NFL win totals are one of the most popular things to bet on during the NFL season. They give fans a baseline to judge their season’s off of, but sometimes the projections are way off.
Certain lines are either too low or too high, meaning you can find value on an alternate line. These are great if you want to double down on your stance of a team headed for a nightmare season or put all of your stock into a team exceeding expectations.
The mountain is higher for these teams to climb, but the payout is bigger if they reach it. With all that said, let’s dive into three alternate win totals that you NEED to bet heading into this season.
Best Alternate Win Totals/(original win totals)
- Bears UNDER 5.5 (+120)/UNDER 6.5 (-195)
- Ravens OVER 10.5 (+135)/OVER 9.5 (-160)
- Giants UNDER 6 (+175)/UNDER 7 (-110)
Bears UNDER 5.5 Wins (+120)
In my eyes, the Bears are going to be in contention for the worst team in the league. They have arguably the worst wide receiving corps in the league, still have issues on the offensive line and have a young quarterback that still needs a lot of reps.
According to Football Outsiders, the Bears were 24th in total DVOA last year and 26th in offensive DVOA. The floor for them isn’t high. They needed a lot of improvements during the offseason and didn't address it at all, especially by trading away Khalil Mack.
The NFC North will be more competitive than expected, but the Bears will be late to that party as well.
Ravens OVER 10.5 Wins (+135)
I’m extremely high on the Ravens this season. They are once again healthy and have one of the best quarterbacks to run the offense. Baltimore – even being decimated by injuries – finished with 8 wins last season. If you give the Ravens an MVP at quarterback, help on defense and another good season from Mark Andrews, anything is possible.
The Bengals won the AFC North with 10 wins last season. It’s going to take more than that number to get the division crown this time, and the Ravens are primed to do it.
Baltimore was 6-2 before Jackson went down. If he’s healthy, I love this line.
Giants UNDER 6 Wins (+175)
The Giants, while not as talent-deficient as the Bears – still have a long way to go before they are competent again. New York will likely finish last in the division, losing several games to the Cowboys, Eagles and Giants. Even with the easiest schedule in the league, the Giants have more questions than answers right now.
Is Daniel Jones going to stay healthy… or stop turning the ball over?
Is Saquon Barkley going to look like a solid back?
Will the defense take a step forward?
Right now, I'm so unsure about what the Giants have to offer, so fading them for the season feels right.
You can find Donnavan Smoot’s full betting record here.