Best NRFI and YRFI Bets Today (Mike Minor's 2022 Debut Headlines Trio of Wagers)
By Joe Summers
Happy Friday and congratulations on making it through the work week! What better way to celebrate than cashing some No Run First Inning (NRFI) and Yes Run First Inning (YRFI) bets?
There's a loaded MLB slate ahead and the BetSided crew is hard at work with previews for each matchup. We've had a nice run of success with NRFI and YRFI bets lately, so fingers crossed I can keep the cashes coming heading to the weekend.
Using the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook, here are my favorite NRFI and YRFI for today's slate:
Best NRFI and YRFI Bets Today
Nationals vs Reds YRFI (-135)
Mike Minor makes his 2022 debut for the Reds today against a Nationals lineup that is among the best at striking early. Washington scores a first-inning run in over 42% of their road games, good for second in MLB. Minor has long struggled with giving up home runs and I'll call my shot and say Juan Soto breaks out of his recent slump.
Even if that doesn't happen, we've got tremendous value on the other side as well with Josiah Gray pitching for the Nationals. Gray ranks in the second percentile in barrel percentage and seventh in expected slugging, so he can be hit hard early and often. The YRFI is on a perfect 7-0 run when Gray starts and we're getting great odds on that streak continuing.
Diamondbacks vs Pirates NRFI (-115)
The Pirates had a day off after a thrilling three-game sweep of the Dodgers, but I think their offense is due for a let-down after an emotional, triumphant few days. Diamondbacks' starter Merrill Kelly has fallen off after a fantastic April, but he still ranks in the 76th percentile in chase rate and 77th in hard hit percentage. I expect him to bounce back against a Pirates lineup that's 27th in OPS over the last month and scores first-inning runs at one of the lowest rates in the league.
But JT Brubaker should find success on the mound as well. He had a 2.63 ERA in May and didn't allow an earned run in either of his last two starts. Arizona's lineup is dangerous but they've scored a run in the first inning in only 22.73% of their road contests. With Brubaker's emergence and the Pirates' offensive futility, we should see another scoreless opening frame.
Padres vs Brewers NRFI (-155)
This is a ton of juice to pay, but luckily the pitchers are worth it. Joe Musgrove had a 1.64 ERA in May and since 2021, the NRFI is 31-9 in his starts. The Padres rank second in defensive Outs Above Average per MLB Statcast and that's helped them allow a first-inning run in just 21.43% of their road games.
But the Brewers are even stingier, allowing a run in the first inning in only 14.29% of their home matchups. Corbin Burnes is a first-inning maestro and can shut down a Padres lineup that was 28th in OPS against right-handed pitchers in May. The NRFI is 21-2 in Burnes' home starts since 2021 and is 9-1 when he pitches this year.
-155 is a big price to pay, but it's still a value based on these pitchers' elite track records.
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.