NHL best bets today (Lightning too much for Red Wings to handle)

Our bad luck in the NHL continued last night, as Craig Anderson (??) stopped 53 shots in a Sabres 3-1 upset over the Panthers.

All we can do is move on to today’s action and hope our luck turns around. After all, Gamblor giveth, Gamblor taketh away.

Let’s jump into my four best bet for Saturday’s loaded slate.

NHL best bets record season-to-date

  • 181-157-4 (+11.23 units)

NHL best bets today

  • Penguins -155 vs. Blues
  • Lightning -155 vs. Red Wings
  • Flames +110 vs. Avalanche
  • Stars/Golden Knights UNDER 6 (-115)

Penguins -155 vs. Blues

The Penguins four-game losing streak comes to an end today. Their defense has been absolutely atrocious lately, allowing 3.94 goals per game over their last 10, but now they take on a Blues team that has a goals scored per game mark of 2.58 and an expected goals for of 2.6 over the same stretch of games.

The Blues have also been terrible defensively, allowing 3.96 goals over their last 10.

So, we have two terrible defensive teams but one team with a massive offensive advantage. Pittsburgh is fifth in the NHL in expected goals for over the past few weeks. I’ll back them as road favorites to break this losing streak.

Lightning -155 vs. Red Wings

The Red Wings have been hot lately, going 7-3 in their last 10 games, but I don’t think their statistics hold up. For example, they’re 31st in the NHL in CORSI% (measures all types of shots for and against) over that stretch, and an average expected goal differential of -0.8 per 60 minutes.

Now, they take on a Lightning team that’s third in CORSI% over their last 10, while playing some of the best hockey they’ve played this season. Tampa Bay should be a bigger favorite than -155.

Flames +110 vs. Avalanche

I’m just can’t stop myself from betting on the Calgary Flames. I’m convinced they’re the best team in the Western Conference, despite their subpar record. Over their last 10 games, they lead the NHL in CORSI% and third in expected goals percentage.

Unfortunately, their goaltending has been abysmal, but I can look past that in hopes they can pull off the upset in Colorado. The Avs have a CORSi% of just 48.92% over their last 10 games, which ranks 19th in the NHL.

Stars/Golden Knights UNDER 6 (-115)

This is a pretty straight forward bet in my opinion. These are two of the best defensive teams in the NHL, so let’s just take the UNDER.

Over their last 10 games, they’re first and fourth in expected goals against, while also ranking first and third in high-danger scoring chances allowed.

Jump on the UNDER 6 before this total moves to 5.5, which it just may do before puck drop tonight.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.