The 2023 NBA Draft will be the most hotly anticipated in years. How will the first round play out after the inevitable selection at No. 1?
With the new year on our doorstep, it’s never too early to look ahead to next summer’s NBA Draft. While there’s an obvious headliner in Victor Wembanyama, the talent from top to bottom is worth monitoring. There are several potential high-impact players in the mix.
The college season has already delivered numerous early surprises and a handful of notable disappointments. Meanwhile, the overseas circuit is no different — some players standing out from the crowd while other prospects battle their own inexperience in the face of physical, professional competition.
Who gets picked in the first round of our 2023 NBA Mock Draft?
To keep things interesting, we have determined the lottery order via Tankathon simulation. The trajectory of a few stray pingpong balls has the potential to define the next decade-plus of NBA basketball — how fun!
In the grand tradition of mock drafts, this will serve simultaneously as a measure of my personal taste as well as a tentative projection of what teams might do based on roster needs and the current NBA landscape. It’s an imprecise science, with months of new film and analytical revelations still to come.
For now, here’s how the first round looks. If you’d like to read our top-60 prospect rankings, click here!
He’s rough around the edges, but the appeal of Kel’el Ware is pretty straightforward: he’s a mega-athlete in the middle who flashes the ability to stretch defenses out to the 3-point line. With Myles Turner’s future in question, the Pacers (who own several first-round picks) could be in the market for frontcourt insurance.
A locally sourced wing prospect for the Rockets, who still have holes to plug in their rebuild. Eric Gordon won’t last forever and the Rockets’ young wing depth is mostly unproven, so getting another versatile two-way piece to play off of Jalen Green is sensible.
The Lakers need some juice offensively, especially with Russell Westbrook finally off the books next summer (if not by the trade deadline). Terquavion Smith is a monster pull-up shooter with endless confidence who fits the classic sixth man bucket-getter role.
The Grizzlies’ only position of relative “weakness” might be center. Steven Adams is older than most of the Memphis core and the majority of bigs on that roster profile more comfortably as fours. Dereck Lively is a big body who will block shots and give them a towering presence in the middle. He would also find a fruitful pick-and-roll partner in the form of Ja Morant.
The Pacers add to their wing depth by investing in the versatile and dynamic skill set of G-League Ignite’s Sidy Cissoko. He has a ways to go offensively, but the athleticism, playmaking flashes, and impressive commitment to defense earn him first-round status.
The Hornets need to start winning games eventually. Colby Jones is one of the most well-rounded wings in college basketball, the type of team-first, two-way player all contenders need. He’s shooting over 50 percent on the season, he can defend multiple positions, and he’s a snappy decision-maker with obvious potential as connective tissue on a team built around the playmaking brilliance of LaMelo Ball.
Phoenix has missed Jae Crowder on the wing this season. Chris Livingston needs to hammer out his 3-point stroke, but the indicators are positive and he can shift the momentum of games with his defensive intensity.
The Jazz’s financial commitment to Collin Sexton could complicate the fit for Marcus Sasser, another short guard who’s more “combo” than “point” guard. But I’m confident in Sasser’s playmaking progression long term and Utah could use another ball-handler to ease the inevitable transition beyond Mike Conley.
Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox have propelled the Kings’ offense to borderline elite status. In Rayan Rupert, Sacramento moves to sure up the defensive side of the ball. With a 7-foot-3 wingspan, the mobility to chase ball-handlers around the perimeter, and an impressive track record of success against professional competition in Australia’s NBL, Rayan Rupert would make a compelling fit for the suddenly-contending Kings.
Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving can paper over a lot of flaws in roster-building. That said, if the Nets truly want to make the most out of the Ben Simmons acquisition, it would be wise to invest in a legitimate stretch five. Kyle Filipowski can space the floor and infuse Brooklyn’s frontcourt with more skill.
The Bulls are a rudderless ship right now and there’s no telling which direction the wind will blow between now and the season’s end. That said, Tyrese Proctor’s polished playmaking instincts and committed on-ball defense would fit anywhere. He can play table-setter regardless of whether or not Chicago keeps its stars.
The Clippers’ insane depth allows them to bet on upside. Dillon Mitchell might be the best athlete in the draft, a 6-foot-9 forward who can leap out of the gym and make eye-popping plays on defense. He has a long way to go skill-wise, but the Clippers are a good organization to grow with.
New York is frantically trying to clear space in their backcourt rotation, and yet, they could still use a bigger guard to provide connective tissue between Jalen Brunson, Julius Randle, and R.J. Barrett. Enter Jalen Hood-Schifino, the talented 6-foot-6 freshman with a penchant for funky shots and clever passes.
Let’s give the Warriors a 6-foot-8 wing with impressive movement shooting skills, flashes of legitimate on-ball creation, and the ability to guard multiple positions. Because why not. It’s about time for Golden State to invest in a player who’s a clear match skill-wise, rather than investing purely in athleticism and “upside.”
Brother of Keegan Murray, last year’s No. 4 pick, Kris Murray supplies size, shooting, and fluid straight-line drives at the four spot. The Hawks might have some forward minutes opening up soon if John Collins gets traded. Murray looks plug-and-play ready for the next level.
The Pacers have quietly constructed a very well-rounded roster. Dariq Whitehead checks a lot of boxes, giving them more length and versatility on the wing, as well as a player whose skill set complements the playmaking acumen of Indiana’s primary creators, Tyrese Haliburton and Bennedict Mathurin.
The Jazz started the season blisteringly hot but have since regressed, looking more like a play-in/back of the lottery team than a surprise contender. With multiple first-round picks at their disposal, Utah has the opportunity to address several needs here. Enter Nikola Durisic, the big Serbian guard who supplies playmaking upside and defensive versatility.
Playing for Mega Basket of the Adriatic League — a team with a long track record of producing NBA talent — Durisic has produced admirably against professional competition. At 6-foot-8, he would give Utah another ball-handler. Given Mike Conley’s age and Collin Sexton’s limitations, the Jazz would be smart to invest in players who can share the playmaking burden and provide connective tissue offensively.
Durisic has to get better as a decision-maker, like most teenagers, but the flashes are just undeniable. He looks fluid coming off screens, driving downhill, and transitioning into his pull-up jumper. He also flashes serious upside as a passer and would fit cleanly in Utah’s movement-heavy offense.
Then there’s the defensive end, where Durisic has proven his mettle with physicality at the point of attack and versatility across multiple positions. The Jazz have struggled to get stops all season, so they would definitely hope Durisic maxes out his potential on that side of the ball.
There were valid questions about GG Jackson’s readiness to contribute coming into the season at South Carolina. He’s only 17 years old, the youngest player in the draft. Those questions have been rendered moot: he looks comfortable and aggressive in a featured role for the Gamecocks. With his combination of youth and athleticism, expect Jackson to hold the intrigue of NBA scouts all season.
For Utah, it’s best to maintain the longview when preparing for next season and beyond. Even if Danny Ainge decides to let his team ride out the current campaign as fun, middle-of-the-pack “contenders,” Utah is far removed from title contention. And, with multiple first-round picks, it would be wise to take a few swings at upside.
Jackson has no shortage of that. He’s 6-foot-9 with an explosive first step toward the basket and plenty of strength to finish through contact at the rim. He can settle for bad shots and his decision-making is unsurprisingly chaotic at times, but it’s hard not to be impressed by the fluidity with which he elevates into pull-up jumpers or slashes down the lane. He’s already hitting a healthy volume of 3s, which bodes well for his NBA future.
Right now, Jackson doesn’t really elevate teammates and he can look uninspired on the defensive end. Physically, on paper, he should be able to defend all over the place, but he’s not great in space against quicker, more agile ball-handlers and he doesn’t really protect the rim. But he’s also 17 years old with a very clear path to massive improvement on that side of the ball. Utah should proceed happily and with patience.
The Knicks finally have steady point guard production to complement the (at times unstable) frontcourt playmaking of Julius Randle and R.J. Barrett. Now, they need to surround their core with solid complementary pieces who can shoot, defend, and connect the dots for Tom Thibodeau’s offense.
Gradey Dick has been one of the biggest early-season risers on draft boards. It’s not hard to see why: at 6-foot-7, he’s a knockdown movement shooter with the athleticism to get out in the open court and play above the rim. He already looks like more than a cookie cutter 3-and-D wing, and he’s the exact kind of secondary talent the Knicks should covet.
New York’s lack of consistent two-way production from its reserves has been an Achilles heel. Dick brings energy and a measure of versatility to the defensive end, which can’t be said for every shooting specialist who enters the NBA. He can fly around screens, make timely cuts to the rim, and constantly move into open space to present the Knicks’ creators with a play-finishing outlet.
Paired with Quentin Grimes and Immanuel Quickley long-term (assuming the Knicks don’t panic-trade Quickley), Dick would give the New York backcourt a solid foundation around Jalen Brunson. He’s not the most explosive or imminently talented player on the board, but Dick profiles as an immediate contributor and high-level role player who can elevate the Knicks’ stars with floor spacing and rock-solid execution.
Toronto might be stuck in no-man’s land: better than their current record suggests but nowhere near good enough to actually contend in the East. Pascal Siakam is a star, Scottie Barnes will get better, and there’s still value in Toronto’s unique concoction of length and defensive flexibility. But, the offense needs a major facelift. Enter Baylor’s Keyonte George.
He fits the player archetype Toronto presently lacks: a bigger guard who can break down the defense one-on-one and score prolifically at all three levels. Not many players in college basketball are better at making tough shots than George. He will step confidently into pull-up jumpers, often generating space with an impressive first step and precise footwork. He can also use his broad shoulders and 220-pound frame to bully small guards and power his way through contact in the paint.
George looks equally comfortable off the ball too, flying off screens and nailing movement 3s. He averages close to eight attempts per game from deep, mixing in a healthy variety of step-backs, side-steps and pull-ups. The Raptors would benefit immensely from his shot volume and dynamism on the perimeter.
He even has the potential to live up to Toronto’s titanic defensive identity. At 6-foot-4, George wields the length and strength necessary to guard up a handful of positions depending on the matchup. His effort and effectiveness on the defensive end has fluctuated in the past, but the tools for success are in place.
The departure of P.J. Tucker has left Miami with a troubling lack of size and toughness on the wing. It would be naive to suggest the Heat can solve all their problems with a rookie, but Brandon Miller fits cleanly on paper. At 6-foot-9, he brings size and shot-making to the perimeter and would have a pretty clear path to early minutes with the franchise (especially if the Heat decide to pivot toward youth sooner than later).
Before the season, many concerns were raised about Miller’s ability to transition to the higher level of competition in college. He’s still young and unpolished, but Alabama has deployed Miller in a feature role to great effect: he’s handling the ball, attacking defenders one-on-one, and making advanced passing reads on the move.
Most impressive is Miller’s 3-point volume: he’s shooting 42.9 percent on 7.0 attempts per game as of this writing. That, combined with his fluidity attacking downhill and getting into pull-up jumpers will have plenty of NBA teams seeing future stardom. He has been much less efficient inside the arc, however, and there are examples of him taking far too long to make a decision. That being said, his athleticism and shooting touch should spark optimism and the Heat run one of the best player development programs in the NBA.
The Heat seem to unearth interesting young talent every season. If they stick in the lottery range it could spark broader conversations about the direction of that franchise, but there’s every reason to believe a player like Miller would be in prime position to succeed under the tutelage of Erik Spoelstra.
The Pelicans might have the luxury of competing for a championship and selecting top-10 on draft night thanks to the Anthony Davis trade. If this does come to pass, it’s hard to imagine a better fit than Anthony Black. The Pelicans already have multiple star creators and high-level defenders: Black is the string that can tie everything together.
That’s mild hyperbole, but connective tissue guys like Black are what the Pelicans “need” on a roster littered with elite scorers and specialized role players. Black is a tremendous passer and playmaker who doesn’t need to dominate touches to impact winning. He’s swift and precise in his decision-making, all while providing size and versatility on the defensive end at 6-foot-6.
You will often hear Black labeled as a “point guard” or “comboguard” of sorts, and that’s true: he’s a tremendous passer who can help lead the offense. But he should be thought of more in the Lonzo Ball lane than the Chris Paul lane (strictly in terms of archetype, not caliber of player). He doesn’t have the burst or creativity to create his own shot consistently, but he’s constantly spreading the wealth and making the right play. His 3-point efficiency is in a good spot, but moving forward he will need to focus on increasing the volume.
The Pelicans select Black here for many of the same reasons that led them to select Dyson Daniels in the 2022 lottery. And guess what: you can’t really have too many players like that. Both Black and Daniels have enough size and defensive flexibility to play with each other and alongside New Orleans’ other cornerstone guards, CJ McCollum and Jose Alvarado.
A lot of OKC’s core players are, on some level, creators. Josh Giddey and Jalen Williams both need touches. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is maybe the best iso scorer in basketball right now. He needs touches. Even Lu Dort does most of his damage driving the lane and attacking off the bounce. What OKC needs now is play finishers.
Chet Holmgren is an excellent play finisher who will fit right in with the aforementioned group, but he too will need touches as his star expands. And thus, Jarace Walker enters the conversation. A monster athlete and with megawatt potential on the defensive end, Walker can contribute with relentless hustle and energy while the rest of OKC’s core generates offense.
That is the main appeal, at least. Pairing Walker with Holmgren in the frontcourt, OKC would have the foundation of a top-10 defense for years to come. Holmgren is lean and mobile in the lane, swatting everything within arm’s reach. Walker is built like a truck, with the lateral quickness to switch onto guards and the beef to stonewall bigs in the paint. He complements Holmgren quite well in that respect.
Offensively, there’s plenty to get excited about too. Walker isn’t just a run-and-jump guy. He’s hitting 36.7 percent of his 3s on the season. He can rumble downhill and score on straight-line drives. He even flashes some nifty passing upside. OKC would need him to focus primarily on spot-up jumpers and cuts to the rim, but there’s upside for more. This would be a match made in basketball heaven.
The Spurs have stockpiled quality wings: Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, and Jeremy Sochan all look like long-term starters. Now it’s time to add the point guard of the future in Cason Wallace, a crafty and well-rounded playmaker who would fit right in with the coaching style of Gregg Popovich.
Wallace joins a long line of extra-coachable Kentucky guards destined for NBA success. It starts with defense. At 6-foot-3, Wallace has the length and intensity to bottle up ball-handlers on the perimeter. He makes the small efforts to win games, laying his body on the line and digging in defensively every night. He will rack up deflections and be a constant thorn in the side of opposing playmakers.
A good (if not great) athlete, Wallace brings plenty of talent to the offensive end as well. He consistently gets downhill and collapses the defense, with a varied in-between game and plenty of pull-up shooting touch to fall back on. He’s not the most explosive finisher at the rim, but his floater makes up for it. He’s also shooting 51.6 percent from 3, a number that should make NBA scouts salivate.
It would be fair to suggest that Wallace lacks the imminent star potential of your prototypical top-10 point guard. He’s not the flashiest athlete or the most impressive shot-maker on the board. What Wallace does have, however, is an efficient approach that elevates those around him and frequently yields positive results on both ends of the court. His high floor should appeal to a franchise like San Antonio.
Kevin Porter Jr. brings compelling talent to the point guard position, but I’m still not convinced it will amount to winning basketball in the future. And thus, Houston takes the best player available: another guard, Nick Smith Jr., to develop in tandem with Jalen Green on the perimeter.
And what a fit that would be. Smith and Green form a symbiotic pair on paper, each one elevating the other by collapsing the defense and setting the offense in motion. Smith needs to get more consistent from 3-point range, but there are positive indicators aplenty on that front. He displays insane touch around the basket and he should have no trouble shooting a high percentage on a variety of shot types at the next level.
Stylistically and aesthetically, Smith is a great counter to Green. The latter is the butcher’s knife, slicing through the defense quick and clean with an explosive first step. Smith offers more of a serrated edge: he doesn’t have the same quick-twitch athleticism, but he changes speeds on a dime and can rip the defense apart with creative dribble moves and counter moves.
We haven’t seen much of Smith yet at Arkansas because of injury, but the early signs are positive. He’s one of the most bankable offensive playmakers in the draft, with more than enough skill and craft to quell concerns about his lack of explosiveness.
With Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey cemented as the backcourt of the future, Detroit moves to sure up their wing rotation with Cam Whitmore. One of the youngest players in the draft, Whitmore’s powerful athleticism and budding two-way skill set should hold plenty of appeal for a team like the Pistons.
Whitmore missed the first chunk of the season with a thumb injury, but he has been stellar since his return. The sample size is small, but he has been an absolute star for an older Villanova team. Mixing brawny drives to the hoop with a smooth 3-point shot and ample off-ball effectiveness, Whitmore looks like a ready-made NBA contributor with star upside.
He isn’t the most inventive self-creator on the board, but Whitmore’s strength allows him to punish smaller defenders at the rim. Even NBA athletes will struggle to match his physicality once he’s moving downhill. If Whitmore’s current 3-point rate holds and he continues to make the small efforts — crashing the offensive glass, cutting backdoor, setting screens — it’s hard to imagine him falling much further than this in June.
Of course, defense also factors into Whitmore’s appeal. The Pistons have work to do on that side of the ball, but the on-paper versatility of Cade, Ivey, and Whitmore on the perimeter is tantalizing. Whitmore has the physical tools to guard 3-4 positions every night: quick enough to dance with guards on the perimeter and strong enough to battle forwards in the paint. He’s also quite prolific in passing lanes.
Chicago lucks into the top four, potentially a sign from the heavens of where this team is heading. Whether or not the Bulls fully “blow it up,” to borrow a phrase from Kevin O’Connor, it would behoove the team to invest heavily in the future. DeMar DeRozan is on the wrong side of 30 and Zach LaVine’s lingering knee issues are clearly taking their toll.
Ausar Thompson would bring immediate star potential to the wing. While not quite as highly touted as his twin brother Amen, the flashes of brilliance have been frequent for the 19-year-old from Overtime Elite. He won’t grace the prime-time ESPN television slots every week like some of his collegiate counterparts in this draft, but Thompson will have NBA scouts utterly enrapt all season.
At 6-foot-7, Thompson is one of the best athletes on the board. He brings size, quickness, and explosiveness to the wing, torching defenses on straight-line drives and flashing nutty potential on the defensive end. He possesses good instincts for such a young player, and while it’s his brother who’s more frequently in charge of ball-handling duties, Ausar has the skill and maneuverability to create off the dribble too.
He will need to iron out his 3-point shot and prove he can consistently defend at a high level, but there’s every reason to believe Thompson will be an immediate two-way contributor at the next level. The NBA is a wing’s league, and there’s too much blatant potential for the Bulls to pass him up at No. 4.
Amen Thompson, twin brother of the aforementioned Ausar, clocks in at No. 2 on our big board. He’s a similarly impressive athlete, standing 6-foot-7 with a 6-foot-10 wingspan and trampoline springs built into his knees. Thompson also happens to be the most impressive passer on the board, a brilliant on-the-move thinker who can leverage his gravity attacking the rim to create for teammates.
The Hornets obviously have a point guard and lead ball-handler already in LaMelo Ball. But, why not two? It’s generally good to have multiple ball-handlers who can compromise the defense and get others involved. Thompson is a nice complement to LaMelo too: a much more explosive driver and finisher who plays a slightly more controlled style.
There’s also the matter of defense: Thompson projects as a successful multi-positional defender who can contain elite guards at the point of attack. While LaMelo brings a ton of interesting tools to the defensive end, his effort tends to fluctuate and he’s not an on-ball stopper.
The cross-section of fit and entertainment value is quite compelling. Thompson and LaMelo would just be plain fun to watch: Ball throwing sick passes and Thompson channeling his inner gymnast at the rim. Terry Rozier is a complicating factor but he’s not a player who should dissuade Charlotte from taking a guard of Thompson’s caliber on draft night, especially when him and Ball have more than enough size to compensate for Rozier’s slender frame.
The Magic embrace conventional wisdom and make Scoot Henderson the follow-up to (spoiler alert) at No. 1. My personal instinct would be to heavily consider Amen Thompson here — and Orlando probably would — but Scoot’s proven, dynamic three-level scoring makes him a more natural fit on paper.
Any concerns about Henderson’s size (6-foot-2) are negated by his pterodactyl wingspan (6-foot-9) and impressive leaping ability. The Magic know all about length and versatility, so Henderson would fit right in. He competes hard on defense and, for all the guard depth and malleable playmakers in Orlando’s rotation, they’re still in need of a lead guard who can comfortably set the table without compromising the offense in one way or another.
Unsurprisingly, Henderson has seen his role expand in year two with the G-League Ignite. He is scoring and creating prodigiously against professional competition, showcasing his twitchy handles, explosive finishing ability, and silk-smooth jump shot.
The Magic have three very talented point guards on the roster in Markelle Fultz, Cole Anthony, and Jalen Suggs. This particular draft-night outcome could force them to consider consolidation trades, but none of those players are good enough to take Scoot off the team’s board. He would immediately join Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner as one of the team’s foundational pieces.
The Wizards strike gold in the form of Victor Wembanyama, forming what has the potential to be the most comically long frontcourt in modern NBA history alongside Kristaps Porzingis. I’m not sure that entirely works on paper, but good luck getting off a shot in the paint with multiple 7-foot-3+ bigs lurking in the shadows.
It also gives Washington a sudden sense of direction, a level of purpose and potential the franchise has been lacking for quite some time. Bradley Beal has done everything in his power to keep the team semi-relevant, but the Wizards are stuck in no-man’s land right now. Wemby immediately transforms them into must-watch television and, sooner than later, a potential contender.
Some of the expectations being pegged on Wembanyama might be too high. He’s being tossed around in the same conversation as LeBron James. Those references aren’t entirely off base, but such expectations generally mean that fans and pundits alike will have next to no patience. If Wemby struggles out of the gates, it will be a deluge of panic and criticism, rather than a more reasonable wait-and-see attitude.
That being said, it’s difficult to imagine Wembanyama not succeeding straight away. He has the potential to win multiple Defensive Player of the Year awards while being Washington’s go-to option offensively. His movement shooting and ability to navigate tight spaces off the bounce, at his size, is unheard of. He continues to unveil new skills every game it feels like. The Frenchman is only just beginning to scratch the surface of his sky-high potential.