A superstar, injuries, and flawed greatness — that is the story of the 2019 NBA Draft so far.
Seldom has there been a stronger consensus on the No. 1 pick than there was in the 2019 NBA Draft. That was the year of Zion Williamson. He blew minds at Duke. He expanded horizons and changed how we talked about NBA prospects. No one in college basketball has ever looked quite like that.
The Pelicans were the team lucky enough to select Williamson with the first overall pick. It has been anything but smooth sailing since. Williamson missed most of his rookie season, emerged on the precipice of superstardom in his sophomore season, then missed his entire third season. Injuries have plagued him at every turn, as have rumors of discontent. He butted heads with the Pelicans’ medical staff, and at one point it sounded like he might try to force his way out.
It just goes to show: there’s never a truly safe bet in the NBA Draft.
Who would go No. 1 overall if the 2019 NBA Draft were held today?
Williamson has since signed an extension. He’s probably going to make several All-Star appearances in New Orleans before all is said and done. But the Pelicans, deep down, have to be second-guessing their decision to draft Williamson. He’s not the only superstar or superstar-adjacent player to emerge from the class of 2019. Ja Morant earned MVP votes last season and Darius Garland is a full-blown offensive star in Cleveland.
The 2019 NBA Draft proved deep on talent, if a little shallow in terms of all-around reliability. There are a lot of one-way players and injury-tainted careers on the docket. Let’s see how the order might have played out with the benefit of hindsight.
Darius Bazley has kicked it into high gear defensively for the up-and-coming Thunder. His positional versatility, ability to space the floor, and flashes of raw athletic talent earn him first-round status.
John Konchar is the quintessential NBA role player. He plays smart, unselfish basketball, competes on defense and is an absolute sniper spotting up behind the 3-point line.
Jaylen Nowell is an excellent heat-check scorer who can handle the basketball and roast defenses with his pull-up jumper. He needs to expand his ancillary skill set, but the scoring repertoire is hard to deny.
Coby White is an intriguing combo-guard with plenty of long-term appeal because of his positional size and ability to score in bunches.
Cody Martin doesn’t have the same job security as his twin brother at present, but he’s a similarly versatile defender who occupies the increasingly valuable 3-and-D niche so many contenders covet.
A former top recruit with plenty of brute strength and a 7-foot-2 wingspan, Nassir Little’s defensive versatility should keep him on the NBA radar for a while. He’s also getting better from 3-point range with each passing season.
A lanky, explosive athlete who gobbles up space in the middle of the floor, Jaxson Hayes faired well in extended minutes last season. He has the potential to be a monstrous shot-blocker and efficient rim-runner.
It’s probably best to take Luguentz Dort’s raw scoring numbers with a grain of salt given his extreme inefficiency and the unique volume of opportunities he receives as part of OKC’s rebuild. That said, his dogged on-ball defense is very real. He should carve out a future on the strength of his defense alone.
Daniel Gafford has played important minutes over the last few years in Washington. He’s another bouncy athlete who can play above the rim, inhale rebounds, and block shots.
Caleb Martin has worked his way into starting minutes for the Heat. His versatile defense on the wing, combined with knockdown shooting beyond the arc, makes Martin a poster child for 3-and-D wings.
Rui Hachimura’s scoring profile is starting to look better. He made 44.7 percent of his 3s last season. The first couple years of his career felt very much like empty calories, but we’re starting to see the upside of Hachimura’s physically imposing play style.
Naz Reid was an endlessly fascinating prospect coming out of LSU. It’s safe to say his many quirks and specialties have translated to the NBA level. Reid can use his strength to pummel smaller defenders at the rim, but he’s also an avid runner in transition with real floor-spacing ability.
Terance Mann’s Swiss Army Knife attributes have found a comfortable home in the NBA. He can operate as a floor-spacer and play finisher, or he can run a little backup point guard. His variety of skills and two-way versatility at 6-foot-5 make Mann an ideal modern wing.
Matisse Thybulle has made two All-Defensive teams despite limited minutes, which is no small feat. His athleticism, activity level, and instincts are off the charts. Unfortunately, he’s one of the absolute worst offensive players in the NBA right now.
Kevin Porter Jr.’s natural talent has never been in question. He’s a slippery scorer with ample craft and flair. That said, “attitude” concerns plagued him early in his career and his role within the Rockets’ offense doesn’t always feel sustainable. Does Porter’s current play style translate to winning, or is he putting up empty calories for the loss-hungry Rockets?
Max Strus came out of nowhere last season. He rose swiftly from relative unknown to starting wing for the 1-seed Miami Heat. Now he’s entrenched in that role, providing Miami with critical spacing and connective tissue on the offensive end.
The Nets have faced the unenviable challenge of balancing Nic Claxton’s breakout season with the simple fact that neither he nor Ben Simmons can shoot, and the latter — supposedly the third wheel of Brooklyn’s deadly Big Three — has struggled rather extensively at times. That said, despite the awkward fit and nonstop drama around the Nets franchise, Claxton is indeed blossoming.
A lanky 7-footer who can sprint the floor like a gazelle, Claxton does in theory fit Brooklyn’s up-tempo, spaced-out offense (if only the Nets were actually up-tempo and spaced-out). He can terrorize defenses in transition or play the more traditional rim-runner role in the halfcourt. As of this writing, he’s leading the league in field goal percentage; once he catches the ball near the rim, Claxton’s blend of length, trampoline athleticism, and soft touch make him hard to stop.
What really cements Claxton in the lottery, however, is defense. There just aren’t many centers, even in today’s more modern and mobile game, who can defend as flexibly as Claxton. His lateral quickness and 7-foot-3 wingspan allow Claxton to devour space and block a lot of shots around the basket. He can also switch onto the perimeter and contain guards or wings at the point of attack. He’s system-proof. A true 16-game player.
He would benefit from more strength in certain matchups, but Claxton’s defensive versatility is a one-way ticket to relevance for the rest of his prime. Good teams need players who can protect the rim without getting roasted in space. Plus, he flashes some real skill on top of his raw athleticism offensively. There’s a lot to like here, both short and long-term.
With Miles Bridges out of the picture, P.J. Washington has (re)assumed the mantle of starting power forward in Charlotte and run with it. His efficiency has suffered under the weight of increased offensive responsibilities, but there’s reason to believe he can steady the ship over time. He’s finding new ways to leverage his strength and mobility in the frontcourt.
Washington has long been one of the most interesting prospects from the 2019 draft. He’s custom-made for the modern NBA — a burly 6-foot-7 wing who can slide into the backup center role as needed. He can switch on defense, he keeps the floor spaced for Charlotte’s guards, and there have been hints of real playmaking upside in the past.
He’s never going to be the go-to option, but Washington’s varied skill set allows him to take what the defense gives him. Leave him alone on the perimeter and he can feast on spot-up jumpers. Leave him isolated on a smaller defender and Washington will bully his way to points in the post. He can even operate as a playmaking hub of sorts from the elbow.
If you’re looking to check boxes, not many players will check more across the board than Washington. He stuffs the stat sheet every night, he can fit with just about any personnel group, and the list of glaring weaknesses is preciously short.
How high can Bol Bol rise on the strength of one quarter-season after spending the first three years of his career glued to the bench? That is the question we must all reckon with. Right now, Bol looks much better than the No. 12 pick. He’s a sensation, lighting the NBA world on fire with his monster two-way numbers in Orlando. But, he’s also historically injury-prone, and, again, we’ve only seen about 20 games of sustained productive NBA basketball from the Oregon product.
Bol was drafted by Denver in the second round, which ultimately proved quite harmful for his NBA development. He never really got a chance there, in part due to injuries, but also because the Nuggets were trying to win games. Now in Orlando, Bol is suddenly the starting power forward. He has leapfrogged Mo Bamba in the frontcourt pecking order after Bamba’s own breakout campaign last season. And heck, he looks very much like a winning player.
He’s still only 23 years old. Any 23-year-old rookie doing what Bol is currently doing would probably fall comfortably in this range, if not higher. One shouldn’t necessarily penalize Bol for his three years in obscurity. That said, the long list of injuries on his résumé — along with the natural concerns tied to his string-bean frame — cannot be ignored.
But let’s focus for now on his current level of play. And the upside, because the NBA Draft is ultimately about upside. Bol has been one of the NBA’s best rim protectors through 20-odd games while also hitting over 40 percent of his 3-point attempts. He can defend competently in space, he can handle the ball fluidity in transition, and there are flashes of legitimate pull-up shooting from a 7-foot-2 big. He’s incredible to watch, and there’s a good chance he lands much higher next time we do this exercise.
Cameron Johnson was the biggest lottery surprise of 2019. Originally projected toward the back end of the first round, Phoenix made the shocking decision to draft the four-year senior with the No. 11 pick. It’s fair to say he rewarded the Suns for their confidence, quickly emerging as a reliable 3-and-D wing and essential contributor for the West’s most prolific regular season team.
The NBA Draft is often a battle of ideology. What do teams value most: floor or ceiling? While Johnson might not have “star” upside, he’s a bonafide starter who can thrive in virtually any team context. He’s a 40 percent 3-point shooter and a versatile defender at 6-foot-8.
There are questions about what kind of contract Johnson will command next summer, but that’s a good problem to have in Phoenix’s position. He’s older than most players in the draft, but even at 26 years old, it’s impossible to keep Johnson out of the lottery here. Elite role players often end up providing much more value than theoretical stars.
Johnson should have a long career ahead of him. He won’t provide much on the periphery — he’s not prolific on the glass and he’s not going to create much off the dribble — but Johnson will bury multiple 3s per game, play selfless connective basketball, and provide positional flexibility on defense.
The Grizzlies’ depth (combined with the singularly bright spotlight on Ja Morant) can make it hard to appreciate the individual talent on display across the roster. Brandon Clarke doesn’t even crack 20 minutes per game but he is one of the NBA’s elite role players. Very much in the tradition of Cameron Johnson, he’s the kind of surefire contributor you can’t pass up in the lottery.
The 26-year-old Clarke’s journey to the NBA was long and winding. He played two years in the shadows at San Diego State before going to Gonzaga and completely reinventing his game for the nation’s top contender. Clarke is a master of small things: a deadly, dynamic rim-runner who fits neatly into his box offensively and absolutely obliterates defenses within that box.
Clarke has stopped taking 3s for the most part, instead focusing his efforts on attacking the painted area. At 6-foot-8, Clarke is undersized for the traditional rim-running role. But he jumps out of the building, possessing elite maneuverability when faced with multiple bodies in the paint. He can go over the top and play above the rim, or he can lean on his floater. He has feather-soft touch and the polished footwork necessary to carve out space on the move.
He also makes things happen on the defensive end. Clarke’s pogo-stick leaping ability often translates to blocked shots or rebounds. He can generate whirlwinds of activity around the rim or in passing lanes. He can protect the rim as small-ball five, or switch out to the perimeter and guard the point of attack. His two-way flexibility and elite complementary skill set cement Clarke in the top 10.
It has been difficult to get a proper read on De’Andre Hunter over the years because of injuries. The flashes of brilliance are there, but it feels like every time his game starts to take shape Hunter gets hit with another injury and another extended absence. He played 63 of 82 games as a rookie and has never eclipsed that number in the years since.
So, why is Hunter still in the top 10? He doesn’t have the most impressive all-around numbers, and it’s fair to wonder if he’ll ever be able to put together a full season while carrying a starter’s workload. But let’s assume that Hunter does eventually achieve and maintain full health. Well, then it’s hard to imagine his two-way excellence staying off the broader NBA radar for long.
Hunter is well-positioned for success in Atlanta. He now has two brilliant playmakers feeding him the ball on the wing, as well as two elite vertical threats populating the frontcourt next to him. It’s the ideal environment for Hunter to focus on his strengths. He might not create much for others, but Hunter can frequently torch defenses off the catch. He can hit 3s, or venture into the mid-range game where he has displayed impressive tough-shot ability.
A strong and deliberate scorer on the wing, Hunter has legitimate No. 2 or 3 option upside if the circumstances ever favor such development. If not, he’s an excellent floor spacer who can defend the opposition’s best player every night. And that last part is what truly sets Hunter apart here: when operating at full strength, he looks like a proper defensive stopper on the wing.
Grant Williams was egregiously underrated coming out of Tennessee and was destined to outperform his late-first-round draft position. The Celtics are another absurdly deep team, which means Williams can sometimes get buried beneath the avalanche of greatness on that roster. That said, the 23-year-old got to make his case on the biggest stage last season. He was an absolute wrecking ball in the playoffs, all the way up to and throughout the NBA Finals.
He belongs in the same group as Cameron Johnson and Brandon Clarke: an absolute stud role player who might never get enough credit for his excellence within the confines of his role. Williams is no star athlete and he won’t produce flashy numbers, but he’s a defensive tornado and a special connective player on offense.
At 6-foot-6, Williams is built like a linebacker. Defensively, he can switch all over the floor, stonewalling drivers at the point of attack with 236 pounds of muscle and active hands. He’s all over the place, yet always in the right place. On the offensive end, he prides himself on making the right decision. He’s a snappy and unselfish passer, head always on a swivel. He moves without the ball, sets strong and timely screens, and after struggling with his 3-point shot early in his career, Williams is now a downright prolific spot-up shooter. He’s the ideal complement to Boston’s gaggle of star playmakers.
You won’t find many higher-level role players. Williams doesn’t need the ball to impact winning. He’s comfortable operating behind the curtains but is capable of producing the occasional big night when called upon — mainly due to that improved 3-point shot. Defenses can’t ignore him and offenses dread him.
Keldon Johnson continues to build on his impressive 2021-22 season. He is firmly cemented as the Spurs’ No. 2 option, a versatile scoring forward who pairs nicely with the emergent Devin Vassell. A career 38.2 percent 3-point shooter, Johnson checks many of the 3-and-D boxes teams covet on the wing.
He continues to refine his shot profile (8.3 attempts per game from deep so far this season) while building, slowly but surely, on his ancillary repertoire. Johnson’s rebounding numbers are momentarily down but they should jump back up soon. His current career-high assist numbers, however, are more indicative of progress and a sign of the potential for further growth. He is adjusting well to a bigger and bigger role each season.
Listed at 6-foot-5, Johnson plays much bigger than his height thanks to his broad shoulders and muscular frame. Johnson has not ascended to the level of elite defender yet, but he’s switchable across several positions and capable of crashing the glass with real verve. He makes his presence felt on that side of the ball and has the physical tools to keep getting better.
A reliable 20-point scorer who projects as the second or third banana on a future winner, it’s fairly easy to peg Johnson in the top 10. He still needs to round out his skill set more than some of his contemporaries, but the athleticism and base talent are plain to see.
Jordan Poole was integral to Golden State’s championship run last season, emerging as arguably the NBA’s most dynamic sixth man. There have been noticeable growing pains to start the new league year, but it’s best to not let 20-odd games color your opinion too much. Poole’s electricity on the offensive end absolutely crackles.
That unfortunate practice session with Draymond Green aside, the Warriors have provided the perfect incubation space for Poole. He gets to learn first-hand from Stephen Curry, seeing how preparation leads to production. Curry’s unique talent for off-ball movement has rubbed off on Poole, making him much more than your average shot-thirsty bench guard.
Poole does a lot of his damage on the ball, torching defenses with herky-jerky handles and slick footwork. But he’s also capable of traversing screens, keeping the defense occupied off the ball and punishing the slightest lapse in attention. He’s an elite volume shooter who can hit shots from every angle — on the move, pulling up, or simply catch-and-shoot.
The next step in Poole’s development is two-fold: he has to get better on defense and he has to get better at keeping teammates involved. He’s much more of a black hole than Curry, which has been especially problematic early in this season. Poole draws a ton of attention with his shooting gravity. Now, he has to learn to weaponize it as a playmaker for others.
Tyler Herro ran away with the NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year award last season. Miami rewarded him with a lucrative contract extension and a spot in the starting five. While Herro’s numbers have actually dipped slightly in his new role, it’s impossible to deny the sheer volume of production from the former Kentucky guard. He can score with the best of ’em.
The reason for Herro coming off the bench for as long as he did is no secret: he’s a below-average defender. Though he’s listed at 6-foot-5, Herro’s skinny frame and comically short wingspan (6-foot-3) limit his ability to handle certain matchups. He’s already fighting an uphill battle in that respect, so his general apathy on the defensive end only makes matters worse. He needs to work harder on that side of the ball.
Then, there’s the offense. He’s just mesmerizing to watch. Herro can get hot quickly, and when he does he can single-handedly shift a game’s energy in Miami’s favor. His microwave shot-making is the perfect complement to Jimmy Butler’s more deliberate offensive approach. Herro deploys a deadly first step, and once the defender is on his back foot, Herro is unlikely to relinquish the advantage. He’s absolutely relentless off the dribble, possessing a very deep bag of tricks and a laser-sharp pull-up jumper.
Last season, Herro was effective in his minutes as a ball-handler. There’s genuine star upside here based on his prodigious offensive talent alone. The defense is a major drawback and he probably won’t get much better on that side of the ball, to be frank. But he’s so good offensively that it hardly matters most nights.
The R.J. Barrett experience to start the new league year has been quite rough. He’s currently shooting below 40 percent from the field for a Knicks team that is simply not living up to whatever expectations we had for that team. But, again, we shouldn’t normally read too far into 20-odd games. He was splendid the last couple of seasons and there’s reason to believe he can return to form eventually.
In many ways, the 6-foot-6 Barrett is built for the modern NBA. He has shown real playmaking ability on the wing. He’s strong and explosive, which translates to switchability on the defensive end. The 3-point shot, when it’s there, complements his ability to rumble downhill and attack the rim. He has the makings of an efficient inside-out scorer who can create for others and defend across the positional spectrum.
Not all the pieces have fallen into place yet. Barrett’s success rate beyond the arc tends to fluctuate. His shot selection isn’t as clean and precise as you’d like. The defense is there in moments, but he doesn’t commit 100 percent to that side of the ball. At the end of the day, however, Barrett is a 22-year-old former top recruit who does have all the pieces. His myriad flaws cannot be ignored, but the upside is undeniable. There’s a very complete two-way star buried somewhere beneath the surface.
Can the Knicks unearth that two-way star? Who knows — that franchise is a perpetual disaster, always one step forward and two steps back. I’m not sure Tom Thibodeau is the player development savant New York needs, nor has Julius Randle been the best complement to Barrett’s skill set in the last couple of years. But we have seen enough from the No. 3 overall pick to retain long-term confidence. He’s a physical slasher with the potential to be much, much more.
Darius Garland made his first of what should be many All-Star appearances last season. Injuries eventually derailed Cleveland’s first real stab at contention post-LeBron, but now the Cavs are fully back on the radar. Donovan Mitchell understandably absorbs a lot of the spotlight nowadays, but if anything, his presence has only empowered Garland more.
The Vanderbilt guard is on pace for career-best marks in scoring, 3-point volume, and shooting efficiency. Garland is no longer the primary focus of opposing defenses, which frees him up to attack lesser defenders. He gets more open 3s by way of Mitchell (which he’s great at knocking down), but Garland remains more than capable of leading the charge offensively.
The modern NBA hinges extensively on the pick-and-roll. Garland is an elite pick-and-roll guard, possessing both the shooting gravity to warp defenses and the passing vision to exploit breakdowns in coverage. He has the burst to get inside and attack the paint, or he can sit back and obliterate drop coverage with his pull-up jumper.
There are unavoidable defensive concerns with Garland, who is listed at 6-foot-1 and 192 pounds. That will always limit his ceiling to some degree. But offensively, there aren’t many point guards operating at Garland’s level right now. He can oscillate between roles offensively based on personnel, but he’s fully capable of being the go-to option for a very good team. He’s cemented in the top-3 right now.
Zion Williamson still has a compelling case to go first overall. At the time of the 2019 draft, it would have been foolhardy to consider anyone other than Williamson with the top spot. He’s a singular athletic force: the most dominant interior scorer in the NBA when healthy. If he can maintain good health and fix a few key areas of weakness, it won’t take long for Williamson to reclaim his place at No. 1.
But, for now, he falls ever so slightly to the No. 2 spot. Mostly because of injuries. Williamson missed all of last season. He played only 24 games as a rookie, then managed 61 games in his “healthy” sophomore campaign. The extensive list of injuries on his résumé, combined with constant concerns about his conditioning in relation to his explosive athleticism, make it hard to project Williamson’s future with any level of confidence.
Despite those looming question marks, however, one cannot deny the talent. Williamson is a 6-foot-6 wrecking ball, possessing a blend of power, speed, and explosiveness completely unique to him. He cannot shoot 3s, and yet no NBA defense has figured out how to keep Williamson away from the rim. He’s too fast for bigger forwards and too strong for more nimble wings. Put multiple defenders in front of him, and Williamson can negotiate through tight spaces with inhuman precision. His footwork, burst, touch around the rim — it’s all pretty hard to believe at first glance.
Williamson even took on point guard duties of a kind before his injury a couple years ago. There has been an adjustment period with his new teammates to begin the 2022-23 season, but Williamson is an adept playmaker in addition to his potential to lead the NBA in scoring one day. The main thing holding him back (aside from injuries) is defense. Williamson just doesn’t look all that interested in being a good defender right now. That will have to change if he wants to reach his ceiling.
Ja Morant entered another stratosphere last season. Now, he looks like a regular MVP candidate — the only truly bankable superstar from the 2019 draft who hasn’t missed 100+ games in three years and change. Morant is more reliable than Williamson, and to be completely frank, he’s just playing better basketball right now.
There are valid concerns tied to Morant’s slender frame and defensive shortcomings. And, unlike Williamson, Morant doesn’t really have the physical tools to develop into a better defender. He’s too small. But the offense is undeniable. The list of better team leaders right now is slim. Morant is the head of the snake in Memphis, with the Grizzlies playing uniquely unselfish team basketball under his guidance.
There are some striking similarities between Morant and Williamson offensively. We’re talking about arguably the two most prolific slashers in the game. Morant can’t be kept out of the paint either: he’s too damn explosive off the bounce, weaponizing his elite first step and long strides to torch even the league’s best perimeter defenders. Morant’s 3-point shot is improving too, which means defenses can’t comfortably sag off. Go under screens, and Morant is more capable than ever of making the defense pay.
As the weaknesses are stripped away over time, Morant’s deadly blend of speed, explosiveness, and feel will only become more difficult to stop. He’s a constant source of dribble penetration, forcing the defense to collapse before picking them apart with his expert passing vision. When Morant’s not scoring at the rim, he’s likely spoon-feeding open teammates or setting the Grizzlies’ dynamic offense in motion. He has earned the No. 1 spot by sheer force of will.