Stat shows how big of a hit Tom Brady and Bucs playoff hopes just took

Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Photo by Nick Cammett/Getty Images)
Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Photo by Nick Cammett/Getty Images) /

One playoff projection changed dramatically when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers lost to the Cleveland Browns in Week 12.

The NFC South is pure garbage, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers stood atop that pile of garbage. While they retain that prestigious title of “kings of the garbage pile”, their quest to secure a playoff slot is further up in the air after they lost in Week 12 to the Cleveland Browns in overtime.

FiveThirtyEight has a model that predicts each team’s likelihood of making the postseason, winning their division, getting a first-round bye, and winning the Super Bowl.

Had the Bucs been able to secure a win over the Browns, their playoff chances would have increased to 80 percent. Instead, they dropped to 69 percent according to FiveThirtyEight’s model.

What’s worse for Tampa Bay is that likelihood could drop even further if the Saints upset the San Francisco 49ers in the late afternoon slate on Sunday. The projection is that the probability would fall to 64 percent for Tampa if that happens.

Tom Brady’s decision to un-retire seems ill-advised

Tom Brady changed his mind on retirement for one reason and one reason only: To try his hand at another Super Bowl. Though he seemingly could play for another decade if he wanted to, the need to compete every year at this point in Brady’s life is urgent.

The Bucs, at this point, seem far away from the goal this year, and they might be far away from it next year, too.

FiveThirtyEight’s model gives them just a one percent chance of winning the Super Bowl this season. If anyone can defy those chances, yes, it’s Tom Brady, but it feels like a long shot even for him.

Whoever comes out of the NFC South is sure to be an underdog in their first matchup of the playoffs, because boy, this division stinks.

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