Four bold San Diego Padres predictions for the upcoming season including individual performances and where they finish in the NL West.
The San Diego Padres are going for it. What’s the “it?” It’s a championship.
Pulling off the trade for Juan Soto last summer pushed the Padres into a spot where they have no other option other than to go all in for the 2023 season. They’ve added Xander Bogaerts. Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove have extensions to keep them in town, too. Manny Machado’s uncertain future might be a minor distraction, but it can easily be spun as the star third baseman having a career year ahead of his free agency following an opt out.
The Padres have more than a wild card and a loss in the NLCS in their 2023 playbook. What’s in store for this ball club? Let’s make some bold predictions.
1) Bold Padres prediction: Juan Soto wins the NL MVP
Juan Soto hasn’t won an MVP yet. The runner-up in 2021 back when he was with the Washington Nationals, Soto didn’t even enter the conversation in 2022. It was a down year with both the Nationals and Padres. He finished the season batting .242/.401/.452. All numbers were either career lows or tied with his previous bottom.
Playing on the Padres for a full year and having the time to get accustomed to the situation will pay off. Soto was worse with San Diego than Washington last season. There is nothing to suggest he’ll continue to underachieve in 2022. In fact, baseball fans will be pleasantly reminded of just how amazing he is.
At 24, Soto’s prime may still be in the future. A true star of the game, he has the power, plate discipline, and winning team check marks to help him win the 2023 National League MVP.
Pitchers won’t be able to pitch around Soto all season like they could when he was with the Nationals. He’s in a dangerous lineup. An MVP season feels inevitable.
2) Bold Padres prediction: Manny Machado has a “down” year
On the topic of MVPs, Manny Machado almost won one last year. He finished behind only St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt. Settling for second-place should add extra motivation for Machado. Unfortunately, lesser results could always get in the way.
What could be considered “down” for Machado is still very good for most players. He has consistently hit for power since joining the Padres. He has, however, been less brilliant in other areas.
Matching last year’s numbers will be a tough challenge for Machado. He can do it. There’s nothing other than his uptick in strikeouts that immediately stands out as a reason for why he could struggle a bit more in 2023.
Fanning 133 times last year in 644 plate appearances gave him a career-worst strikeout rate of 20.7%. His hard hit percentage was down, too, from 52.3% the year prior to 49%. Is this the sign of a season-long slump? Hardly.
Instead, this prediction for this star is more about what he has done in the past. His first year with the Padres included a .256/.334/.462 slash line with 32 home runs and 85 RBI. Something more like this than what he gave the team in 2022 could happen. It’s hard to imagine him being this brilliant. Machado has played a lot of baseball since 2015. With 150+ games in each full season since and all 60 games in 2020, he may begin to feel the grind of the long season in his bones a little more.
3) Padres finish the year with a closer-by-committee and it works
Can the Padres trust Josh Hader? Regularly implosive, this prediction doesn’t have him staying as the closer. Instead, the Padres end the year with a closer-by-committee.
Hader was 1-1 with a 7.31 ERA for the Padres in 19 appearances. He pitched 16 regular season innings for them in what was a rollercoaster experience. Hader was good in the postseason. The regular season woes that led the Milwaukee Brewers to trade him in the first place will come back to hurt the Padres a little too much at times.
Luckily, the Padres have a strong and somewhat underrated bullpen. Robert Suarez and Luis Garcia are two of their better arms. A healthy Drew Pomeranz could give them late-inning appearances as well. So could Seth Lugo whose spot in the rotation might not be so certain after the club signed Michael Wacha.
We can expect the Padres to add yet another high-leverage reliever into their bullpen around the trade deadline. It won’t be someone at the same level as Hader. With the hard-throwing lefty set to hit free agency after the 2023 campaign, San Diego may already want to start looking at replacements.
Hader should be able to put together a better season for the Padres. It still won’t be enough to completely trust him. Look for them to invest in the bullpen heavily and land the best arm they can afford.
4) Padres overtake the Dodgers and win the NL West
The prediction everyone wants to know: how far do they go? This year, they pass the Los Angeles Dodgers in the standings. The Dodgers just didn’t do all that much this offseason to make anyone think they’re clearly better than the Padres. It’s going to come back and hurt LA. It’s going to do wonders for the Padres.
There was a 22-game difference between San Diego and Los Angeles last year. It’s a lot of ground to make up. The Padres haven’t won a division since 2006. After getting eliminated in the NLDS, they didn’t even make it back to the postseason until 2020.
This year’s Padres team has a different feel than even last season. The rotation was what made the Padres look good on Opening Day 2022. Amazingly, it wasn’t the strength it was meant to be.
After a full offseason to prepare, San Diego now has a much better-balanced roster. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have picked up scraps like Noah Syndergaard and David Peralta.
A battle is about to take place in the National League West this year. It’s a two-team race between the reigning champion Dodgers and the Padres that eliminated them in the playoffs. This season, they’ll flip positions. San Diego will take the division. The Dodgers will settle with a road trip to open their playoff march.