NFL head coaches are fighting for their jobs all across the league. Which coaches have the hottest seat, and which jobs are safest?
There are only 32 people in the world that can call themselves NFL head coaches at any time. It is one of the most coveted positions in sports. Every year, coaches get fired, and more jobs are open. Five jobs opened in 2023, and even more could open up in 2024. There are plenty of coaches who are on flimsy ground. As the kids say, their seats are getting toasty.
Not everyone is in that position. Some coaches will get leeway, while others have built enough equity to afford one bad year. Then, there are many, many coaches who are one bad year away from the unemployment line.
We learned last season that even the safest coaches aren’t actually “safe.” The Denver Broncos fired a head coach one year into his stint. The Arizona Cardinals fired someone after signing him to an extension. Still, let’s try this exercise and try to foresee which coaches are dealing with the hottest seat in 2023.
Ranking the NFL coaches by how hot their seat is:
32. Sean Payton – Denver Broncos
First-year coaches usually aren’t as safe as one would hope. Just look at the Denver Broncos as a perfect example. Nathaniel Hackett was fired in the same year he was hired. Things went horribly wrong in Denver in 2022, and a change was necessary.
Sean Payton was an interesting coaching candidate since teams had to send the New Orleans Saints compensation to gain his services. Surprisingly, the Broncos were the team to make the trade. They were already low on picks after trading for Russell Wilson, but they still sent a 2023 first-rounder and 2024 second-rounder to the Saints in exchange for Payton and their 2024 third-rounder.
The Broncos could go 0-17 and they wouldn’t fire Payton. They gave up too much and are still paying another coach to quit this quickly. That’s why there is no coach safer than Payton. The Broncos’ new ownership spent too much capital just to gain his services.
31. Andy Reid – Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs are the reigning Super Bowl Champions. Andy Reid is one of the most respected coaches in the National Football League. He’s brought out the best of the best player in the NFL Patrick Mahomes. Everything that Reid has done since joining the Chiefs has turned into gold. That point really hit home last season, as they finished the league year lifting the Lombardi Trophy.
Reid has two Super Bowl Championships, one of only 13 coaches who have more than one all-time. He is the only active coach with multiple Super Bowl wins besides Bill Belichick. His job is as safe as any. Nothing short of a scandal would cause the Chiefs to move on from Reid.
Many thought Reid would retire at the end of last season since he could go out on top, but that wasn’t the case. He even let Eric Bieniemy go to Washington. Many expected him to be the natural successor to Reid since he was creating an offense for them.
Reid and Mahomes are going to be a dynamic duo again. They will likely win the AFC West, and they go into the year as the Super Bowl favorites. Despite many changes across the roster, this team could still win every game. Reid is part of the reason for the Chiefs’ consistency and probably an underrated part of the process.
30. Nick Sirianni – Philadelphia Eagles
Next on the list, let’s go to the other sideline for the Super Bowl. Nick Sirianni took an awesome Philadelphia Eagles roster and hit new heights. The Eagles were one of the Super Bowl favorites all season despite the lack of playoff success the year prior. Sirianni took a roster full of stars and a question at quarterback and turned it into one of the premier teams.
This season, Sirianni looks to finish the job. Yes, some issues in the Super Bowl allowed the Chiefs to come back and take a second Eagles Super Bowl from the city, but he was a large reason they made it there in the first place. His coaching moves allowed them to take first place, which set up a pretty simple run through the NFC.
Jalen Hurts had his growth under Sirianni. He went from a player who could be a decent player to a top-five QB. It definitely helped when they added AJ Brown to the receiving corps, but it takes a good coach and a good game plan to make it a fluid transition. Brown was good with the Titans, but he’s a superstar in Philadelphia. A great head coach can make that happen.
The Eagles are expected to compete again. They go into the season as an NFC favorite. Not only are they looking to repeat as NFC Champs, but the other teams made it easier. The NFC South is still terrible. Every NFC West team has question marks. The North got worse with Aaron Rodgers heading to the AFC. Even the NFC East basically stayed in place, showing the Eagles with a clear advantage. This should be a simple process heading to another banner season.
29. Kyle Shanahan – San Francisco 49ers
The San Francisco 49ers might be one of the unluckiest teams in the NFL. They were stuck with a quarterback throwing with his non-dominant hand in the NFC Championship Game, and this was already their third-string quarterback. It was a rough game, but it brought out the creativity of Kyle Shanahan.
It wasn’t his best day, but it showed that the 49ers’ best asset is the one with the clipboard. The 49ers are a contender every year because of Shanahan. Going into this year, there are major injury questions at the team’s most important position. Is Brock Purdy healthy? Can Trey Lance finally live up to his draft slot? Then, there’s Sam Darnold. Analysts are actually saying that Shanahan has the ability to get competence out of Sam Darnold.
This is a player who had no career left. Now, analysts think Shanahan can turn his career around. This is how good this head coach is. He has the best game plans. His playbook is amazing. His assistant coaches constantly become head coaches. This is a head coach that exceeds the value of his players.
This is a rarity in today’s NFL. Most teams would be willing to fire the head coach for just about anything. However, the 49ers would legitimately be a bottom-feeder with the wrong coach. Now, they are an NFC contender.
28. Pete Carroll – Seattle Seahawks
Last season, Pete Carroll would have been quite high on this list. The Seattle Seahawks said goodbye to Russell Wilson, a player who led this franchise to its best run in history. They were handing the reigns to Geno Smith, a failed New York Jets draft pick that was just trying to find backup jobs. The Seahawks were expected to fight for a chance to draft Bryce Young. They ended up coming close, but not because of their own draft pick. It was the Broncos’ draft pick that was almost number one.
Carroll led the Seahawks to a surprise playoff run with an interesting roster that pushed teams every week. It wasn’t always pretty, but it was effective. Smith became a Pro Bowler. Kenneth Walker found a spot as a future superstar. The offense was rolling, ranking ninth in the league with 23.9 points per game. The defense was timely, recording 25 turnovers.
Give credit where credit is due, Carroll got the most out of this roster. They were supposed to be a bottom dweller, and he took them to the playoffs. Smith returned, and Carroll and the Seahawks brass built around him.
Will the wheels fall off this season? Maybe, but Carroll seems safe no matter what. After facing his career’s possible end last year, it seems like the 71-year-old’s time in the NFL will be up to him.
27. DeMeco Ryans – Houston Texans
DeMeco Ryans is the safest rookie head coach in the NFL. The Houston Texans know that this season is likely going very, very bad. They just need to see some semblance of growth. They don’t even have their own first-round pick this season, but the roster composition shows that the expectations are to stay respectable. Ryans can do that as a head coach.
He has a rookie quarterback in CJ Stroud, who will need time to get accustomed to the NFL. He’s playing with an offense that has Robert Woods as the top wide receiver. It’s a team that is missing talent at just about every position. Who is the best player on the Texans? It seems every team has a star to build around.
All the Texans stars are incredibly young. It’s Derek Stingley Jr. or Will Anderson on defense. It’s Stroud, Dameon Pearce, or John Metchie on offense. Those could be great players. None are there yet. And that’s why Ryans is safe as can be.
Well, that and a hefty contract. The Texans signed Ryans, despite his lack of experience, to a six-year contract. That contract is guaranteed. The Texans are not paying him for the next five years to coach for another team no matter how bad this season goes. The Texans could lose every game 100-0 and he would return.
26. Zac Taylor – Cincinnati Bengals
A lot of us were wrong about Zac Taylor. He was the butt of many jokes about how coaches were getting top jobs just from talking to Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay. Taylor had a rough start in Cincinnati. It was so rough, he still has a losing record overall in the regular season. A two and four-win season will do that to you.
Then, despite almost everyone thinking another coach would get the chance to lead Joe Burrow, Taylor led the Bengals all the way to the Super Bowl. He lost to the Rams, but it showed he was able to get the best out of this team. Since then, Ja’Marr Chase became one of the best wide receivers in football, the offense can beat just about anyone, and the Bengals are a premier team in the AFC.
Maybe some would see this differently if this wasn’t the Bengals, but they never fire coaches as it is. Marvin Lewis survived for years with mediocre results. Now they have a team that can actually win it all, something that’s never happened in Cincinnati.
Burrow likes his head coach, and the team seems to listen to his lead. He was able to win big games in the postseason, beating the Chiefs, Bills, and Titans on the road over the last two seasons. Nobody expected the Bengals to do this already. Taylor deserves some credit for that.
25. Shane Steichen – Indianapolis Colts
This is another rookie coach that has been signed for the long haul. While he doesn’t have the contract of DeMeco Ryans, the Indianapolis Colts are cognizant of his image, and Jim Irsay doesn’t want to quit on a coach after one year. So, they gave Steichen the same six-year deal as Ryan (although likely with less power overall).
Since moving to Indianapolis in 1984, the Colts have never had a coach fired after one season (not counting interim coaches). After the Jeff Saturday experiment, the Colts staff spent a long time finding the right hire. They eventually extended the job to Philadelphia Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen.
The Colts are building a foundation for the future. They took Anthony Richardson with the fourth-overall pick in the NFL Draft. They also signed Gardner Minshew, Steichen’s backup in Philadelphia, for a one-year deal that’s worth a maximum of $5 million. He’s only getting $3.5 million guaranteed. Minshew might start the season if Richardson needs time to get acquainted.
Steichen is a long-term hire. There is nothing short of a terrible scandal that would cause him to collect his paycheck elsewhere. For better or worse, he will be the Colts’ coach in 2024 and 2025 at the very least.
24. John Harbaugh – Baltimore Ravens
John Harbaugh is a hard nut to crack. While the Baltimore Ravens haven’t been further than the Divisional Round of the playoffs since winning Super Bowl XLVII in 2013, it seems like the Ravens know they have a good thing in John Harbaugh. There have been whispers of his contract status, but he signed a three-year contract extension just last year.
Harbaugh is getting his ace quarterback Lamar Jackson back after the Ravens signed him to a record contract this offseason. They also built a much better offense, signing Odell Beckham Jr. and drafting Zay Flowers. This should be a much better offense, especially if Jackson can stay healthy.
This is going to be a key year for Harbaugh and the Ravens. He has to show a little more than he’s shown in the past five years. He has to have playoff success. He can’t just make the playoffs, but he has to have success in the playoffs.
Nine of the 16 AFC teams have played in the AFC Championship Game in the past 10 years. The Ravens are one of seven teams that haven’t made it in the time frame. Is it AFC Championship or bust? No, but it’s AFC Championship or hot seat for sure.
23. Frank Reich – Carolina Panthers
Frank Reich is safe. Just because he is further down the list than Ryans and Streichen doesn’t mean he’s not safe. What it means is his contract isn’t nearly as safe as the other coaches. Reich was given just a four-year deal, according to reports. The Panthers are still recovering from the seven-year deal they gave to former Baylor head coach Matt Rhule. He didn’t even last three years, and he won just 11 games total.
Reich comes in with some NFL head coaching experience. He had an unsuccessful run in Indianapolis, but can he really be blamed for that? Reich’s QBs during his Colts tenure were Andrew Luck (one season), Jacoby Brissett, Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz, and Matt Ryan.
Reich was able to put up three winning seasons with this hodge podge of quarterbacks. Reich is still one of the better offensive minds in the league. He’s the man behind the Tom Brady duel in Super Bowl LII, making Nick Foles a household name.
The Panthers traded up for the first-overall pick in the NFL Draft, giving the Panthers another star under center in Bryce Young. The former Alabama gunner brings a dual-threat style to Carolina. The Panthers will give Reich time to build an offense around this kid.
22. Mike McDaniel – Miami Dolphins
Mike McDaniel feels like a hard one to peg as well, but the Miami Dolphins have to demand more after years worth of investments. Over the past two years, the Dolphins added Tyreek Hill, Jalen Ramsey, Bradley Chubb, David Long Jr., Jeff Wilson, Mike White, Chase Edmonds, Cedrick Wilson, Alec Ingold, Terron Armstead, and Raheem Mostert. There has been quite a bit of roster movement in Miami. Now, McDaniel has to do something with it.
This was already a good team. Tua Tagovailoa is very good when healthy. We’ll cover that in a moment. The Dolphins have a decent defense, with stars like Xavien Howard and Emmanuel Ogbah joining the newly-acquired veterans. Ramsey is the star that joined Miami this offseason, and the expectation is it would put the Dolphins over the top.
McDaniel is considered a good coach who has dealt with a bad situation. He did make dreadful decisions with Tagovailoa’s health last season, letting him play in games with clear concussion symptoms. He’s not a doctor, so he can’t be blamed for clearing his quarterback. However, sometimes a coach has to make the hard decision.
If McDaniel just allowed Tagovailoa to heal from early-season concussions, would he have him available in the playoff game against the Buffalo Bills? The Dolphins had no chance in that game, but with Tua, things would be different. There’s no room for what-ifs in football, but it can lead to questions about a coach’s ability to make long-term strategy moves if they make the wrong decision. McDaniel still has plenty of rope, but this year, he has to show he knows how to properly deal with injuries.
21. Sean McDermott – Buffalo Bills
This is another complicated team. The Buffalo Bills haven’t won the AFC East since Marv Levy’s departure in 1997. That is until Sean McDermott arrived. Now, he has them winning three-straight division titles. He grew Josh Allen into one of the premier quarterbacks in the NFL, and has them as one of the top offenses in the league, and the Bills are constantly one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl coming into the season.
That’s the real issue. Three teams have become the pinnacle of the AFC; the Chiefs, Bengals, and Bills. Two of those three teams have represented the AFC in the Super Bowl over the past three seasons. The Bills are the only team that hasn’t. In fact, the Bills failed to get to the AFC Championship Game two years in a row.
Will the Bills accept the team’s current status, as one of the premier teams but nowhere near “the” premier team in the NFL? That will define McDermott’s status.
To be fair, there can be only one champion. Saying goodbye to McDermott, clearly one of the top coaches in the league, because he can’t take the Bills to another level can go one of two ways. Either, the Bills find the coach to take them to the Super Bowl, or they fall back into that place where they are praying for a division title. Because of the risk involved, expect McDermott to get more than one chance to take the Bills over the next step.
20. Mike Tomlin – Pittsburgh Steelers
Mike Tomlin is and has been one of the top coaches in the league. He’s the second-longest tenured coach in the NFL behind Bill Belichick (wonder where he is now, aren’t you?). He took over for Bill Cowher in 2007, and he’s proven himself every year since. He’s never had a season under .500. How could the Steelers even think about letting a coach like that go?
There always seems to be at least a semblance of smoke coming from Tomlin’s seat every year. The Steelers might continue to have winning seasons, but they haven’t been true contenders for years. Still, his seat isn’t hot yet. He’s pretty safe as far as coaches go, but one bad season could spell the end for Tomlin.
The Steelers are dealing with a second-year quarterback in Kenny Pickett, but the offense looked stagnant last season. Diontae Johnson scored zero touchdowns. Najee Harris sort of lost his starting job to Jaylen Warren. That’s not to say there isn’t growth. George Pickens could be the next great wide receiver. The defense is still really good.
Who knows what the Steelers’ front office wants from this regime? Are they trying to be a championship-caliber team again? Realistically, they don’t have the roster for that. That isn’t Tomlin’s fault. He gets the most out of his players, and his message hasn’t worn thin despite being in that locker room for so long.
19. Brian Daboll – New York Giants
The only reason Brian Daboll is so low on this list is the risk that comes with this New York Giants roster. There is almost no way we see Daboll losing his job, but if Daniel Jones regresses from his career season, the Giants could pile on losses. They brought back just about everyone with some additions (Darren Waller, Parris Campbell, and Jameson Crowder) on offense. They also made some additions on defense, with cornerbacks Amani Oruwariye (free agency) and Deonte Banks (first-round pick) plus Bobby McCain (free agency) at safety.
This is a season where Giants fans want more. They had a taste of the postseason. They even won a game against the Minnesota Vikings. Can the Giants really go backward? This is still a very good division. The Cowboys and Eagles are at the top of the NFC standings, and the Commanders hope to be better.
The Giants have an interesting schedule this season. Their schedule ranks in the middle of the pack. There really is no excuse why the Giants shouldn’t improve on their 9-7-1 record.
So, what happens if they don’t? Would Daboll’s job even be considered? Our guess is no, but it all depends on how bad it looks along the way. If the Giants go 9-8 and lose a chance at the playoffs on a technicality or a tie-breaker, then Daboll is definitely back. What if they go 6-11, Daniel Jones regresses to eternity, and the future becomes a scary question mark? Well, that’s a different story.
18. Sean McVay – Los Angeles Rams
Sean McVay almost left the sidelines for the booth. That will always be a possibility. However, this list isn’t looking at how likely a coach will decide to continue their careers with their current team. It is specifically looking at how likely it is that a coach will be fired. Does it seem likely at all that McVay, who decided to make one more (at least) run with this roster would get fired by the Rams? He already brought a Super Bowl to the city of Los Angeles.
That was just over a year ago. Isn’t that insane? It seems like McVay won a Super Bowl years ago, but he was the defending champion just last year. There’s no way a coach who won a Super Bowl just two years prior is getting canned.
The Rams are an intriguing team. They still have Aaron Donald, Cooper Kupp, and Matthew Stafford. Those star veterans might be enough to get them into a playoff spot. Is that not the ceiling for the Rams team this year?
The Rams and Sean McVay probably don’t have a lot of years left in their relationship, but for this year, everything is gravy. McVay returned with plenty of notice so the Rams didn’t have to scurry to find a replacement then renege on those negotiations. Neither side burned any bridges, and that will lead to less drama, at least this season.
17. Doug Pederson – Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jacksonville Jaguars could probably live off the playoff win last year for at least a few months, but that’s not how the NFL works. After beating the Los Angeles Chargers in comeback fashion, the Jaguars come into this season with major expectations. Trevor Lawrence is now considered one of the best, if not the best young QB in the NFL. This is a team that is expected to win the AFC South.
Doug Pederson should be safe. However, losing this division could put him in a precarious position. The Titans, Texans, and Colts are all expected to be pretty bad. The Jaguars are expected to be the only good team. Barring something crazy from one of the division rivals, the Jaguars should walk away easily with a playoff spot.
See, this is where it gets complicated. The NFL is never what it looks like on paper. There are teams every year that wildly outdoes expectations. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that the Colts or Titans come out of nowhere and win this division.
If the Jaguars go backward with a roster full of this much talent, the ownership will be looking at Pederson with side eyes. It’s not exactly division or bust, but with how easy it is on paper, it’s pretty close.
16. Bill Belichick – New England Patriots
Well, this is awkward. The winningest active head coach could be looking for his next adventure after this season. There are so many rumors saying the New England Patriots are looking at what life could be after Bill Belichick.
While it’s surprising because one would think six Super Bowls affords you a lifelong contract, Robert Kraft and Belichick haven’t seen eye to eye for a long time. It won’t surprise anyone if Belichick’s succession plan plays out worse than Logan Roy’s. He probably wants one of his sons to take the legacy of the Patriots, but unlike an HBO show, real-life football teams demand experience and a track record to take over the top job.
Beyond the succession plan, the Patriots haven’t been that good. Mac Jones went from second in Rookie of the Year voting to one of the worst starters in the league in one season. Putting Matt Patricia, a defensive coach, in charge of the offense was one of the worst decisions in all of football last year. It cost the Patriots a year of offensive development.
The Patriots made right some of its mistakes, including hiring Bill O’Brien to take over the offense. It still doesn’t make up for the seasons of failure that’s following Belichick. Brady left three seasons ago, and the Patriots have had two losing campaigns since then. Belichick can’t afford to make it three, or he will be looking for the best opening eight months from now.
15. Dan Campbell – Detroit Lions
This one might surprise some, but Dan Campbell is not as safe as some may think. Expectations change job security. The Detroit Lions are expected to win the division for the first time in recent memory. The Vikings are expected to have a down year. Green Bay is trying to know what life is like without Aaron Rodgers. Chicago was just the worst team in the NFL. This is the Lions’ division to win.
A step in the wrong direction after the Lions put so many assets into being a winner this offseason looks bad on the head coach and the head coach alone. Jared Goff is what he is. He could turn into a pumpkin any second. The offense could sputter with the wrong plan around new players. Amon Ra St. Brown could get injured again. The committee in the backfield might stall everyone.
Campbell is a loveable coach who gets everyone motivated. That was the main point last season. He got the most out of players fighting for relevance. Now they are relevant. Can Campbell keep them motivated through that noise? There are so many people and analysts jumping on the Lions bandwagon. Will the weight of that be too much?
This is unlikely. It is even improbable. However, it’s just as possible as Bill Belichick losing his job. Campbell only has so much clout after beating expectations last season. He didn’t even make the playoffs. That’s because the team started 1-6. Can Campbell avoid another terrible start? Can he survive another terrible start? Probably, but if he isn’t able to win more than eight games, there will be questions arising in the Motor City.
14. Matt LaFleur – Green Bay Packers
You see that line above this slide? That is the clear Line of Demarcation between “not getting fired” and “I could see it happening.” Matt LaFleur is probably not on the hot seat right now. The Green Bay Packers are looking toward a new era after trading Aaron Rodgers to the New York Jets. They want to see if Jordan Love can lead a very young offense to the promised land.
However, one thing that hasn’t been discussed is the fact that Matt LaFleur hasn’t had much success with the Packers relative to the expectations. He brought them to a number-one seed and an NFC Championship in his first season as coach. He matched that record and loss in the NFC Championship in Year 2. In Year 3, he was one-and-done in the playoffs, and he didn’t even take his Packers into the postseason last season.
If the Packers are atrocious this season (which seems unlikely but possible), then the management might seek a new direction. The Packers did just sign LaFluer to a contract extension last season, but we’ve seen that isn’t necessarily a guarantee he can’t be fired.
This is still really unlikely. LaFleur has done good things in Green Bay, and a down season is kind of expected. The Packers know they have to recover from the loss of a Hall of Fame QB. They’ve been here before. It will be touch and go this season, but LaFleur seems like he’s basically safe… until he isn’t.
13. Arthur Smith – Atlanta Falcons
Many believe Arthur Smith has a hotter seat than he actually has. The Atlanta Falcons’ head coach was given a bum roster when he arrived from Tennessee, and he’s starting to see results. The offensive mind has had back-to-back seven-win seasons despite throwing Marcus Mariota out there under center. It hasn’t been better, with Desmond Ridder the likely starter this year.
The Falcons made the interesting move by going for a running back with their top-10 pick in the NFL Draft. Bijan Robinson is a great player and could change the face of the offense, but nobody is really expecting this Falcons roster to take a precipitous step forward. The NFC South is very bad, so there’s a chance the Falcons can back into the playoffs. However, does anyone really look at this season as anything besides another development year?
The Falcons are slow playing the rebuild. When moving on from Matt Ryan, the Falcons knew it would take a little time to really find its groove. Ridder is not the type of quarterback who can win championships. He can keep the ship afloat, but are they really going to clean house in the coaching staff if the Falcons win around the same again?
Nobody is in the room with Arthur Blank and GM Terry Fontenot, so it’s hard to know how hot the seat of Smith is. Maybe the heat is on because the Falcons went on a spending spree this offseason. Putting $233 million in contracts puts the spotlight on a team. Still, Smith’s seat isn’t as hot as some say.
12. Matt Eberflus – Chicago Bears
The Chicago Bears are in an interesting spot. After falling into the number-one overall pick, they used that leverage to build a better roster around Justin Fields. After a rough start to his career, it looks like Fields might be a true weapon. His passing still leaves a ton to be desired, but his running ability might be the best in the league. That says a lot when this is a league with Lamar Jackson.
The Bears added a ton to a terrible offense. DJ Moore came over in the trade that send the first-overall pick to the Carolina Panthers. D’Onta Foreman and Travis Homer will replace David Montgomery’s production in the backfield. Robert Tonyan adds a veteran presence at the tight-end position. The offensive line went through an overall, with first-round pick Darnell Wright and free agent Nate Davis solidifying the right side.
There is more talent on the offense. Now, it’s time to find a better game plan to fit the new pieces. Fields doesn’t need to run for his life as long as the linemen hold up. He will have open receivers with Moore and a returning Chase Claypool and Darnell Mooney. There is enough talent at receiver to put something together on a play-by-play basis.
If the Bears are once again one of the worst teams in the league, it will be hard to argue for Eberflus to keep his job. Teams can only bottom out for so long. There is only one Zac Taylor, and if he wasn’t in Cincinnati, he’s probably back on McVay’s staff. There must be some serious movement in the standings to keep this seat cold.
11. Mike Vrabel – Tennessee Titans
The Tennessee Titans feel like the one team who could take the biggest nose dive in the NFL. The future at the quarterback position is probably in the hands of Will Levis, but for now, Ryan Tannehill is still the guy. With turmoil starting the season under center, it doesn’t seem like it’s going to be a smooth transition. The one reason the Titans might be able to make this all work is head coach Mike Vrabel.
Vrabel has been a great head coach since he took over in Tennessee in 2018. He was only a defensive coordinator for one year in Houston before he was given the top job in Tennessee. It worked out, as Vrabel has taken the Titans to the playoffs three times, and even got the number-one seed in an AFC that still had Patrick Mahomes.
Vrabel is in a strange position, coming off his first losing record as head coach. Now, things might get worse. The Titans are hoping some of their star replacements work out, but the wide receiver depth is not there. It’s Treylon Burks and pretty much nothing else. Also, Derrick Henry has to be peak superstar if the Titans are doing anything. That seems unlikely at this juncture of his career.
Can Vrabel survive another losing season? After he was named the Coach of the Year for the 2021 season, he signed an extension. That might make him safe this year, but the team has been on a downward trajectory since he signed that. It all depends on how bad this season goes to see how hot Vrabel’s seat gets.
10. Jonathan Gannon – Arizona Cardinals
This is by far the lowest rookie head coach on this list. There is just a strange vibe in Arizona. Kyler Murray seems like he could miss most or all of this season. The roster might be one of the worst in the NFL, and they hired a defensive coordinator who had to fight hot-seat rumors prior to last season.
Now, Jonathan Gannon has to take a roster devoid of star players and compete in the NFC West. Not only that, but they have to face the NFC East and AFC North this season. They do get the Houston Texans and Chicago Bears since they have a last-place schedule, but that’s the only positive coming out of this. Gannon has a very low ceiling based on schedule alone.
Don’t be surprised if Gannon cannot hold this team together through trials and tribulations. Budda Baker already asked for a trade. More requests will come if the Cards can’t prove they can do better. They got nothing for DeAndre Hopkins. This is bad headline after bad headline.
Jonathan Gannon joined a dysfunctional franchise. The Cardinals gave Kliff Kingsbury and Steve Keim extensions, and then the owners eventually fired them both very early in those terms. Maybe there’s an out clause we’re not aware of, but it just seems like a major mistake. Maybe the fact that the Cardinals are still paying Kingsbury for a long time could save Gannon, but this is expected to be the worst team in football. If the Cardinals win one game, would anyone be floored if Gannon gets the boot?
9. Robert Saleh – New York Jets
Sometimes history does repeat itself. A Green Bay Packers legend plays the retirement card with the franchise. He gains literally hundreds of headlines with his antics. Eventually, the talent is outweighed by the headache, and the New York Jets come calling to take on the services of a former MVP. Aaron Rodgers followed the footsteps of Brett Favre, taking over the second team in MetLife Stadium.
Robert Saleh looked like a really good hire in his first year with the Jets. After four seasons as the 49ers’ defensive coordinator, Saleh was given a chance to run his own team. The Jets hired Saleh after a few decades of turmoil. The Jets came into the season with 10 straight seasons of playoff misses. It’s now 12 since Saleh missed the postseason in his first two seasons.
The Jets cannot make it 13 and expect to bring back the coaching staff. Rodgers was brought in to take this team to another level. He isn’t spending the twilight of his career in New Jersey so he can compete with the Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots for second place in the AFC East. The expectation is to compete for a title. This is a great team talent-wise. If they fix the one major issue, the quarterback, and don’t make the playoffs, Saleh is toast.
By the way, the one underrated aspect of the Brett Favre saga in New York was it cost Eric Mangini his job. The collapse forced the Jets to hit the reset button, bringing on the Rex Ryan era. Most Jets fans would welcome a run like that again.
8. Kevin Stefanski – Cleveland Browns
This is where things take a serious turn towards “hot seat.” The next eight coaches are in serious jeopardy in 2023. Kevin Stefanski’s Cleveland Browns put all the chips on the Deshaun Watson table. It was a bad decision, but it was the decision the team made. Now, Stefanski has to make it work. It is his sole job to make Watson the best possible quarterback.
That didn’t work out last season. After more than a year off due to sexual assault allegations, Watson looked lost at times on the field. Maybe he struggled learning the system or had serious rust. Is that something Watson can overcome? Will he bounce back and take the Browns to the playoffs?
That is not only the expectation of Stefanski; that is the demand. The Browns make the playoffs or Stefanski no longer is the head coach. It’s that simple. It’s playoffs or bust for this coaching staff.
The Browns made some additions this offseason to make life a little easier for Stefanski. He can attain his goals thanks to the additions of Za’Darius Smith and Delvin Tomlinson. This is a much better roster, but it’s still a hard division in a brutal AFC. Sure, they added the seventh playoff spot a few years ago, but the AFC can stake claim to 10 to 12 deserving playoff teams. The Browns will still have to fight for a spot, and it will be on the shoulders of Watson and Stefanski to secure it.
7. Ron Rivera – Washington Commanders
Ron Rivera might be higher on a lot of lists, and that makes sense. The Washington Commanders’ head coach was hired in 2020. The former long-time Panthers head coach took this job just a month after he was fired. The Commanders were looking for stability at a time when the franchise was anything but. Since then, he’s had marginal results, going 22-27-1 in three years. He was 8-8-1 last season, his best in the Nation’s Capital.
Now, the Commanders are starting the season with Sam Howell under center. That’s definitely a choice. The Commanders have to show progress this year, or Rivera will find himself in a similar situation. When he was fired, new Panthers owner David Tippett said he wanted to take the franchise in a different direction. Now, the Commanders are looking at new owners in Josh Harris’ group.
Luckily for Rivera, Harris likes stability in his teams. He usually is patient and lets his front office make the decisions. He’s done that for the Philadelphia 76ers and New Jersey Devils. However, it looks like Washington’s front office is already looking at who comes next.
The Commanders hired former Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy to be the offensive coordinator. Now, the DC team has a coach in place if they decide to fire Rivera. Still, there are definitely other coaches who have a hotter seat than Rivera.
6. Kevin O’Connell – Minnesota Vikings
What is the goal for Minnesota this season? Do they think this is a Super Bowl contender? It’s definitely a division contender after Aaron Rodgers left for the AFC East. However, the Vikings seem to still be missing a lot of what makes a contender. They have Kirk Cousins under center, which is fine. However, it’s literally just fine. Nothing more. The defense is quite good, but it’s not one of the best in the league. They have the best wide receiver in Justin Jefferson and pieces around him, but that is the only discernable advantage the team has over other NFC powerhouses.
It will come down to coaching to see where the Vikings go this year. Everyone has jumped on the Lions bandwagon, and that’s led to them being named the favorites in the division. That probably doesn’t work for Vikings brass, who still believe this is a contender.
This is only Kevin O’Connell’s second year as head coach of the Vikings, and he led them to the playoffs in his first season. However, they got embarrassed by the New York Giants in the first round.
O’Connell was hired to get the Vikings further than his predecessor. O’Connell definitely had the regular season success, but the playoff dud now has his seat hot. This is a volatile situation, and he can fix it pretty quickly. If he goes 4-1 to start the season, his seat will be ice-cold. If it goes the other way, his seat could be non-existent.
5. Josh McDaniels – Las Vegas Raiders
Josh McDaniels is in a familiar position. Things started great in Las Vegas, but he didn’t even make it out of his first season in black and silver without some serious animosity from the fanbase. Now, in Year 2, his seat is once again on fire. This feels just like it did when he was with the Denver Broncos.
McDaniels built this roster into what he wanted, letting Derek Carr go in free agency, building around Davonte Adams and Josh Jacobs, and naming Jimmy Garoppolo as the new starter. However, it looks like Garoppolo can’t pass his physical. If that’s really the case, the Raiders are in trouble.
Will McDaniels get a pass if they lose out on Jimmy G? Will they look beyond what he can do with Brian Hoyer as the starter? The Raiders would have to get another quarterback if the Garoppolo thing doesn’t work out.
Either way, McDaniels is coaching for his job this season. Adams is at the end of his prime, and they just traded away Darren Waller. McDaniels is able to build the team he wants, but it has to lead to wins. They have to compete for a playoff spot this season if he wants to stay on the West Coast.
4. Todd Bowles – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The post-Bruce Arians era in Tampa Bay is going terribly. The Bucs barely made the playoffs in Todd Bowles’ first year in charge. It went so bad, Tom Brady retired for real. Byron Leftwich, who looked like a lockdown head coaching candidate the year prior, was fired after a bad season offensively. With major changes coming for an aging roster, Bowles has one more chance to prove he’s a quality head coach.
It might not be fair to judge him on this season. Brady retires, and now they have to replace him with Baker Mayfield. However, this offense has aging stars looking to win. Mike Evans wants to win again. Chris Godwin wants to win again. Ryan Jensen, Tristan Wirfs, and Russel Gage make up a quality offense.
The defense still has stars everywhere, and that’s Bowles bread and butter. He is a defense-first coach, so maybe the Bucs can steal this division again with quality defensive performances. That is what can save him from the unemployment line again. However, his seat is scorching hot.
If the Bucs start the season 1-3 or 2-4, expect a move to be made. Jason Licht is holding onto this GM job for dear life, so he can’t afford to make a mistake by holding onto a coach for too long. The Bucs are in a transition period, but there are still many stars on the roster. This shouldn’t be a team that misses the playoffs, but it very well might. And that spells the end of Bowles as a head coach.
3. Dennis Allen – New Orleans Saints
Dennis Allen was going to get every chance to make it work with the New Orleans Saints. He was hand-picked by Sean Payton to take his place when he went on hiatus. He went 7-10 in his first season as head coach, dealing with an injury report that looked like a CVS receipt.
Allen tried to win games with Andy Dalton under center. He pretty much gave up on the idea that Taysom Hill could be an actual NFL QB full-time. Jameis Winston lost his chance to show he still had high upside. The offense had its moments, with Chris Olave looking like a star at wide receiver. Alvin Kamara is still one of the top weapons at his position.
Yet, this has destruction possibility this season. The Saints solved their QB issues by signing Derek Carr, but how good is Carr actually? Can he carry a team? Does he need to be in New Orleans? It’s a strange team that might be without Kamara who could be suspended. That changes how this offense runs, and more could be on Carr’s shoulders to succeed.
The Saints need to win the division, or Allen might be toast. This is a terrible division with four teams that wouldn’t win any other division in the league. The Saints had a signature win against the Eagles in Week 17, but they were without Jalen Hurts. This also came after a 4-9 start to the season. Allen won’t survive another dreadful start, and the Saints will be one of the more intriguing openings if it does work out that way.
2. Mike McCarthy – Dallas Cowboys
If the Dallas Cowboys head coaching job wasn’t in the top-five hottest seats in the league, it wouldn’t feel right. Jerry Jones is known to lean heavily on his coaches, and he could fire them at any time. However, he seems to have grown a liking for Mike McCarthy. The Cowboys have fallen under expectations, watching the Philadelphia Eagles pass them as direct rivals. Yet, McCarthy is coming back for another season.
This one will be different, and it will directly impact how the Cowboys look at McCarthy as a coach. He let Kellen Moore go as offensive coordinator. Moore was considered one of the best offensive minds in football, and he immediately got a new job in Los Angeles. He replaced Moore with Brian Schottenheimer.
McCarthy says he wants to run the ball more, although he hasn’t signed a decent backup after placing the franchise tag on Tony Pollard and letting Ezekiel Elliott go. Pollard fractured his fibula and suffered a high ankle injury in the playoffs. This isn’t even early in the season. This was just a few months ago. So, if Pollard can’t go, the Cowboys will show off their new offense with a running style with Malik Davis, Ronald Jones, and rookie Deuce Vaughn? That seems like a bad strategy.
The Cowboys have stars at most positions. Dak Prescott can still be a star QB. Ceedee Lamb could become one of the best receivers in the NFL this season. The offensive line has recovered from a short disappointing spell to be another great unit. DeMarcus Lawrence, Micah Parsons, and Trevon Diggs give the Cowboys stars at every level of the defense. If they can’t make a move to true contenders in 2023, then it might be time for a different coach to take a crack.
1. Brandon Staley – Los Angeles Chargers
Brandon Staley is the luckiest man in the NFL. How he is getting another chance to take the next step with this roster is beyond comprehension. He blew a 27-point lead to the Jacksonville Jaguars in the Wild Card Round. This wasn’t a loss to a veteran like Patrick Mahomes who had been there before. This was the playoff debut of Trevor Lawrence and Doug Pederson’s first year in the playoffs since he was let go by the Eagles.
Despite this and a laundry list of other bad coaching decisions, Staley is still in Los Angeles. His margin needs to be razor-thin. The Chargers have one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL. Justin Herbert will only stay with an organization that’s not doing everything it can to win for so long. We’re sure he has a great relationship with Staley and that’s why he is still here, but losing ruins all.
Staley will not survive a three-game losing streak this season without a ridiculous start. The Chargers have an interesting first two months of the schedule and could easily start 3-3. Would Chargers brass accept that? The Chargers should be one of the top teams, with stars beyond Herbert in Keenan Allen, Austin Eckeler, Joey Bosa, and Derwin James.
Why isn’t this one of the top teams in the league? It’s more than just sitting in the same division as Patrick Mahomes. There is something inherently wrong with the Chargers, and it’s the coach’s job to fix it. If he can’t, he needs to go. They just so happen to have Kellen Moore running the offense, what seems like a seamless transition to interim head coach.