Not every team in the 2023 NFL Draft selected players whose skills aligned with franchise schemes. Here are five of the best and worst fits for NFL rookies.
Following the 2023 NFL Draft, most draft grades were notably forgiving to NFL general managers. For example, the Minnesota Vikings received high grades for drafting Jordan Addison because Addison is a stellar wide receiver who will presumably work out well in Minnesota, never mind the fact that the Vikings should have focused on defense in the first round.
“Did everybody win the draft?” Pat McAfee asked on his show, addressing the bizarre phenomenon of general positivity post-draft.
Even though it may seem like a league of winners, admittedly, some star players landed in better environments than others. Minnesota is expected to get the best out of Addison, but a team in a quarterback crisis likely wouldn’t. Zay Flowers entered the draft conversation as an underrated prospect, and if the Baltimore Ravens never use him, it could reinforce assumptions about his limitations.
Drafting the right player isn’t easy, especially in a league where coaches and schemes usually change as often as the rosters. That’s why some lucky players ended up in ideal circumstances, while others joined teams that may not be able to make the most of what their players offer.
Here are the five best and worst fits of the 2023 NFL Draft:
5. Best Fit: Deuce Vaughn, Dallas Cowboys
Despite being the Cowboys’ assistant director of college scouting, Chris Vaughn wasn’t able to collaboratively evaluate every draft prospect in the 2023 class. When the Cowboys would discuss a particular running back out of Kansas State, Vaughn would recuse himself from these discussions. That’s because the running back was Deuce Vaughn, Chris’ 21-year-old son.
When the Cowboys decided to draft Deuce in the sixth round without Chris’ influence — or knowledge — it made for a “tearjerker” moment, according to Deuce. Storybook-ending aside, the Cowboys are an ideal fit for Vaughn.
Not every NFL team heavily incorporates runners, but the Cowboys include running back involvement as a mainstay of their offensive scheme. By adding Vaughn, the Cowboys wield an elusive, speedy runner and receiver who finds opportunities in space and creates separation within seconds. The Cowboys are optimistic for a Darren Sproles-type player, but at the very least, Vaughn’s tape ensures a special teams returner who can change games with improved field position. The Cowboys can find creative ways to utilize him in a league that’s beginning to prize speed over size.
Despite his productivity at Kansas State, Vaughn certainly could have landed in a much worse situation, struggling on a team that isn’t prepared with an offensive line or scheme to incorporate Vaughn’s talents. The addition of Mazi Smith and having Dak Prescott at quarterback means Deuce Vaughn can join the Cowboys and hit the ground running.
5. Worst Fit: Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs
After drafting Felix Anudike-Uzomah with the last pick of the first round, the Chiefs addressed another pressing roster need in the second. Kansas City chose Rashee Rice, a speedy wide receiver out of SMU.
NFL.com projected Rice to go in the third or fourth round, and by trading up to pick at No. 55, it seems like Rashee Rice was a reach compared to his initial draft projection.
On paper, Rice has the qualities of the most successful Chiefs receivers, which is to say that he’s quick and explosive. “Rice has enough top-end speed to attack vertically,” wrote NFL.com analyst Lance Zierlein, describing Rice as a prospect boasting “terrific ball-tracking” and “jump-ball victories.” Yet in the same breath, Zierlein cautions that Rice is a risk considering his inconsistent route-running and ball security.
If the Chiefs wanted their usual speedy receiver, they could have drafted Jalin Hyatt or Josh Downs, two players who ranked among the Top 50 prospects and who were still available when the Chiefs picked. In fact, Hyatt sported a slightly faster 40-yard dash time and a longer broad jump measurement, as well as a higher overall prospect grade by NFL.com. Without inside knowledge, Jalin Hyatt appears to suit the Chiefs’ offense more than Rice does, especially considering the concerns that Rice will be able to develop enough to start.
4. Best Fit: Brian Branch, Detroit Lions
Although the Detroit Lions faced flak for drafting Jack Campbell and Jahmyr Gibbs on Day 1, they finished the draft with the highest overall grade, according to Next Gen Stats. That can largely be attributed to the fact that they were the team fortunate enough to land Brian Branch, the only safety included among the Top 50 prospects.
Any NFL team with safety needs would have benefitted from Branch, whose high football IQ and leadership traits can improve the secondary as a whole. Through college, Branch exhibited how he could uplift his defense with intuitive reads and good communication. What he needed in the draft was to have his game matched at the NFL level, and under Aaron Glenn’s tutelage, Branch has the opportunity to further his development in Detroit. Glenn was the defensive backs coach for the New Orleans Saints from 2016 to 2020 as he oversaw the development of C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Vonn Bell.
After having the NFL’s worst defense through their first seven games last year, the Lions have made extensive coaching changes in addition to calculated roster moves. By adding Brian Branch, arguably the best safety in the draft class, the Lions now have someone who can quickly become the quarterback of the defense. Additionally, Branch has the versatility to play in the slot as a nickel cornerback, which can only create more dynamism on a defense in need of it.
4. Worst Fit: Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens
Giving the Ravens a “B” for drafting Zay Flowers is the result of averaging Zay Flowers’ individual grade against how he fits into the Ravens’ offense. Zay Flowers is an A+ prospect, but the Ravens deserve a C for drafting the wrong type of receiver for their scheme.
Even though the Ravens now have former Georgia offensive coordinator Todd Monken designing plays for Lamar Jackson, Jackson has proven to work best targeting tight ends and tall wide receivers. Baltimore has been notorious about neglecting their receivers, and even though they’ve spent several first-round picks on wide receivers in recent years, it’s Mark Andrews who continuously catches the rock. Former NFL executive Michael Lombardi elaborated on this during a podcast review of the draft.
“I think Lamar needs tight ends and big receivers,” Lombardi said. “If I was Baltimore, I would have drafted [Dalton] Kincaid because Lamar succeeds with tight ends. He succeeds with big receivers in the middle of the field, not little guys on the outside.”
Despite the talk about Flowers’ height, there are plenty of teams who could have utilized him in an NFL offense. Unfortunately, it doesn’t seem like the Ravens have one of those offenses.
3. Best Fit: Christian Gonzalez, New England Patriots
The latest gem in Bill Belichick’s man-heavy scheme, Christian Gonzalez arrives in what is arguably the best place for a young cornerback to land. Over the past few years, the Patriots have collected plenty of undersized corners and versatile hybrid safeties to play a variety of coverages, causing nightmares for slot receivers, the run game, and quarterbacks confused by a variety of looks. What the Patriots did not have was someone who could serve as a true replacement for Stephon Gilmore, a tall, physical corner who could swivel on routes and extend outside.
Gonzalez has the physical attributes to keep up with the league’s top receivers, but what he’s still developing is the intuition to predict routes instead of occasionally playing catch up. When it comes to understanding the game, Gonzalez could not have a better mentor than Belichick.
Gonzalez provides a larger cornerback to play on the perimeter against opponents’ top receivers and help New England return to the man-heavy coverages they thrived with when they had Gilmore, Darrelle Revis or Ty Law. With Belichick improving his mental game, Gonzalez has the makings of an All-Pro cornerback who could join the conversation with previous Patriots greats.
3. Worst Fit: Quentin Johnston, Los Angeles Chargers
The takeaway with drafting Quentin Johnston with No. 21 is that the Chargers wanted to draft another tall, fast receiver to complement Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. With that in mind, Johnston has the build and traits that these Chargers veterans do, but his college tape is marred by troubling drops.
Still, he’s an understandable replacement for those aging wide receivers, and it allowed the Chargers to address a draft need early on in the process. Relatively speaking, he’s not the best fit for the Chargers, and wide receiver certainly wasn’t the most pressing need to address on their draft board. Instead, Los Angeles would have benefitted from developing a left cornerback with J.C. Jackson and Michael Davis both questionable. Or, the Chargers could have been the ones drafting Brian Branch instead of the Lions.
The Chargers already have enough offensive playmakers to compete in the AFC, and a receiver for the future doesn’t help their porous defense and weaknesses in the secondary. No number of receivers that they pile up on the depth chart behind Keenan Allen and Mike Williams will help the Chargers overcome their deficiencies and be a legitimate challenger to the Chiefs and newcomer Sean Payton’s Broncos.
2. Best Fit: Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills
Even though Michael Mayer got the edge in pre-draft rankings, it was Dalton Kincaid who ended up being drafted in the first round. Even though Mayer is an improved blocker — which will benefit the Las Vegas Raiders — the Bills are more suited to Kincaid’s skillset. Now, the Bills have another pass-catching tight end to offer Josh Allen another option, complement Dawson Knox, and perhaps even rival Travis Kelce in Chiefs matchups.
Buffalo has primarily played offense out of 11 personnel, which has made game-planning easy for defenses by presenting few surprises. Defenses can stick to their nickel package throughout the game, which has become the base defense across the league.
With the addition of Kincaid, NFL defenses will be forced to adjust to the renewed options on the Bills’ offense. Ken Dorsey can now create mismatches and headaches for defenses by mixing in 12 personnel packages driven by a talented collection of weapons led by Diggs on the perimeter.
Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid can operate in the middle of the field with seam routes, freeing up speedy receivers on the crossing routes that the Bills have thrived upon in the Josh Allen era.
Kincaid may be a liability as a blocker in the run game, but the Bills don’t utilize their running backs much anyway. This makes Kincaid a dangerous addition to Buffalo’s offense.
2. Worst Fit: Henry To’oTo’o, Houston Texans
Perhaps the fact that both Henry To’oTo’o and DeMeco Ryans both played as Alabama linebackers influenced this selection, as Ryans would be familiar with Alabama’s system.
But To’oTo’o was taken in the fifth round, meaning there’s some reservation as to whether or not will be able to contribute to the Texans’ rebuild. Though tough and technically sound, it doesn’t seem like To’oTo’o will be able to offer what Ryans brought out of a league-leading 49ers defense. “He’s just average in coverage and will need to become much more consistent as an open-field tackler,” surmised Zierlein before the draft.
According to Sports Illustrated, Ryans’ defensive philosophy is “middle-out into stout.”
“It’s an approach that also requires Ryans to trust those second-level defenders.”
While few players measure up to Fred Warner, the fact that To’oTo’o enters the building with coverage concerns means he’ll have a lot of work to do to match up to Ryans’ typical defense.
1. Best Fit: Joey Porter. Jr., Pittsburgh Steelers
Perhaps it’s best for everyone that Joey Porter Jr. fell out of the first round and into Pittsburgh’s waiting arms on Day 2 of the 2023 NFL Draft. A storybook ending to a Porter family legacy, Joey Jr. now plays for the same team his dad played for in the 2000s. Because of the family’s Pennsylvania roots, Porter grew up around the Steelers facility and Mike Tomlin, then attended nearby Penn State. Heartfelt story aside, Porter is much like his father in their physical, fiery style of play that will enliven the Steelers’ secondary.
The third-ranked cornerback in the Top 50, Porter boasts the athleticism and length that made his father a Pittsburgh legend. He’s already well-suited to press man coverage, which gives him versatility in the Steelers’ usual zone coverages. The main drawback of Porter’s game is that it remains rough, with Porter often leveraging his physicality in grabby play that draws flags. With the Steelers, Porter is sure to benefit from the strong coaching and culture that will polish his game with improved tackling and angles.
1. Worst Fit: Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
Anthony Richardson ranked at No. 42 in the Top 50 and the Indianapolis Colts received a D for drafting him at No. 4 overall. This is not because of the hype around what Richardson can do, but aversion around what Richardson hasn’t been able to do in his short time at Florida.
Any quarterback with concerning fundamentals and substantially less experience should be appreciated for their ceiling, but they also shouldn’t be given the floor at No. 4 overall. The ideal situation, one that would have been better for Richardson’s development in the long run, would have been to have him sit behind a veteran quarterback for a few years while he hones his accuracy and ball placement. Instead, Richardson is expected to be thrust into the spotlight as the starting quarterback for the Colts, even though general manager Chris Ballard expects him to take two to three years to become good.
That’s about where Richardson is, not about the Colts as an organization. Its tumultuous 2022 season is foreboding for the arrival of a green quarterback, but some have found hope in the hiring of Shane Steichen as head coach. Having coached Jalen Hurts, it’s easy to assume that Steichen could bring out the same in Richardson. However, the Eagles and Colts are vastly different in terms of their current situations, so it wouldn’t be surprising if Steichen can’t recreate a Super Bowl contender in Indianapolis. Just because it worked with Jalen Hurts doesn’t mean it’ll work with Richardson on a team lacking the Eagles’ leadership, stability, offensive weapons and defense to ease his rookie growing pains.
Usually, the top teams in any NFL Draft are the ones with chronic dysfunction and more bad seasons to come. Sadly, the Colts have been hoping for the next Peyton Manning for over a decade, and they’ll likely put Anthony Richardson in a situation that will make it hard for him to follow up that success.