The Atlanta Braves opted not to sign free-agent shortstop Dansby Swanson, who instead took his talents to Chicago. Vaughn Grissom will take the reins instead.
The decision not to bring back Dansby Swanson at his preferred price point wasn’t necessarily about ‘choosing’ Vaughn Grissom, as this headline suggests, but more about upholding the Braves way of doing things.
As long as Alex Anthopoulos is in the Atlanta front office, this team will believe in the sum of its parts. Swanson would have cost a lot of money, and in similar fashion to Freddie Freeman last offseason, the Braves would rather spend that capital on a litany of players than one superstar.
Grissom is a talented player, however. At 21 years old, Grissom is set to take over at shortstop, and was sent to New Orleans this offseason to train with Ron Washington. The Braves assistant coach came away impressed.
“I mean, we’re covering everything. He’s doing a tremendous job. He’s gonna be ready to go by the time we get to spring training in February,” Washington said, per The Athletic (subscription required).
It was always a risk for Anthopoulos to choose a 21-year-old kid to take over for Swanson, a seasoned veteran. Still, he has his reasons.
Vaughn Grissom provides more financial flexibility
For the Braves, financial flexibility is everything.
Atlanta prefers to sign its young stars pre-arbitration. It’s what they did with Ronald Acuña, Ozzie Albies and more recently Michael Harris II. It’s what they very well may do with Grissom, as well, should he succeed at the MLB level.
The Braves do plan on spending that money at some point, and with Max Fried’s free agency coming up, there’s no better time to empty their pockets. Atlanta traded for Sean Murphy this offseason, as well, meaning they will eventually have to sign him to a long-term extension, should they wish to keep one of the best catchers in all of baseball in the ATL.
There are benefits to letting Swanson walk, even if it means losing a vital locker room presence.
Age is an advantage for Braves, Vaughn Grissom
Dansby Swanson is 28 years old, meaning the Cubs will be paying him until he’s 35. That’s not a contract the Braves wanted to sign up for, and it’s understandable.
While Swanson did have a breakout season in 2022, it was his first All-Star campaign, and arguably his only above-average offensive season…ever? The advanced statistics don’t recommend a long-term, high AAV contract for Dansby. Yet, the Cubs gave him one anyway after missing out on several of the top-tier shortstops in free agency.
Swanson has only had one above-average full-season year with the bat -- 115 OPS+ in 2022 -- but some of the underlying metrics do show a player who has learned how to square up the ball in meaningful ways. pic.twitter.com/rbCxi5w8e5
— Mike Petriello (@mike_petriello) December 17, 2022
Assuming Grissom can tap into some of that athleticism, the drop-off from a guy like Swanson likely won’t be as severe as some fans are expecting from the jump. This is especially true if the Braves allow Grissom to develop, possibly even starting him in a platoon role with Orlando Arcia.
Grissom could blossom into the player AA envisions him to be, but at 21 years old, he has plenty of time to get there. That’s the benefit of going younger. Atlanta has a capable core of veterans around Grissom.
As the team matures and gets better, so will a player like Grissom.
Vaughn Grissom’s potential is too great to ignore
2022 was likely an anomaly offensively for Dansby Swanson. The advanced metrics suggest as much. While Swanson is a winning player, he is not worth $177 million, even in this market, for a competitive team like the Braves.
The Cubs are trying to acquire talent. Atlanta already possesses it.
Grissom is just one of a number of answers at the position for the Braves. He is by far the most likely to succeed.
In the 41 games Grissom played last season, he had a 121 wRC+. This was higher than Swanson, albeit in a smaller sample size. Yet, FanGraphs projects this to continue, and assumes Grissom will finish next season with a 111 wRC+.
If FanGraphs is proven correct, then Grissom could very well finish the 2023 campaign with better offensive numbers than Swanson. Atlanta should expect to take a step back on the basepaths and defensively, as those are two department Swanson excelled at. Grissom is also still learning the nuances of the position.
Still, the fact Grissom is projected to outplay Swanson in any department, let alone at the plate, makes this decision worthwhile for the Braves. It may not be a seamless Carlos-Correa-to-Jeremy-Peña transition as the Astros witnessed last season, but Atlanta would take half of that.