Today is my good boy Kemba's third Gotcha Day! Three years ago, I found him in a dog shelter, he wrapped his long neck around me and it was a wrap.
In Kemba's honor, I'm ready to cash a massive MLB parlay today so he can get all the treats he deserves this weekend.
He's a big fan of these expensive cakes at a nearby dog bakery, so the pressure is on. Using odds from WynnBET, let's get into my favorite MLB parlay picks of the day:
Best MLB Parlay Picks Today
Marlins vs Pirates Under 8.5 (-120)
In case you haven't heard, the Marlins' lineup is like a party with no refreshments: it's got no punch. Miami has the second-worst OPS in MLB over the last three weeks and should continue to struggle against Zach Thompson, who just limited the Marlins to one run in his last start and allowed two or fewer runs in each of his last seven outings.
But I've got faith in Braxton Garrett to limit Pittsburgh as well. Garrett has a 1.89 ERA in three starts this month and features nasty breaking pitches, ranking in the 98th percentile in chase rate. The Pirates strike out at the third-highest rate in MLB, so Garrett's arsenal should serve him well.
The under is 7-1 in Garrett's outings while hitting in four consecutive starts by Thompson. Back those trends to continue as a parched Marlins lineup still can't quench its thirst.
Orioles +1.5 (-120) vs Yankees
Tyler Wells is on the mound for Baltimore so I'll go back to the...you know the rest. The Orioles won eight straight starts by Wells before last week's loss to the Rays. Even then, they still covered the spread, improving to a ridiculous 56-28 on the run line as an underdog this year.
Wells has a 2.76 ERA at home and gives Baltimore an advantage over the struggling Jameson Taillon, who has a 7.00 ERA in his last five starts. Taillon ranks in the 16th percentile in expected batting average, while the Orioles have the ninth-highest OPS against right-handed pitchers over the last month.
The Yankees are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven as road favorites while Baltimore covered the run line in nine of 12 as home underdogs. Go back to the Well(s) and enjoy the overflow of dollars coming our way. Maybe the Orioles can share some of that punch with those scrubs in Miami.
Mets (-173) vs Padres
San Diego is struggling in a big way, winning just eight of its last 23 games, and will be hard-pressed to change its luck against Max Scherzer and the Mets tonight.
Dating back to last season, New York is 21-3 in Scherzer's last 24 starts and he's got a 1.40 ERA with 31 strikeouts in 19.1 innings since returning from the Injured List.
Meanwhile, Yu Darvish has a 5.25 road ERA and San Diego is 1-3 in his last four outings. The Mets are 16-4 in their last 20 as a home favorite - they'll get the job done behind Mad Max.
Brewers (-280) vs Rockies
This is about as unfair as a pitching matchup gets. First, look at Corbin Burnes' MLB Statcast Pitching Profile:
Okay, now look at Antonio Senzatela's:
Need I say more? Back the Brewers to improve to 6-1 in Burnes' last seven starts while the Rockies fall to 1-8 in Senzatela's last nine.
MLB Parlay for July 22, 2022
The "Kemba Wants Cake" Parlay (+620)
- Marlins vs Pirates Under 8.5 (-120)
- Orioles +1.5 (-120) vs Yankees
- Mets (-173) vs Padres
- Brewers (-280) vs Rockies
My boy Kemba deserves this. Fingers crossed that the "Kemba Wants Cake" parlay, which returns $154.95 on a $25 bet thanks to +620 odds, lets my main home eat all the treats he wants!
Best of luck and let's get after it. This is for you, Kemba!
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.