Mistakes will be made in the 2023 NFL Draft, but what if every team botched their first-round pick? We explore those options in this latest NFL Mock Draft.
You’re going to see a ton of 2023 NFL mock draft projections predicting what teams are going to do, what teams should do, and some combinations of the two. You won’t see many about what teams could do to completely screw things up in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Like Frank Reynolds with the toe knife, this is a botch job. We’re going through the entire first round in this 2023 NFL mock draft and seeing what the first round would look like if every team botched its first-round pick.
To be quite clear, just because I’m calling it a bad pick is no reflection on the outlook of the prospect in question. However, with the value of each pick combined with team needs and situations, it would not be a wise use of the draft capital.
So if any of these happen and you feel like you need to plug the wound with garbage, don’t panic — it might still work out. But based on what we know about these prospects and teams, here’s how every team could screw up their first-round selection in the 2023 NFL Draft.
NFL Mock Draft 2023, Botch Job: Every team screws up its first-round pick
Just a little more than a week out from the draft, it appears that the Carolina Panthers are locked in on Bryce Young and that the Alabama quarterback will be the No. 1 overall pick.
But if the Panthers were to galaxy-brain the top-overall selection in 2023, it would undoubtedly be taking Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson over Young or C.J. Stroud. Yes, the Gator product has every physical tool and attribute you could ever ask for, and I believe he’s farther along as a project quarterback than some others might indicate.
The fact of the matter, though, is that Richardson is a one-year starter who didn’t produce at a high level in that one year. Unless that player falls into an ideal situation, there is high bust potential with taking that quarterback No. 1, even if the tools and measurables are enough to consider taking him first overall for a team like the Panthers.
So things are going to get a bit convoluted early with this pick. Reports have indicated that the Texans only like one quarterback in this draft: Bryce Young. Subsequently, with things trending toward the Panthers taking him with the first pick, Houston is also rumored to be looking to move out of this pick.
For this botch job of an NFL mock draft, though, we’re going with the general “not taking a quarterback No. 2 overall” as the big mistake the Texans could make.
Don’t get me wrong, Houston is clearly giving DeMeco Ryans as much runway as he needs with the six-year contract the new head coach was given. However, it would be a tough scene to see the Texans give the first-year head coach Davis Mills as the top quarterback option on the roster again. They have to start solving the QB issue soon and this top-heavy class where they have the second-overall pick is where it should happen. Waiting should not be a viable option.
NFL Mock Draft 2023: Every team screws up its first-round pick
Even if we’re overlooking the off-field concerns with Jalen Carter — which we definitely should not be — the Cardinals taking him with the No. 3 overall pick would be an absolute mistake for the new regime in Arizona.
With the Panthers trading up to No. 1 and the Texans looking like a wild card, there should be a hot market for the No. 3 pick among teams that are trying to get into the mix for this quarterback class and, more importantly, jump ahead of the Colts at No. 4.
While we aren’t taking these phone calls, the quarterback class combined with needs around the league makes it hard to believe that there won’t be good trade offers on the table for the Cardinals. As such, if Arizona doesn’t trade out of this pick to start building capital for the future, it’s a misfire on their part.
Jim Irsay pulling the levers for the Indianapolis Colts always leaves them with an unpredictable aura, but that’s especially true with the franchise in the quarterback market for the 2023 draft. And it just feels all too perfect that they would ignore Bryce Young because he’s too small and ignore C.J. Stroud for not having elite tools in order to draft an alpha male with worse projectable quarterback play like Will Levis.
Levis could very well work out in the NFL. But we have one year in college where he produced like a top quarterback prospect would and, as his situation at Kentucky worsened, he failed to elevate the team around him. Moreover, this is a guy who couldn’t beat out Sean Clifford at Penn State, which is how he ended up in Lexington.
Taking Levis over any of the other Top 4 quarterback prospects would be a mistake, but it’s one the Colts could conceivably make.
NFL Mock Draft 2023: Every team screws up its first-round pick
With the No. 5 pick in the NFL Draft in their pockets, the Seattle Seahawks are sitting pretty because of how disastrously the Russell Wilson trade worked out for the Broncos in year one.
However, the Seahawks have a bit of a troublesome history when it comes to the first round of the draft as a fair share of major reaches litter recent history. So it would only figure that they would do the same now that the franchise has a Top 5 pick at their disposal.
Tyree Wilson checks all the box from an athleticism and tools perspective as an edge rusher, but the production was never there at Texas Tech and there is refinement needed. This feels like a top-end version of what the Seahawks did with L.J. Collier a few years ago waiting to happen.
In some aspects, Bryce Young falling to the No. 6 overall pick would be a gift for the Lions. I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t at least a bit intrigued by the fact that Detroit has a roster that seems ready to compete for a playoff berth and Young would be the quarterback upgrade over Jared Goff to get them into full-blown contention.
Having said that, I’m just not in on the Lions using their draft capital this year on that quarterback. For me, it would behoove Detroit to try and move back via trade in order to get more picks for the 2024 draft in order to have ammo to move up for guys like Caleb Williams or Drake Maye, a surer bet and upgrade while allowing the Lions to continue building out the rest of the roster in the 2023 draft.
NFL Mock Draft 2023: Every team screws up its first-round pick
Much like the Lions with the pick immediately before them, it’s not difficult to imagine a world in which the Raiders are truly thrilled to have C.J. Stroud fall to them. But for me, that couldn’t be a worse fit for the player that they are getting and the situation the current roster in Las Vegas has before it.
There is a lot to like about Stroud as he comes out of Ohio State. He’s elitely accurate and has very clear positive mental processing. The big drawback with him, though, is the lack of mobility and overall athleticism. That’s where he falls short in comparison to the other top guys in the class.
For a Raiders team with an offensive line that needs a ton of work, that’s not a good young quarterback to bring into the situation. Vegas signed Jimmy Garoppolo for flexibility for the future at the position and, if this were the only quarterback in the Top 4 available, then it would be wisest to wait.
It’s never been a secret that the Atlanta Falcons have lacked edge pass rushing for a few years now — okay, maybe even longer than that. So if the board were to fall like this, the club looking to that position would make a lot of sense, especially after filling a hole at cornerback with Jeff Okudah recently via trade.
What I wouldn’t do in that situation would be to take Lukas Van Ness out of Iowa. Again, this is a player with a ton of traits, but the whole package just isn’t worthy of a Top 10 selection.
Van Ness only had 6.5 sacks last season, which is actually fewer than the 7.0 he had the previous year. For a player with his physical attributes and athleticism, that shouldn’t be the type of production we’re seeing. Those traits make him a highly valuable project but the Falcons can’t afford using the No. 8 pick on something so far from being a sure thing.
NFL Mock Draft 2023: Every team screws up its first-round pick
The closer we get to the draft and the more we hear about the Bears trade with the Panthers involving the No. 1 overall picks, specifically Chicago’s insistence on getting D.J. Moore, the more I’m convinced that this team is going to make it a priority to get Justin Fields more weapons to help him succeed.
If that is true, then I would love Jaxon Smith-Njigba in this spot. Instead, it feels more likely that the team would get enamored with running back Bijan Robinson and use a Top 10 pick on a running back.
Make no mistake, the combination of Fields and Robinson could be special to watch. However, this is a team still with massive needs on the offensive line and who has serviceable veterans in D’Onta Foreman and Khalil Herbert at running back. It’s impossible to not love Robinson, but this isn’t the pick to use on him.
Finding a pick that the Eagles could truly botch at No. 10 is, frankly, pretty damn difficult. This is a team that, after finding ways to keep several more of the key free agents this offseason than expected, doesn’t have many roster holes to truly speak of. As such, there are a lot of different ways that they could go with this selection.
However, I do believe that Nolan Smith at this spot could be a bit too much of a luxury pick for the reigning NFC champs.
Let’s be very clear, I’m high on Smith as a prospect. Despite being undersized, his physical tools and athleticism are overall freakish and should translate to him having success as a pass rusher. The bar for players this size to clear to be that, though, is hard to clear. There are surer players to use this selection on at this spot, even if Philly is in an advantageous overall position to draft.
NFL Mock Draft 2023: Every team screws up its first-round pick
Frankly, I don’t truly hate this pick for the Titans and wouldn’t classify this as a total botch job.
Tennessee’s offensive line is in bad shape after a bevy of missed picks and, ultimately, injuries taking too much of a toll on Taylor Lewan, which led to his release earlier this offseason. So going after a tackle is not a bad option — and Paris Johnson Jr. is rated by many as the top player at the position in this class.
That, however, is not the case for me. I would much prefer taking a player like Peter Skoronski, who is the best offensive lineman overall in the class, but with some concerns about his size to play tackle in the NFL. Moreover, I believe Broderick Jones has the higher ceiling. So it’s a bit nit-picky to call this a misfire for the Titans, but it felt right.
Wide receiver, defensive line, interior offensive line, linebacker, cornerback — all of these would fit the bill for the Texans in this spot, even after they mistakenly took Will Anderson at No. 2. And yet, it feels entirely possible that they could get enamored with the traits of someone like Calijah Kancey and do something ultra silly with the 12th pick in the draft.
Kancey is going to get the Aaron Donald comparisons because he was super productive at Pitt as an ultimately undersized interior defensive lineman with a pass rush specialty. And there is obviously a path for that type of player to succeed in the NFL. One of the biggest keys to assuring that, though, is the situation. As the Texans still search for their quarterback and fill a myriad of roster holes, that’s not the type of situation where Kancey is going to find success.
NFL Mock Draft 2023: Every team screws up its first-round pick
With all but one offensive lineman on the board, it would make total sense for the New York Jets to try and find an answer at tackle to help sort out the issues they’re facing with the likes of Duane Brown, Mekhi Becton and the tackle group currently on the roster.
Still operating under the assumption that Aaron Rodgers is heading to the Big Apple soon, though, the fact of the matter is that the Jets have already proven their willingness to bend over backward for the future Hall-of-Famer. So if he wants another weapon, they’d give it to him.
Make no mistake, seeing Jaxon Smith-Njigba with Garrett Wilson, Mecole Hardman and Allen Lazard would be a ton of fun with Rodgers throwing them the ball. But for a team clearly trying to open a Super Bowl window with the quarterback, this isn’t the move that puts them in the best overall spot.
The New England Patriots not putting Mac Jones out on an island with an obvious path the failure again isn’t a bad thing. This team needs to continue addressing the lack of quality pass-catchers in the offense and seeing them do so in the first round of the draft would not be a bad thing at all. This being a botch job is more about the Patriots not seeing the red flags waving right now with Quentin Johnston as a prospect.
Wildly productive at TCU, Johnston looks like he should be a matchup nightmare with his size and explosiveness. But when you look at his average testing speed combined with the fact that he plays much smaller than his size on tape, it’s hard to see him as the true alpha No. 1 receiver that the Pats would be looking for. This pick would be ignoring the signs, which is a problem for a team in such desperate need of help at the position.
NFL Mock Draft 2023: Every team screws up its first-round pick
I have a strong inclination that, if the Packers end up dealing Aaron Rodgers before the draft, this pick will be for either a tight end or a wide receiver when it’s all said and done. Green Bay infamously ignored those areas in the first round throughout the quarterback’s tenure at Lambeau. So it would be perfect if the fed-up organization went with a spite pick that, in truth, the roster also needs too as Samori Toure is currently the WR3.
Subsequently, though, the pitfall that the Packers could fall into is their old habits as they hand the keys to Jordan Love. Pass-catchers and offensive line help should be top priority for this team, but seeing a great cornerback like Devon Witherspoon on the board when Green Bay could use some help there would be extremely on-brand and extremely the wrong pick at this point and time.
If a team outside of the Top 20 wants to take Hendon Hooker or, better yet, if a team early in the second round wants to give the Tennessee product a long look, I’d be more than okay with that.
Hooker has a great arm, nice athleticism, and a clear feel for processing even coming out of a gimmicky college offense that won’t suffice in the NFL. But the undeniable truth of the matter is that he’s already in his mid-20s and won’t play in the 2023 season as he recovers from a late-season torn ACL with the Vols.
Yes, the Commanders need some answers at quarterback. But Washington is much better off trying to build out the rest of the roster still and seeing what they have in a Sam Howell rather than reaching heavily on a player like Hooker who they won’t get true answers on until 2024.
NFL Mock Draft 2023: Every team screws up its first-round pick
It’s a storybook move written in the stars for the son of a Steelers legend to fill a position of need in Pittsburgh. Look around and just about 1-out-of-every-2 NFL mock draft projections will have Joey Porter Jr. playing his home football at forever-Heinz Field — or whatever it’s supposed to be called now.
There is a definite need at cornerback with the Steelers as they signed a stopgap veteran in Patrick Peterson this offseason as a big move to address the weakness. And there is a lot to like about Porter Jr. as a prospect with unreal length and extremely high football IQ at the position.
However, the Penn State product isn’t a great athlete despite his positive traits. That type of player can take time to get comfortable defending consistent NFL speed and the Steelers can’t afford to be waiting much longer at corner. It’s a great story, but not the best football move for Pittsburgh.
If there’s one area where the Lions are strongest, a lot of people would say it’s along the offensive line. I would largely agree as this unit in the trenches has been a leading group for the rise to success in Detroit over the past year or so. Thus, it’s not a need that the team should be looking to address in the first round, especially with the situations at wide receiver and in the front seven.
That being said, Peter Skoronski is a certified ass-kicker who dominates opposing defensive linemen and has tackle/guard versatility. When Dan Campbell turns on the film of the Northwestern product, it’s entirely possible that he has a full-blown Vince McMahon-meme type of reaction. A football guy drafting a football guy isn’t that outlandish, man, but it would undeniably not be a wise use of this selection.
NFL Mock Draft 2023: Every team screws up its first-round pick
When you have the chance to get an elite quarterback duo like Kyle Trask and Baker Mayfield another weapon in the offense, you have to do it.
That, of course, is not remotely true. In the wake of Tom Brady’s retirement, the Buccaneers roster is not in the best shape and it could be getting worse with Devin White recently requesting a trade out of Tampa. This is a team that needs to start looking to the trenches and doing so with authority.
Having said that, there is a world where the front office, which has sneakily not been drafting all that way in the past couple of years, would look at the young quarterbacks and try to aid them in the wrong way, which is what Dalton Kincaid would be. A great weapon for a good offense, he’s the type of player who could get lost in obscurity in a situation like the Bucs’, even if Tampa Bay needs a tight end.
Hitting on Tariq Woolen as a fifth-round pick a year ago was a massive win for the Seahawks, but it doesn’t erase the fact that the rest of the cornerback group in Seattle leaves quite a lot to be desired.
At the same time, though, this is a Seahawks team that continues to need offensive line help, continues to need quality depth in the front seven, and that has done a decent job of making things work with this secondary, even with a lack of talent at times.
Christian Gonzalez would not be an outright bad selection, especially with the value at No. 20 overall. With the players still left on the board, though, it would be hard to look at the rest of the roster and think that this would be the best way for the Seahawks to operate, especially after gambling at No. 5 with Tyree Wilson.
NFL Mock Draft 2023: Every team screws up its first-round pick
The Miami Dolphins actually already did my job for me with this selection. They would have the final Top 20 pick in the draft but, instead, Stephen Ross decided that tampering with Tom Brady was the better course of action, so the pick has been forfeited.
It feels like we’re not talking enough about how wildly bad of a look this is for Miami. This team is on the precipice of something exciting, it seems, but losing a first-round pick for dumb off-field actions by the front office is a good way to hold that back from happening.
Very similar to the situation with the Seahawks, when you look at the Chargers roster, there is a definite need at cornerback, and that’s worsened if J.C. Jackson can’t prove to be the player he was prior to signing in LA as a Patriot.
Unlike Seattle, though, the big thing for the Bolts in the first round should be to do everything in its power to maximize this window for young Justin Herbert at quarterback. He’s a special talent but it feels like the supporting cast has continually let him down over the past few years.
Subsequently, if this pick isn’t used on the offensive side of the ball to put the Los Angeles offense in a better spot with its depth and personnel, it feels like that’s a crucial mistake. Herbert appears ready to make a leap, but he can’t do that if he’s being put out on an island by the front office with their draft picks and personnel decisions.
NFL Mock Draft 2023: Every team screws up its first-round pick
For so long, the Baltimore Ravens defense was just something that you could set your watch to. They consistently hit on high draft picks, found value late in the draft, signed smart free agents, and made teams hate facing them. That was decisively not the case in the 2022 season, however, and now the unit is in clear need of some help.
Perhaps the only area where the Ravens defense doesn’t require some upgrades is at pass rusher. But with the way the board looks, this should be a pick to help that side of the ball.
Instead, as the team very clearly remains desperate (rightfully so, for what it’s worth) to not lose Lamar Jackson, this is a classic spot for Baltimore to try and make the quarterback happy with an undersized and under-athletic receiver who was productive in college like Jordan Addison.
Look, Lamar! They got you another weapon — just don’t worry about the defense allowing 30 points per game.
Much of the 2023 offseason for the Vikings has been centered upon reshaping a defense that has wildly underperformed for some time now. It was needed, but it’s also a process that’s not done. As things currently stand, Danielle Hunter is holding out on offseason workouts and could be moved while Za’Darius Smith requested a trade or his release back in March and that is assumedly still the case with him as well.
That puts a premium on getting an edge rusher and there are lot of fans of Myles Murphy. While I would love him as a Top 50 pick early in the second round, I can’t justify using a first-rounder on him. He has athleticism and physical tools for days, but when you have that in the tool chest and only produce 6.5 sacks in the ACC last season, that worries me a great deal. He’s not the pass-rushing force that the Vikings need right away and this pick would be better used on a number of other players in the front seven at this spot.
NFL Mock Draft 2023: Every team screws up its first-round pick
Over the past few years, it’s been abundantly clear that the Jaguars as a front office — even with some moving parts — value pass rushers at an extremely high level. That’s why they’ve used three first-round picks on pass rushers since 2019, including taking Travon Walker first overall a year ago.
The problem, of course, has been that they haven’t seen the results of the capital spent there yet. It’s still an area of the defense that needs some help — it’s just not the area of the roster that needs the most help.
So taking an edge rusher at all could be an issue, but that’s even more so the case if it were Will McDonald IV. I just don’t see a first-round prospect on the tape, even with his obvious explosiveness and potential. That feels like a pick that would just continue this tiresome loop of trying to get the pass rush in Duval right.
Particularly after ponying up to Daniel Jones this offseason, it’s a pretty simple edict I would have for the New York Giants in this year’s draft: If you leave Kansas City with fewer than two new pass-catchers on the roster, something has gone awry.
The dirty secret about the wide receivers in the 2023 NFL Draft, though, is that the top of the class just isn’t that far separated from the next tier of players. There is immensely more value in taking pass-catchers, specifically at receiver, on Day 2 and early Day 3 then there is reaching for someone like Zay Flowers with the 25th overall pick.
While Flowers is a good player, he is not an offense-changing talent by my estimation. The Giants would be much smarter to address other needs in the secondary or at guard with this pick and dipping into the receiver pool later in their draft.
NFL Mock Draft 2023: Every team screws up its first-round pick
There are some aspects in which Michael Mayer would make a ton of sense for the Cowboys. After playing last year on the franchise tag, Dalton Schultz is gone in Dallas and they could use a pass-catching security blanket for Dak Prescott. As a draft prospect, the Notre Dame product is about as good of an option for that as is available, especially with his potential as a blocker too.
Having said that, I don’t think eagerly looking to fill the void left by Schultz is the best option in the first round.
The Cowboys offensive line needs work for the future that would make any of the top guards or tackles a viable option here. Moreover, the defensive line still needs help with its depth and adding a potential top-end talent at No. 26 would help tremendously. Unfortunately, it feels like this mistake at tight end might be the most likely course of action for Dallas at this point.
With Josh Allen and the Bills so painfully close to Super Bowl contention, it feels like this franchise knows that it could get over the hump with the right assortment of draft picks. But it’s also easy to see them talking themselves into something like drafting Darnell Wright.
The biggest needs in Buffalo, from where I’m sitting, are at linebacker, wide receiver, and the depth of the front seven. There are options that should be available at No. 27 (and are in this NFL mock draft) that could help with any of those areas.
Having said that, Spencer Brown is a weak link at right tackle and Wright dominated that spot at Tennessee. Thus, the Bills could see that as an easy fix. The issue is that Wright just doesn’t seem like the best fit in this offense as a physical, massive mauler on the right side. And given that plus the team’s other needs, this would be a tough selection to stomach at the end of the day.
NFL Mock Draft 2023: Every team screws up its first-round pick
If you haven’t picked on this theme throughout this draft, one thing I’m rarely a fan of is an over-reactionary approach to what happened in free agency when it comes to early picks in the draft. So if the Bengals were to move quickly at the end of the first round to try and replace Jessie Bates with Brian Branch, I’d have an issue with that.
First off, Branch isn’t the athlete or coverage player that Bates was, even as the best safety in this draft class. As such, it would be a poor replacement.
But more importantly, the Bengals have bigger needs where there is more value here, specifically with linebackers, cornerback and even defensive line help. That’s where this pick should go, not on an ill-fitting replacement for Bates after losing him in free agency.
Bryan Bresee is yet another player in the 2023 draft class who, when you look at the measurables, has the clear potential to be dominant — very much a throughline for much of the front seven players in this class. But he just never put that together in college, which another problematic but frequent occurrence among the defensive linemen and edge rushers.
Make no mistake, the Saints need a ton of front seven help given the lack of depth and some real holes in that group. But they also have needs at receiver, potentially at running back, with cornerback and secondary depth, and so on.
This is far from a complete roster and there are players who will still be available at No. 29 who can truly help the cause right away. What Bresee showed at Clemson is not a player who fits into that mold, which is a problem for me after New Orleans seemingly tried to solve the quarterback issue with Derek Carr this offseason.
NFL Mock Draft 2023: Every team screws up its first-round pick
Let me preface everything that’s about to be said with the fact that I think Jahmyr Gibbs could be special in the Eagles offense. With his explosiveness and burst in an offense with Jalen Hurts at quarterback behind one of the league’s best offensive lines, the results could be special.
Having said that, the totality of this botch job for the Eagles is essentially if Philadelphia gets too comfortable and uses both selections as pseudo-luxury picks. Reaching and gambling on the athleticism at Nolan Smith at No. 10 is more palatable if they used No. 30 on a player who they feel might have a lower ceiling but has a higher floor at a premium position of need.
So to draft a running back, even if an exciting fit, after taking Smith would be addressing a need that isn’t all that dire and that isn’t tremendous value for Philadelphia in a quietly deep running back class.
Speaking of luxury picks that are bad ideas, the Kansas City Chiefs have fallen into that trap before. After the first Super Bowl win of the Andy Reid-Patrick Mahomes era, the club drafted Clyde Edwards-Helaire to “take the offense to the next level” with the last pick of the first round.
Though Tank Dell is a wide receiver and not a running back, you could put selecting him with the 31st pick into the same bucket.
The Chiefs do need wide receiver help with Mecole Hardman and JuJu Smith-Schuster leaving, but the fact of the matter is that Dell is wildly undersized and not a surefire answer to what they need given the players they do have, such as Skyy Moore. Eyeing the offensive line, specifically at tackle, or another wide receiver even would make sense. Yet, the enticing speed and versatility of Dell could have Kansas City at least considering something akin to this mistake.