Betsided

Best College Football Betting Trends for Week 3 (History Says Don't Trust Florida, Texas A&M)

By Reed Wallach

Sep 10, 2022; Gainesville, Florida, USA; Florida Gators quarterback Anthony Richardson (15) throws
Sep 10, 2022; Gainesville, Florida, USA; Florida Gators quarterback Anthony Richardson (15) throws / Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
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Week 2 was full of upsets and chaos across the college football landscape, so how should we process that information and apply it to the Week 3 slate.

There are plenty of intriguing spots on the Week 3 college football slate that are going to draw the eye of many bettors. Here at BetSided we went through the historical databases to see if there are any play on or play against situations for teams on Saturday.

Trends are not the end all be all, but they can help you finalize some wagers and are also some neat bar conversation starters. Here are a handful we found for you on the Week 3 slate.

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Are Bounce Back Spots Real?

Historically, bounce back spots aren't a gimmie. Teams that are off of a loss as a favorite of 3.5 points or more and are favored by 3.5 or more again the following week tend to struggle for bettors.

Since 2013, teams in this situation are 217-225-7, which would cost bettors a ton when you factor in the -110 vig you are typically paying on the spread.

Most bettors expect a team like Texas A&M or Florida to bounce back strong after a disheartening loss, but it's no layup when that is likely being factored into the closing line.

Teams that fit this system to bet ON: California, New Mexico State, Georgia Southern, Florida Atlantic, South Florida, Nevada

Are High Totals Going Over or Under?

Totals that opened below 70, but were bet above 70 actually stay under the number more times than not.

Since 2012, games that fit the parameters above go under 67-52-1, north of 55%. Most bettors try to chase the steam and get on the likely shootout, but most of these games actually fall short of expectations.

Games that fit the UNDER trend: SMU vs. Maryland, Fresno State vs. USC,

College Football Week 3 Trends

  • Air Force is 32-40 ATS as a favorite over the last 10 seasons
  • Auburn is 12-6 against the spread (ATS) as a home underdog dating back to 2011, 10-8 straight up (SU)
  • Georgia is 13-3 ATS as a double digit road favorite under Kirby Smart
  • Teams that are off a win as a underdog of 14 points or more and are double digit favorites are 22-14 ATS (Appalachian State)
  • Syracuse is 17-12-1 against the spread (ATS) as a home underdog over the last 10 seasons
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