Teams have given out nearly $3 billion in contracts in NFL free agency. These are 5 of the riskiest moves made this offseason.
This free agency pool has been filled with household NFL names we have become familiar with, yet somehow those always feel like the riskiest signings. Additionally, we also saw a lot of players emerge and establish themselves just in time for a big payday.
There were several free-agency moves that left us with more questions than answers. Per Sportrac, this free agency period has reached nearly $3B in spending.
With that being said, we must assess how the free agency market played out. Let’s preface this post by stating that the players on this list may not be bad signings. But they all come with a significant amount of risk.
These are the riskiest moves of NFL free agency that could backfire.
5. Dre’Mont Jones to the Seahawks
The Seahawks were not shy about using their cap space during free agency. In addition to Geno Smith’s big contract extension, they made Dre’Mont Jones one of the highest-paid defensive ends in the NFL.
Jones’ contract is worth up to $51 million with $23 million in guaranteed money. He is making just slightly more than Chandler Jones and a fraction less than Cameron Jordan. Those are two of the most well-decorated pass rushers in the NFL, having multiple Pro Bowl and AP All-Pro team selections on their resumes.
While the Seahawks are bringing in Jones to wreak havoc in the trenches, his ability to defend against the run leaves a lot to be desired. Dre’Mont Jones has posted a 50.9 run defense grade or lower from PFF in three of his first four seasons in the NFL.
Jones had exceeded 63 percent of his available defensive snaps taken for games in which he appeared prior to last season (81 percent). Whether it be coincidentally or not, he ended last season on IR due to a hip injury. Seattle is paying Jones to be a full-time NFL player who is expected to make an instant impact on the defensive side of the ball.
While he has shown glimpses, it remains to be seen if he can live up to the expectation the Seahawks have set with this contract.
4. Jawaan Taylor to the Chiefs
If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em.
After losing to the Chiefs in the AFC Divisional Round this past postseason, Jawaan Taylor decided to do just that when he chose to sign a four-year contract with the Chiefs.
Taylor’s contract is worth up to $80 million, with $60 million guaranteed. which would make him the second-highest-paid right tackle in the NFL by AAV. However, it has been reported that he will be playing left tackle for the Chiefs, making the contract slightly more team-friendly.
His success in Jacksonville came from the right tackle position, The Chiefs are betting on a leap of faith from Taylor. It is a lot of money to commit to a player who has proven to be better suited on the right side of the O-line because his pass protection leaves much to be desired.
Simultaneously, the Chiefs made the decision to move on from Orlando Brown. Orlando Brown received $4 million less per year than Taylor in free agency to play left tackle for the Chiefs’ main competitor in the AFC.
As long as Taylor does his part to keep Patrick Mahomes upright and helps them get past the Bengals in the playoffs again, the difference in contract value between these two will not matter.
However, if Joe Burrow and the Bengals get their revenge next season, these two contracts will be widely debated. It is undoubtedly a risky move by the reigning Super Bowl Champions to allow their biggest threat at repeating to sign a key cog of their O-line.
Not to mention, they are now paying his replacement even more money to play a position he has not been comfortable with to date.
3. Jessie Bates to the Falcons
There is no denying Jessie Bates’ talent. He’s a ball hawk who has routinely been among the NFL’s best safeties since he was drafted in 2018.
Bates played a large role in the Bengal’s most recent Super Bowl appearance. After playing last season on the franchise tag last season, the stud safety decided to test the free agency market. This decision proved to pay off rather quickly, as the Falcons signed him to a monster deal.
The Falcons got their guy, but it came at a steep cost. They have now made him the highest-paid safety in 2023, and by a wide margin at that. It is a lot of money to allocate to a position that a lot of teams deem replaceable. The Bengals have embodied the mindset of devaluing the safety position, allowing both of their starting safeties from 2022 to leave in free agency.
Again, Bates is a remarkable player who will provide a boost to the Atlanta secondary. However, the Falcons are far from any sort of contention and/or relevancy, even in a wide-open NFC South division. The Falcons have so many other needs on both sides of the ball. They need to address their wide receiver room as well as both their offensive and defensive lines.
With that being said, it is strange to see them commit such a hefty amount of money to the safety position. Kudos to Jessie Bates for getting the money he deserved, but it would not be a shock to see this move backfire for the Falcons.
2. Dalvin Tomlinson to the Browns
A former second-round pick out of Alabama, Tomlinson has made a name for himself in the league as one of the better run stuffers in the NFL. Tomlinson figures to give Myles Garrett some much-needed help on the defensive line.
After signing a four-year deal worth up to $57 million (with $27.5 million guaranteed), Tomlinson is now the 10th highest-paid defensive tackle in the NFL by average annual value. The Browns already have $455 million in contract value (no, that is not a typo), committed to the likes of Deshaun Watson, Myles Garrett, and Amari Cooper.
He has typically buttered his bread with his ability to defend against the run, but Tomlinson has struggled when it comes to getting to the quarterback. He posted just 2.5 sacks last year and 13 in his career. Additionally, the big nose tackle missed four games last season due to a calf injury, it was the first time in his career he’s sat out any NFL game.
Playing a physically demanding position in the NFL, this is a noteworthy trend that we must pay attention to as Tomlinson gets older. A one-dimensional player and approaching the wrong side 30, this signing could come back to haunt the Browns.
1. Seahawks re-sign Geno Smith
Geno Smith finally wrote back.
Smith was one of several quarterbacks to be paid this offseason (and we may even see a few more get contracts). Although, he is not like the other signal-callers who were given large contracts during NFL free agency. The Seahawks gave Smith a three-year contract extension worth up to $75 million, with $40 million in guaranteed money.
Compared to the other contracts given out to Derek Carr, Daniel Jones and Jimmy Garoppolo, Smith’s contract may not seem like anything other than standard protocol after his career year. However, Carr and Garoppolo have both established themselves as known commodities in this league with proven track records and postseason appearances to show for it.
Daniel Jones has a first-round draft pedigree while coming off a career season after finally having a head coach and front office who put him in a position to succeed. There was no choice but to pay Jones to see if they can continue to build off of last season. Frankly, that is the cost of doing business when it comes to the quarterback market in the NFL.
Before last season, Geno Smith was a career backup in the NFL who had never proven he could lead a franchise. He had the luxury of throwing to arguably the best wide receiver duo in the NFL in Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf. Head coach Pete Carroll has also built a Hall-of-Fame coaching resume in large part because of his ability to get the most out of his quarterbacks.
The Seahawks had a way out of handing Geno Smith this kind of money, but instead, they doubled down and put their faith in the 32-year-old signal-caller. Seattle has the fifth overall selection in the upcoming NFL Draft. Even after extending Geno Smith, they have met with each of the top four-ranked quarterback prospects.
If they feel they need to move into the top-four to land one of the top quarterback prospects, they have the additional draft capital to do so. Selecting a young quarterback with the No. 5 pick and not re-signing Smith would’ve given the Seahawks more financial flexibility to address other areas of need.
Not to mention, if they wanted to spend big on a quarterback, there is a 26-year-old former unanimous NFL MVP in Baltimore who seems to be itching for a fresh start with a new franchise.
After Smith experienced a breakthrough season, it is fair to wonder whether the Seahawks would’ve been wise to let him walk in free agency.