The NCAA Tournament is done and so is the NBA regular season, setting the stage for an exciting summer of NBA Draft chatter.
The end of the season — both collegiate and professional — is a milestone in every NBA Draft cycle. The lottery odds are set, but the ping pong balls have yet to dish out their brutal, unforgiving verdict. Every lottery team, 1-14, has felt a faint glimmer of hope. The kind of hope only a 7-foot-5 Frenchman hitting one-legged fadeaways can inspire.
A diverse array of teams in different stages of development comprise this year’s lottery. Young teams like Orlando and Oklahoma City are a stone’s throw away from playoff basketball. Older teams like Washington and Portland desperately need to recalibrate. And then, of course, there are the committed bottom-dwellers, such as Houston and San Antonio. And, lest we forget, the abject disappointments — Dallas and Toronto.
How the ping pong balls fall could determine the course of NBA history. This is a particularly talented draft class, especially at the top. While attention has understandably been focused on Victor Wembanyama, there are several potential stars and high-level contributors littered throughout the top 14.
Who gets picked in the first round of our 2023 NBA Mock Draft?
As is tradition, we simulated the lottery via Tankathon — and thankfully, the fake lottery gods blessed us with a juicy outcome. It’s worth remembering that the worst teams in the NBA only have a 14 percent chance of getting the No. 1 pick, which are not great odds. Anything can happen.
For insight on the top 60 prospects in this year’s class, you can read our latest big board here. This mock draft will take into account team fit as well as personal evaluation of each prospect, but we have also reached the point where prediction comes into play on some level. It’s far too early to predict with any real certainty, but we can use a team’s draft history and current set of needs — combined with the general buzz around prospects in the draft community — to make an educated guess about who’s rising and who certain teams might have interest in.
The Clippers close out the first round with a strong value pick. Brandin Podziemski flew under the radar at small-time Santa Clara, but his crafty shot creation and defensive toughness give him a clear path to NBA utility.
Nikola Durisic began the season as a potential lottery pick before seeing his stock drop due to several factors, injury-related and otherwise. He’s still a talented 6-foot-9 playmaker with untapped two-way potential. The Pacers have three first-round picks and can afford an upside swing.
Kris Murray brings size and shooting to the perimeter, a combination that never goes out of style. His breakout season wasn’t without bumps in the road, but teams clearly liked his brother Keegan and could see a similar path to NBA relevance for the second twin.
The Hornets grab a winning player in Colby Jones, who did a little bit of everything at Xavier. He can spray 3s, he can defend multiple positions, and he’s a perceptive passer who projects as a snug-fitting role player on the wing next to an offensive hub like LaMelo Ball.
Maxwell Lewis is a long, shifty wing who struggled at times under the heavy offensive burden thrust upon him at Pepperdine. He would be able to streamline his duties with Indiana, focusing on catch-and-shoot 3s and attacking closeouts. Tyrese Haliburton is the ideal teammate for just about anyone looking to maximize their offensive situation.
The Grizzlies swing on Jalen Hood-Schifino, who tumbles a bit further than expected due to concerns about his efficiency at the rim. While Hood-Schifino’s lack of elite burst and reliance on difficult in-between shots will give some teams pause, there’s undeniable upside in his crafty handles and remarkable touch.
The Kings were the best offense in the NBA and a bottom-five defense. No rookie is going to solve that problem entirely, but Rayan Rupert boasts a 7-foot-3 wingspan and one of the most impressive defensive acumens in the draft. He gets after it on the perimeter and will force turnovers to feed Sacramento’s elite transition offense.
Dereck Lively improved drastically over the course of the season at Duke. He finished strong in Duke’s brief NCAA Tournament run, showcasing impressive defensive awareness and all the athletic tools that had many pegging him as a top-10 prospect before the season. Portland desperately needs to find their next starting center with Jusuf Nurkic on a sharp decline.
Bilal Coulibaly is getting a lot of buzz despite operating in the rather large shadow of Victor Wembanyama for Metropolitans 92. He’s one of the youngest players in the draft and an undeniable athlete. His bursty athleticism and highlight-reel defense warrant the investment from Brooklyn.
Brice Sensabaugh set nets aflame all season for Ohio State. The defensive concerns are legitimate and it’s fair to ask if all the contested jumpers will fall at the same rate in the NBA. But frankly, shot-makers of his caliber don’t come around too often and there’s reason to believe in the upside. Especially for the Nets, who could use some more firepower to lessen the scoring burden on Mikal Bridges.
The Warriors’ offseason could get complicated with the future of Draymond Green up in the air. The new CBA doesn’t seem to be doing them any favors and Green punching Jordan Poole in the wake of the latter’s big contract extension is still fresh in many minds. Either way, Noah Clowney makes sense as a versatile 6-foot-10 defender with untapped offensive potential. He’s one of the youngest players on the board.
Andre Jackson is one of the most unique prospects on the board, a brilliant basketball thinker who can influence winning without making a ton of shots. Houston already has offensive cornerstones in Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun, plus James Harden might soon be making his triumphant return. Jackson can help tie it all together with his fervent defense and high basketball I.Q.
Kobe Bufkin has seen his stock rise drastically in his sophomore season. He’s still quite young and he competes on both ends of the floor. Miami needs guard help with Kyle Lowry fading fast, and Bufkin has the kind of versatile skill set that can fit alongside and accentuate Miami’s star duo of Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo.
Jordan Hawkins was the primary beneficiary of March Madness, leading his team to the national title and cementing his place in the first round in most projections. It’s fair to be concerned about the lack of variety in his skill set offensively, but Hawkins is a blistering 3-point shooter who can fly around screens and thrive in NBA-style actions. It’s hard to imagine a better home for such a player than next to LeBron James.
GG Jackson was originally projected as a potential top pick in the 2024 draft before reclassifying to 2023 and joining South Carolina as a 17-year-old. In unsurprising news, his efficiency was in the gutter as he was asked to carry a significant offensive burden despite being less experienced than all his peers. Jackson’s statistical profile has justifiably left some wary, but he’s a 6-foot-8 athletic tank who can create his own looks off the dribble. Those players aren’t terribly common and he has more time than most to put the pieces together. The Jazz have three first-round picks and can afford the patient approach.
Dariq Whitehead struggled with injuries at Duke, never quite looking himself. He couldn’t get much elevation around the rim and the aggressive shot-making that defined his high school ascension was mostly absent. What he did do, however, was scorch the nets from 3-point range. The evident scalability of his skill set, plus the untapped potential of Whitehead at 100 percent health, makes him a potential steal for the Hawks just outside the lottery.
The Pelicans are right on the edge of something special. If Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram can put together a healthy campaign, simultaneously, there’s not much keeping New Orleans from home-court advantage in the playoffs. David Griffin has stockpiled more assets than any GM not named Sam Presti and the Pelicans’ roster is already littered with quality depth pieces.
And yet, here they are — in the lottery and caught in a wave of uncertainty due to Zion’s inability to put together that healthy season. It’s way too early for the Pelicans to jump ship on the current core, but it will be fascinating to see how they go about shaping the roster this summer. Are any major moves on the horizon, or will Griffin and the coaching staff simply bank on Zion eventually getting right?
Regardless of the direction NOLA takes, it’s hard to imagine Taylor Hendricks not fitting in. The 6-foot-9 freshman caught talent evaluators by surprise with his strong season at UCF. He began the year off draft boards, but it didn’t take long for Hendricks to crack the lottery conversation — or even the top 10, depending on who you ask.
An NBA-ready defender who can switch across positions and rack up deflections, Hendricks shouldn’t take long to crack the Pels’ rotation. The combined defensive activity of Hendricks and Herb Jones would be something to behold. On the offensive end, Hendricks is a prolific spot-up shooter who can space the floor for New Orleans’ star creators.
The Raptors’ disappointing season came to an unceremonious end in the play-in tournament. Now, a summer of change looms large on the horizon. Fred VanVleet is a free agent, OG Anunoby was the hottest name on the trade market from December through February, and even Pascal Siakam might be on the move before we know it.
Toronto has to change it up somehow. The current group just doesn’t have the competitive ceiling to justify sustained confidence, but they’re also too good to tank. The primary issue is roster imbalance, with not nearly enough shooting or shot creation on the perimeter to sustain a contending offense.
Cason Wallace doesn’t solve all of Toronto’s problems, but he’s a potential heir to the Fred VanVleet role. The Kentucky guard is probably more of a combo guard than VanVleet (so he can’t be the only guard the Raps go after), but he’s a generational perimeter defender who will set the tone with his intensity. There are natural limitations on most “defensive” guards who are 6-foot-3, but Wallace is a rare exception who plays much bigger than his size — in part due to his rangy 6-foot-8 wingspan.
On the offensive end, Wallace is a comfortable shooter who can toggle between on and off-ball duties depending on who he’s sharing the court with. His soft touch from everywhere on the floor suggests a high offensive ceiling, even if he’s not the most prolific self-creator at the moment.
Orlando gets this pick from Chicago as part of the Nikola Vucevic trade. With it, Orlando addresses one of the few glaring weaknesses in its young core: spacing. Paolo Banchero spent much of his rookie season struggling from 3-point range and Markelle Fultz, for all his mesmerizing forays into the paint, still doesn’t command much defensive attention on the perimeter.
Jett Howard is nothing if not an NBA shooter. At 6-foot-8, he also fits the Magic’s general emphasis on big, positionally versatile players. Howard has a lot of work to do defensively, but his offensive skill set would fit perfectly within Orlando’s current ecosystem. He can hit shots on the move or standing still, plus there’s reason to believe the son of former NBA All-Star Juwan Howard can develop into more than just a spacer.
The defense is a major concern, as Howard doesn’t move well enough in space to defend fleet-footed guards, nor does he possess the strength to battle stronger forwards in the post. Luckily the Magic have built up quite the reservoir of defensive talent; the overall malleability of the roster around him could help Howard survive — or at least give him time to improve without getting run off the floor every night.
Orlando is not far away from winning games and making a playoff push. That team was sneaky competent, bordering on good after the All-Star break. Paolo and Franz Wagner will take another leap, Fultz is starting to look more like the Fultz of old, and there are still some potential-laden wild cards like Jalen Suggs and Jonathan Isaac who could take off at any moment. Howard is a player who can contribute to a good team from day one.
Utah might have something in Talen Horton-Tucker and it’s unwise to discount Collin Sexton. That said, Utah’s backcourt is firmly in a transitional phase as the team tries to navigate its rebuild around Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler. Baylor’s Keyonte George, one of the most exhilarating freshmen in college basketball, is the pick.
It was not a perfect season for George. He shot below 38 percent from the field and caution is always warranted with 6-foot-4 (or under) scoring guards who don’t profile as lead ball-handlers. George feels like a swing prospect — the kind of player who is either going to vastly outperform his draft position or never quite live up to it.
The Jazz should be willing to take the gamble. Despite his unsavory efficiency numbers, George’s shot-making is hard to deny. He’s a talented manipulator, using hesitations and sudden shifts in momentum to keep his defender off balance. He can punish the defense with nifty touch shots and pull-ups, or he can put his head down and get to the rim, where regularly embraces contact. He’s not a point guard by trade, but George frequently locates open teammates on the move and there’s reason to believe his playmaking can progress over time.
He’s also a competitive defender who works to carry his weight on both sides of the ball. George doesn’t have elite measurements, but he’s built strong and he really digs in at the point of attack. It’s not hard to imagine a rapidly blossoming two-man game between George and Markkanen, with Kessler hanging around the rim as a vertical threat.
This might be the best possible landing spot for Nick Smith Jr. The Arkansas freshman lost a significant portion of his season to injury, but when he was on the court he did enough to reassure NBA teams of his long-term potential. In Smith, the Pacers see a prime opportunity to establish Tyrese Haliburton’s backcourt partner for the next decade.
Smith is one of the most gifted scorers on the board. He’s elusive and slippery — hard to stay in front of. While he lacks the elite athleticism of certain lottery-bound peers, Smith can get by on his quick first step and immeasurable craft. He has maybe the deepest bag of tricks of any ball-handler in the draft.
That said, Smith’s 3-point numbers were not great in his limited time on the court and he doesn’t have the playmaking acumen of a natural point guard. Not yet, at least. Thus, the great fit with Indiana. He gets to benefit from one of the league’s top set-up men in Haliburton. Smith thrives attacking off the catch and he’s a frequent off-ball mover. His touch around the rim and from mid-range makes it easy to project him as a good 3-point shooter long term. He would feast on cuts and relocation jumpers with Haliburton pulling the strings.
On the defensive end, Smith holds his own. He’s 6-foot-5 with a 6-foot-8 wingspan, providing frenzied activity on the perimeter. He should be able to handle the premier on-ball matchups while Haliburton floats in passing lanes and angles for steals. Meanwhile, the Pacers have one of the best defensive backstops on the planet in Myles Turner.
Washington has struggled in the aftermath of John Wall’s departure to field a competent backcourt around Bradley Beal. Monte Morris has been a serviceable stopgap, but he doesn’t really encourage much confidence in Washington as the kind of team that can do more than compete for the 8-seed.
Beal’s future is very much in question, no matter how frequently he reaffirms his loyalty to the franchise. Kristaps Porzingis is evidently lined up for a significant extension — one has certainly earned — but at some point, one has to imagine the Wizards will start to look toward the future.
Anthony Black is the perfect bridge from the present to whatever’s next. He’s an excellent fit next to Beal — the kind of dynamic slasher and selfless playmaker who can kick the offense into high gear. He’s big for his position (6-foot-7) and profiles as a potentially elite defensive guard, which could help mask Beal’s most prominent deficiencies.
Then, there’s the future. Black is already a mega-intelligent playmaker at 19 years old. He doesn’t fit the traditional mold of a “star” guard, but he elevates those around him with effortless ball movement and consistent rim pressure. If he can get the 3-point shot to a place of reliability, then it’s hard to imagine Black not positively influencing winning for years to come.
Orlando is already very far along in their rebuild. Banchero and Wagner are banging down the door to stardom, Wendell Carter Jr. is the ideal connective-tissue big, and Markelle Fultz is starting to remind folks why he was once the No. 1 pick. The Magic play quality, competitive defense and the bones of a one-day elite offense are in place.
This draft helps get them closer to that elite offense. Gradey Dick immediately increases Orlando’s 3-point rate and vastly improves the spacing around Banchero and Fultz. He’s arguably the best shooter on the board, with picturesque mechanics and the ability to elevate into his shot at a moment’s notice, whether he’s flying off a screen J.J. Redick-style or probing his defender off the dribble.
That said, Dick is much more than a shooter. At 6-foot-8, he’s not an athletic stiff. He can get above the rim here and there, especially when given a runway in transition. He’s more than capable of punishing errant closeouts with drives down the lane. His body control in the paint is frequently impressive, although he probably needs to add more muscle for the NBA. Off the ball, Dick punishes lackadaisical defense with timely backdoor cuts and constant relocation.
Defense is probably the biggest area of concern with Dick, again because he simply lacks weight. He’s smart and competitive and should, if nothing else, provide competent team defense. Whether he can hold up on an island with top-shelf NBA athletes is the real question.
The Blazers tend to like young athletes who leap off the screen, literally and figuratively. Anfernee Simons, Shaedon Sharpe — they clearly have a type. And Cam Whitmore fits the bill. He’s also tremendous value at No. 7, despite speculation about the Villanova product’s potentially wide range on draft night.
The appeal of Whitmore is fairly simple. His combination of size (6-foot-7), strength (230 pounds), and power athleticism is not common. Skill development will be crucial for Whitmore, but he moves with the explosive elegance of a future star. He can shred defenders with a lightning-quick first step before gliding through traffic like a meteor through the night sky.
He’s not that far behind his peers in the skill department either. He hit a respectable percentage of his 3s at Villanova and he displays real juice off the dribble. Whitmore is not quite a polished self-creator, but he has tight handles and the twitchy athleticism to one day become that. For now, he will offer plenty of offensive support as a slasher and play finisher — spotting up for 3s or cutting and making himself available above the rim.
He also possesses one of the highest defensive ceilings in the draft. Again, that elite athleticism makes it easy to look past his flaws and imagine what could be. Whitmore has the tools to credibly guard 3-4 positions every night, he’s no stranger to highlight blocks, and his instincts regularly shine through on the defensive end. Damian Lillard would probably prefer a more established star, but Whitmore has the potential to make a significant two-way impact sooner than later.
The Hornets started to play real defense toward the end of the season. That’s a promising trend and it will have to continue once LaMelo Ball returns in the fall. At times, Charlotte has felt like the most directionless franchise in the NBA. But it’s hard to be truly directionless with a young star of Ball’s caliber locked in, and many of Charlotte’s young peripheral pieces — P.J. Washington, Mark Williams, Nick Richards — are starting to pay dividends.
In Jarace Walker, the Hornets add the most impressive defensive prospect from the college ranks. Walker absolutely dominated at Houston; his blend of strength, mobility, and awareness was simply too much for college offenses to scheme around. Walker has the competitive fire and intangibles you want in a franchise cornerstone and he’s tailor-made to defend in the modern NBA.
Listed at 6-foot-8 with a 7-foot-2 wingspan, Walker is built like an NFL player. He can battle bigs in the post, slide his feet with guards on the perimeter, or incite chaos as a roamer. He’s sharp and seldom out of position. His switchability should eventually translate to the highest level of NBA competition. Not many players can actually guard five positions, but Walker is one of them.
Walker’s fit is equally intriguing on the offensive end. He’s smooth and physical in the post, capable of evading defenders with nimble footwork or plowing right through them. His passing acumen carries unique value in the frontcourt and there are real flashes of pull-up shot-making. That said, his inconsistency from deep is a valid concern — especially when projecting his fit next to paint-bound centers like Williams or Richards.
The Spurs are rumored to be higher than the consensus on the Thompson twins, so this outcome would suit them just fine. Ausar Thompson doesn’t quite ascend to his brother’s heights athletically, but he’s further along as a shooter and defender, which could lead to more immediate NBA success. He was MVP of the Overtime Elite league (for whatever that’s worth) and the young Spurs would be able to hand him a significant role right away.
San Antonio is still getting their rebuild off the ground, but Thompson would give them a strong foundation. With Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson flanking him in the wings, along with Jeremy Sochan in the frontcourt, the Spurs would have a distinctly modern concoction of length and skill.
At 6-foot-7, Thompson may not be the same athlete as his brother, but he’s still a better athlete than 95 percent of NBA players. He elevates effortlessly around the rim, displaying the body control and touch needed to one day reach stardom. Thompson puts constant pressure on the rim and he can make every pass in the book. He’s an advanced defender for his age, to boot.
The primary concern with Thompson is the jumper. He’s further along than Amen, especially in terms of his comfort level taking 3s, but they don’t fall often enough. His rigid mechanics need work. Luckily, the Spurs have the best shooting development track record of any NBA team and plenty of time for patience.
The Pistons find themselves in a tricky position here. Most young teams in the early stages of their rebuild should, without hesitation, take the Best Player Available — in this case, Amen Thompson. But the Pistons already have two very talented ball-handlers in Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey. Meanwhile, the biggest question with Amen is whether or not the jumper can get to a place where he’s comfortable off the ball.
Detroit would probably consider names like Whitmore or Walker here, or maybe even Ausar — he does feel slightly further along when it comes to playing without the ball. But the pick is Amen Thompson, as the Pistons are still too early in their incubation process to get overly caught up in fit.
Both Thompson and Cunningham are 6-foot-7, so size on the defensive end isn’t really an issue. Thompson is already a plus defensively and what little we’ve seen from Cunningham in the NBA suggests that he will be a plus defensively as well. Ivey thrives attacking off the catch and Cunningham is a willing and able shooter. It would take time and effort, but having multiple players who can break down the defense is not bad. Thompson gets to the rim whenever he wants and, generally, it’s not too difficult to find productive ways to weaponize that kind of talent.
The Pistons’ offense would have a three-headed hydra with multiple quality defensive bigs on the back line. Thompson would need to work on the jumper and get more comfortable using his athleticism to score without the ball, but he’s an obvious future star. The Pistons can’t pass him up at No. 4.
The potential return of James Harden could complicate Houston’s backcourt plans, but there’s no way the Rockets pass up Scoot Henderson with the No. 3 pick. He’s too undeniable a talent — a monster athlete who takes immense pride in decimating his opponent every time out.
As currently constructed, the Rockets wouldn’t have much trouble handing the keys to Henderson. He’s an electric slasher who could find quick synergy in two-man actions with Alperen Sengun. While it’s fair to be mildly concerned about Jalen Green, he’s still a special athlete and ridiculous shot-making talent who would probably benefit from splitting creation duties with a ball-handler of Henderson’s caliber.
Houston’s other core pieces, such as Jabari Smith and Tari Eason, project more as complementary talents. Henderson is another guard who touches the paint seemingly at will. His dribble penetration would open up a lot of good looks from deep for Smith and the Rockets’ shooters. On the defensive end, Henderson plays much bigger than his listed height of 6-foot-3 — his 6-foot-9 wingspan and unbridled competitive spirit being the reason why.
Efficiency has been an issue for Henderson in the G-League, especially from 3-point range. A late-season dip in his percentages is partially what sparked the sudden conversation around a certain Alabama wing surpassing him in the race for No. 2 (more on that shortly). But it’s important to remember how young Henderson is. Don’t miss the forest for the trees here; Henderson is the real deal.
Agree or not, it’s clear a lot of NBA decision-makers believe Brandon Miller could be the second-best prospect in this draft. A team like OKC rocketing into the No. 2 slot would make that outcome even more likely. Considering both the fit and the immediate goals of the franchise, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Thunder opt for Miller.
Oklahoma City already has two ball-handlers who are learning to play off of one another in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey. Both demand a lot of touches and meanwhile, both Jalen Williams and Lu Dort are competent (to varying degrees) as connective playmakers. The Thunder don’t really need another ball-dominant guard in Henderson’s vein.
Miller is the prototypical modern wing so many aspiring contenders covet. At 6-foot-9, he’s a flat-out elite shooter and versatile defender. He can space the floor for OKC’s stars in the short term, while still offering long-term upside of his own as a self-creator (some of his passing flashes at Alabama have been absolutely stunning and he’s a burgeoning mid-range savant).
The Alabama freshman struggled in the NCAA Tournament, but he was the best player on the best team in college basketball for an entire season before that. It’s rare for 19 or 20-year-olds to dominate at the level Miller did. The off-court controversies may ultimately factor into his draft stock, but right now it appears as though Miller is firmly rooted in the top-3.
Objectively, there is no funnier outcome than the Mavs being fined $750,000 for possibly the most blatant late-season tank job of all time, only to be rewarded with the No.1 pick and the most generationally talented prospect since Luka Doncic, who the Mavs happened to have drafted a few years back.
There’s nothing standing in Wembanyama’s way of the No. 1 pick right now. The 7-foot-5 wunderkind has been stuffing the stat sheet and the highlight reel for Metropolitans 92 in France. Simultaneously an elite rim protector and an otherworldly offensive talent, Wembanyama feels like the safest bet for absolute superstardom in years. As long as he stays healthy, it’s hard to imagine his singular athletic gifts and diverse skill set not yielding extremely positive results.
It just so happens that Dallas desperately needs a facelift in the frontcourt. The Dwight Powell-Christian Wood center rotation was a source of extreme frustration for Mavs fans all season. The Mavs are also dangerously short on complementary talent, financial flexibility, and trade capital, which makes it very difficult to upgrade the roster around Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving — if Kyrie Irving even decides to re-sign. Wemby would be a miracle save from the basketball gods, suddenly giving Dallas dynastic potential for the next decade if Mark Cuban and the front office don’t fumble the proverbial bag.
No prospect is a sure thing. Wemby will face challenges with NBA physicality and there are always injury concerns with players that tall. Especially when they’re also that skinny. But the talent level is off the charts and no prospect checks more boxes across the board. He is quite literally the best offensive and defensive prospect in the draft. The Mavs would be over the moon.