3 Best NFL Teams to Bet the OVER on This Season
Betting on the OVER/UNDER in the NFL is one of the most tricky prospects because a team's O/U record is usually not reflected in their overall record. It's also not predicated on how good their offense or defense are overall, but rather how Vegas views their prospects of scoring and then whether that team outperforms it.
This NFL season is no different. The three teams with the best over/under record have three of the worst overall records in the NFL. And two of them have run-first offenses. Not what you'd expect from an O/U juggernaut.
Regardless, numbers don't lie and these are the three best O/U teams in the NFL.
Cleveland Browns (7-2-1)
The Browns seemingly have nothing going for them to be the best OVER team in the NFL. They're a run-first team. Their starting QB is suspended until next week. They play in a low-scoring division. Yet, here we are.
After starting the year with low O/U numbers, Vegas has caught up on the fact that the Browns defense stinks this year and has raised the line above 49.5 their last two games. The OVER still hit.
The Browns get a low total against the Bucs this week and they're underdogs. Well, guess what? The OVER is 4-1-1 in games where the Browns are underdogs.
Detroit Lions (7-3)
Now, the Lions make more sense as an OVER bettor's best friend. They have the eighth-highest scoring offense in the NFL and the 32nd ranked scoring defense. They gain the sixth most yards per play in the NFL and give up, again, the highest yards per play in the NFL. This all adds up to high-scoring games.
The OVER was 4-0 to start the season for the Lions before the UNDER hit in three-of-four. Well, the Lions bounced back with two straight OVER hits. This week they have their highest total of the season, 54.5 against the Bills. Well, the Lions are 2-0 in games where the O/U was 50 or more points.
Chicago Bears (7-4)
Another team you wouldn't think would be good at hitting the OVER, but since Justin Fields started his epic run, so too have the Bears OVER bettors.
The OVER has hit in five straight Bears games as they have scored nearly 30 points per game during that stretch. Fields is dealing with a shoulder injury which could keep him out this week and the Bears are also playing the Jets, who have Mike White starting at QB. The O/U is set appropriately low and I'm staying away from this bet until we know Fields' availability.