dime, going stop-start-stop-start until his defender is out of position and grasping at air. He can elevate for pull-up jumpers, hit unconventionally angled floaters, or drive the lane and finish with touch at the rim. He’s excellent at absorbing contact and weaponizing his own physicality. His unique cocktail of long strides, constantly shifting momentum, and nutty shot-making is simply unlike anything anywhere else in the NBA right now. He might not explode off the screen like some superstars, but I dare you to watch a couple Thunder games and tell me SGA isn’t a singular joy to watch.
To win in the NBA, you pretty much need a creator of Gilgeous-Alexander’s caliber — a true offensive workhouse who can generate points from scratch and playmake for others off of drives. What pushes SGA over Young and into the No. 2 spot, however, is defense. Gilgeous-Alexander is making the leap offensively and defensively this season. He’s big enough to guard multiple positions, with magnetic limbs that can block shots or intercept passes. He possesses the tools and the attitude to be a true two-way star.
Luka Doncic was probably the most obvious No. 1 pick since LeBron James… and he went third overall, making Phoenix and Sacramento instantly regretful with the most explosive rookie season in recent memory. Since then, Doncic has made three straight All-Star appearances, led Dallas to the conference finals in 2022, and positioned himself to compete for MVP in 2023.
He is the singular stat sheet stuffer of his generation — the highest-usage player in the NBA, currently occupying a role in Dallas that is not dissimilar to James Harden’s years of mega-usage at his peak in Houston. The Dallas offense is truly heliocentric. Doncic determines tempo, shot distribution, probably play calls — he’s the NBA equivalent of a quarterback, or at least the closest we’ll get to such a parallel.
And, that play style is generally very effective. The Mavericks would be wise to pair Doncic with a true second star at some point, but right now there’s no more effective offensive engine than the 23-year-old Serbian superstar. He can beat the defense from anywhere on the court. Bring too much pressure and he’ll pick you apart with his passing. Leave him isolated on the perimeter, and Doncic can put just about any defender in the torture chamber. A physical driver with endless craft, body control, and feather-soft touch, Doncic seldom has trouble carving out space to shoot. He can hit the defense with floaters, fadeaways, running one-legged 3s — really anything he comes up with on the spot. He freestyles better than anyone else.
There is fair criticism levied at Doncic over his shoddy defense and fickle conditioning, but he carries the single biggest offensive workload of any player in the NBA. He pushed Dallas to the conference finals last season while shouldering that load, and his conditioning appears markedly better to start the new season. He’s one of the three or four best players on the planet.