Paolo Banchero took an early lead in the Rookie of the Year race but is he still in the top spot after an absolutely brutal shooting slump?
Paolo Banchero was the No. 1 pick in the 2022 NBA Draft and pretty much put himself at the top of the Rookie of the Year rankings from opening night on. But he’s also in the midst of a terrible shooting slump, making just a single 3-pointer in the entire month of February, and several other rookies who started slowly have been coming on strong.
Who is leading the NBA Rookie of the Year race as the playoffs approach?
5. Keegan Murray — Sacramento Kings
Murray hasn’t been the best rookie in the league this season but he’s probably been the most consistent of the high-end performers. He played 32 minutes and scored 19 points in the Kings’ second game of the season and has basically been a fixture in the starting rotation ever since.
Murray is averaging 12.1 points, 4.6 rebounds and 1.2 assists per game, hitting 41.7 percent of his catch-and-shoot 3s. Having his floor spacing from the 4 position has helped open the floor for Domantas Sabonis, De’Aaron Fox and Kevin Huerter and really elevated the Kings’ offense. He’s still just scratching the surface of what he can do and has a lot of untapped versatility and upside for the Kings top tap over the next few seasons. But he’s already a key starter on a team that’s currently top-three in the Western Conference. The Kings couldn’t have asked for much more than that from his rookie season.
4. Jalen Williams — Oklahoma City Thunder
It took a few weeks for Williams to get his footing with the Thunder and against NBA competition but he’s really settled in as a key contributor for Oklahoma City. He entered the starting lineup for good on Dec. 12 and since then he hasn’t missed a game, averaging 13.9 points, 4.8 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 1.7 steals, shooting 50.5 percent from the floor and 34.3 percent from beyond the arc.
Williams adds a ton as a complementary ball-handler, sharing initiation responsibilities with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey. Jaden Ivery and Paolo Banchero are the only rookies who have driven more often and while he passes on a relatively high percentage of his drives he’s also a fantastic finisher — shooting 52.2 percent on drives, about the same as Anthony Edwards, Zach LaVine or Devin Booker.
He still leaves a lot to be desired as a shooter, both on catch-and-shoot attempts and off the dribble but his versatility at both ends could make him a valuable rotation piece for years to come.
3. Jaden Ivey — Detroit Pistons
Ivey has had the opportunity to work as a primary initiator a lot more than the Pistons might have planned this season, because of the injury to Cade Cunningham. The increased reps could be extremely valuable down the road as he settles back into a complementary creator role, but you can also see the growth as the season has gone along.
Since the beginning of January, Ivey is averaging 5.7 assists per game and has kept his turnovers relatively steady while taking on more as a facilitator. He’s also hit 36.8 percent of his 3s over the same stretch, another sign of his increasing comfort. Ivey leads all rookies in drives per game for the season and only Dyson Daniels has recorded an assist on a higher percentage of his drives.
Ivey has, of course, impressed in all the expected ways — explosive athleticism, thunderous open-court finishes and tough, physical defense. But it’s his improvement in skill, awareness and implementation of his incredible physical tools that should have the Pistons most excited.
2. Bennedict Mathurin — Indiana Pacers
Mathurin leapt into the Rookie of the Year race early and hasn’t really relinquished his hold on the No. 2 spot, despite some regression in his shooting numbers. He was shooting 40.3 percent from beyond the arc through the end of November but has hit just 25.8 percent since with just two games of three or more makes.
But even with that regression, he’s been incredibly productive, averaging 17.1 points, 4.1 rebounds and 1.4 assists per game off the Pacers’ bench. A big reason for his high scoring totals, and relative efficiency despite the 3-point drop-off, has been his ability to get to the line. He’s averaging 9.7 free-throw attempts per 100 possessions and shooting 83 percent from the stripe. That ability to get into traffic and draw contact gives him a reliable way to contribute on offense even as the rest of his package is developing.
He still has a long way to go at the defensive end of the floor but he competes at that end and there’s every reason to think he can continue to improve. The Pacers were excited about nabbing Mathurin in the draft but it’s probably safe to say he’s blown past their expectations this year.
1. Paolo Banchero — Orlando Magic
Paolo Banchero’s shooting has really tailed off as the season has gone along but he’s still been the best and most productive rookie in the league by a decent margin. Banchero went an abysmal 1-of-33 from beyond the arc in February, dropping his season-long 3-point percentage to 27.4. But even in that horrific stretch, there were some positive signs — like him hitting a relatively robust 43.4 percent of his pull-up 2-pointers.
It would be nice if Banchero could be a consistent outside threat but he’s still been a force inside this season. He’s averaging 19.9 points, 6.6 rebounds and 3.6 assists per game, shooting 69 percent around the basket. No rookie averages more points per game on drives or draws fouls on a higher percentage of their drives.
There is still so much upside to be had in his game, and it’s not just about development as a shooter. Even at 3.6 assists per game, it’s fair to say he’s just scratching the surface of his potential as a passer and facilitator. He passes on an extremely low 26.2 percent of his drives and his teammates have made just 30.3 percent of their 3s after a pass from Banchero. Put better shooters around him, let him get more comfortable with the ball in his hands and he could easily be a primary hub.
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