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Cardinals vs. Giants Prediction and Odds for Thursday, May 5 (Bet San Francisco with Webb on Mound)

By Reed Wallach

Apr 30, 2022; San Francisco, California, USA; San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Logan Webb (62)
Apr 30, 2022; San Francisco, California, USA; San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Logan Webb (62) / Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports
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Two National League playoff hopefuls do battle Thursday night at Oracle Park.

The St. Louis Cardinals are in San Francisco to take on the Giants, who come off a short mid-week series against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Each team sits at 14-10 on the year, looking to gain position on one another in the first week in May.

Each team sends out one of their best pitchers; as the Cards start Miles Mikolas against Logan Webb of the Giants.

Who has the edge in this NL showdown? Let's check out the odds:

Cardinals vs. Giants Odds, Run Line, Total

Run Line:

  • Cardinals: +1.5 (-200)
  • Giants: -1.5 (+165)

Moneyline:

  • Cardinals: +114
  • Giants: -133

Total: 7 (Over -120/Under +100)

Cardinals vs. Giants Prediction and Pick

The total is low for this projected pitcher's duel, and rightfully so. However, I give the edge to the home favorites on Thursday night.

Mikolas burst back onto the scene this season after missing most of 2021 with injuries, however we are starting to see some regression after rolling through his first 3 starts. While his ERA is still low at 1.52, his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is up close to 3.00 at 2.89. The Cards have one of the best defenses in baseball and that has bailed him out of late.

He'll be matched up against Logan Webb, who can thrive against this Cardinals lineup. Webb has a 3.26 ERA and a FIP of 2.80 hinting that some positive regression is coming his way in the field. He is still pitching to a strong number despite his strikeout rate low at below 6. So, Webb is generating soft contact and finding outs.

That works against a Cards team that is last in strikeout rate but middle of the pack in batting average, so it's not like this team is free swinging and being held down by their strikeout rate. Webb can pitch a strong game against a disciplined roster that is average in hitting despite very low strikeouts.

I believe Mikolas is trending in the wrong direction and Webb is in line for another strong start. I'll back the Giants at a fair price.

LEAN: Giants -133

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