It’s a new week and a new month, which gives us an opportunity to turn over a page of our longest slump of the season in our “Daily Dinger” home run prop selections.
After Sunday’s picks of Los Angeles Dodgers stars Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman failed to capitalize with a massive total at Coors Field in Colorado, we’re looking in a different direction tonight; focusing on three players in very ideal hitting conditions with great pitching matchups.
Here's our three favorite home run props for Monday’s MLB slate with the top odds posted from their respective sportsbooks below:
Best Home Run Picks Today
- Pete Alonso (+250) - FanDuel Sportsbook
- Eugenio Suárez (+450) - PointsBet
- Jose Altuve (+600) - PointsBet
Pete Alonso (+250) - New York Mets at Washington Nationals
Alonso and the Mets have a beautiful matchup on Monday against Patrick Corbin and the Washington Nationals.
Corbin has allowed 18 homers so far this season and is coming off a start where he gave up six runs in 0.2 innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers. So, Corbin is coming into this start about as bad as you could.
Alonso has crushed Corbin in his career, hitting .364/.488/.788 in 33 at bats, picking up 12 hits, two doubles and four home runs. He’s also been red hot since the All-Star break, hitting .414 with a pair of homers in eight games.
Alonso is a no-brainer tonight. – Peter Dewey
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.
Eugenio Suárez (+450) - Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees
Most bettors will look to target Yankees hitters against Mariners soft-tossing lefty Marco Gonzales for their home run props tonight, and frankly I don’t blame them.
But his opponent on the mound, Yankees right-hander Domingo Germán has been giving up dingers left and right since returning to the rotation.
Germán leads the slate by a wide margin in the HR/9 department (3.52) compared to the second-worst option in Red Sox right-hander Nathan Eovaldi (1.99 HR/9), and seven pitchers ahead of Gonzales (1.35).
So why Suárez? For starters, his reverse splits have been better as a power hitter vs. right-handers this year; clubbing 14 of his 16 home runs against righties. He’s also put up his best isolated power (ISO) and weighted-runs-created plus (wRC+) on the road vs. left-handers this year.
This sets up everything you look for in betting a home run pick: great pitching matchup, ideal ballpark and conditions, and value on the board. – Ben Heisler
Follow all of Ben’s betting plays in real-time HERE!
Jose Altuve (+500) - Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros
Nathan Eovaldi gets the start for the Red Sox today against the Astros. He’s giving up an average of 2.0 home runs per nine innings, and has allowed a combined 16 earned runs in his last three starts. If you’re going to bet on someone to hit a home run, picking a Houston Astro is probably a good look.
I’ll back Jose Altuve to hit his 20th dinger of the season. He has already hit one against the Red Sox this season, and the last time Eovaldi faced the Astros, he gave up five home runs.
Altuve’s OPS goes up from .779 on the road, to .968 at home. So, with this game taking place in Houston, Altuve should have an edge.
Even if Eovaldi survives his start, the Red Sox bullpen has been giving up 1.2 home runs per nine innings since July 1st, which ranks 19th in the Majors.-- Iain MacMillan
You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.