The Miami Heat were three wins away from the most improbable NBA championship of all time. Now, Erik Spoelstra looks to pen a compelling sequel.
The Miami Heat finished last season as the No. 8 seed, a 44-win team scraping the bottom of the barrel when it came to postseason expectations. Well, the Heat made a run — not only through the first round but all the way to the NBA Finals. Jimmy Butler went berserk, Caleb Martin achieved temporary stardom, and the seas of a wayward Eastern Conference parted.
Denver handedly ended Miami’s run in the championship series, but not before the Heat established high expectations for the 2023-24 season. Anything short of another Finals appearance could be viewed as a failure, or at the very least a sign of regression.
It’s easy to forget how uneven the Heat’s season was. Miami went on a torrid shooting streak in the playoffs, but 3-point shooting was not a team strength in the regular season. Butler has always been capable of heroic performances on the big stage, but Caleb Martin went from a role player to one vote shy of conference finals MVP. That simply does not happen regularly.
It will take a lot of luck, effort, and maybe a Damian Lillard trade for the Heat to recreate the magic of last postseason. Miami lost starting point guard Gabe Vincent in free agency. Butler is a year older and Dame is by no means a guarantee. Tyler Herro, who has been involved in trade rumors all summer, will be asked to lock in and commit to a starring role on the perimeter. Martin probably won’t reach the same heights as he did in the postseason. There’s a strong chance the Heat simply underwhelm in the new year.
That said, it’s now certifiably impossible to count out any team coached by Erik Spoelstra. Especially if that team employs Jimmy Butler. The Heat have a pretty concrete starting five in advance of the regular season (Kyle Lowry, Tyler Herro, Jimmy Butler, Caleb Martin, Bam Adebayo), but Spo has never been afraid of midseason changes and the Heat have several interesting depth pieces who could break into more prominent roles.
Miami Heat player who could break into starting lineup: 3. Nikola Jovic
The Heat acquired Kevin Love after the trade deadline last season and started him in 17 of 21 appearances. A lack of size was problematic for Miami all season and it crept up in the playoffs too, especially in the Finals. That said, Love’s days as an NBA starter are probably over. Nikola Jovic, meanwhile, is at the front end of what promises to be a long and productive NBA career.
The 20-year-old played sparsely in his rookie season, but he looked great in Summer League and there’s reason to believe he will carve out a consistent role in year two. He has been a centerpiece in Damian Lillard trade hypotheticals all summer, but assuming no deal transpires — or, at the very least, no deal transpires with him in it — he has a real path to the starting five.
At 6-foot-10, Jovic would supply more size in the frontcourt next to Bam Adebayo. He could either usurp Caleb Martin or bump Martin to the three and Jimmy Butler to the two, essentially upsizing the entire lineup. Kyle Lowry’s days as a full-time starter are numbered and Tyler Herro has ample experience in a sixth-man role. After Miami’s deep postseason run with Herro on the sidelines, it wouldn’t exactly boggle the mind if Spoelstra went back to using Herro as an overqualified second-unit spark plug.
While not a proven defender, Jovic is light on his feet with enough length to deter drives and muck up passing lanes. The Heat love to switch screens and Jovic would fit schematically. On the offensive end, he’s a competent 3-point shooter with a wide array of ancillary skills that excite the fanbase. Jovic is comfortable putting the ball on the floor, driving the lane, and making passes on the move. He’s not quite jumbo point guard material, but he profiles as tremendous connective tissue in the frontcourt so long as the 3s fall with some level of consistency.
Miami Heat player who could break into starting lineup: 2. Duncan Robinson
Duncan Robinson was a full-time starter for three years before Tyler Herro’s promotion last season. He struggled mightily in his reserve role, appearing in only 42 games and averaging the fewest minutes of his career (16.5) since his rookie season. Robinson, known almost exclusively for his 3-point shot, simply could not get enough 3s to fall. His 32.8 percent success rate made it virtually impossible for Miami to keep him on the floor.
Naturally, Robinson was back to his old self and then some once the playoffs arrived. Call it Heat Culture, call it witchcraft, call it belated positive regression, call it whatever. Robinson looked very much like the player who signed a five-year, $90 million deal during Miami’s run to the Finals.
Whether or not Robinson can carry that momentum into the new season is yet to be seen, but the Heat are still paying Robinson a pretty penny and would no doubt like him to be a regular contributor. In theory, he’s the exact kind of volume shooter the offense needs more of. Miami couldn’t stretch defenses in the regular season. Robinson is a genuine force of gravity on the perimeter, crisscrossing through screens and doing his best J.J. Redick impression off the ball.
Whether the Heat decide to bench Lowry or move Herro back to his sixth-man role, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Spoelstra call on Robinson for starting minutes in 2023-24. He’s comfortable with the offense and his constant movement makes him a natural fit next to Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler, both of whom operate primarily inside the arc.
Defense is the primary drawback with Robinson. He’s 6-foot-6, and therefore more competitive than Herro, but Robinson lacks the core strength and agility to defend high-level playmakers on the perimeter. He’s best stashed away from the action as much as possible. Miami can only afford so many players of that variety on the floor at once, so Robinson does limit Spo’s optionality a little bit.
Miami Heat player who could break into starting lineup: 1. Josh Richardson
Josh Richardson spent the first four years of his career with Miami and spent the last two years as a full-time starter. He has bounced around a lot in the years since, first to Philadelphia as part of the Jimmy Butler trade, then to Dallas, Boston, San Antonio, and New Orleans. Now he’s back with Miami, the team he played his best basketball with.
A lot has changed for the Heat and for Richardson since he departed in 2019, but it’s not hard to get nostalgic over the player we once thought Richardson would become. He averaged 16.6 points and 4.1 assists in his final go-around with Miami. He looked the part of a potential two-way star, or at least a high-end starter.
His career has since gone south, but Spoelstra understands what makes Richardson tick — maybe better than any other coach. The Heat frequently extract maximum value from flawed, mismatched pieces. Richardson remains a sturdy perimeter defender and he can still hit enough 3s to boost the offense (36.5 percent on 4.5 attempts per game last season). He’s not without his share of flaws, but the Heat are short on quality perimeter defense outside of Butler, Martin, and the occasional Lowry flop. Richardson can lock in and handle difficult on-ball assignments. His motor runs hot and the Heat need someone to chase guards around, especially when Butler is going half-speed in the regular season.
Richardson is not a point guard — please stop trying to make PG Richardson happen, it’s not going to happen — but the Heat have enough ball-handling power between Butler and Herro to credibly favor Richardson over Lowry in the guard rotation. That would allow Lowry to set the table for the second unit and lead lineups without Butler, which is potentially the best setup at this stage of his career.
There’s a chance Richardson’s heyday is long gone and he’s simply not reliable enough offensively to warrant a significant role. If any team can unlock the old magic, however, it’s the team that unlocked it in the first place. Spoelstra should be able to get Richardson bought into the correct role and style of play.