Duke vs. Florida State Prediction and Odds (Count on Points in ACC Showdown)
By Reed Wallach
The Duke Blue Devils head to the always difficult Donald L. Tucker Center to face Leonard Hamilton's Florida State Seminoles.
The 'Noles are still trying to find their footing in ACC play, but will likely have to do so without Malik Osborne, who is doubtful for this game after missing the team's game against Syracuse over the weekend.
Florida State's Malik Osborne (ankle) is doubtful for today's game against Duke, per a school spokesman. Averages 11.1 PPG and 7.2 RPG. DNP in last game.
— Jon Rothstein (@JonRothstein) January 18, 2022
Where is the betting value in this one when Duke looks to notch a true road win? Here are the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook.
Duke vs. Florida State Odds, Spread and Total
Spread:
- Duke -5 (-110)
- Florida State +5 (-110)
Moneyline:
- Duke -210
- Florida State +170
Total: 145 (Over -115/Under -105)
Duke vs. Florida State Prediction and Pick
While I expect Osborne to sit for the 'Noles, I believe they are live to grab a win over Duke, who owns back-to-back double digit wins against middling ACC foes in Wake Forest and North Carolina State.
Count on Hamilton's team to push the pace against a vulnerable Duke transition defense and try and spread the floor against the interior defense of the Blue Devils that is anchored by seven footer Mark Williams (fourth in the country in block percentage).
FSU has a ton of size as well and is shooting nearly 35% from beyond the arc as a team. I'm bullish on the hosts three-point shooting going forward, they've hit on more than 41% of them over their last three games in league play, a positive sign for things to come.
On the other side, Duke has the most well known NBA Draft prospect in the country in Paolo Banchero as well as complimentary weapons like guard Trevor Keels and Wendell Moore. They rank 10th in offensive efficiency, per KenPom, and can beat you inside and out with their size and perimeter shooting.
Florida State does most of their damage in terms of forcing turnovers (25th in the country, per KenPom) but Duke is top 10 in limiting TO's. However, on the road in a tough environment, we'll see if a relatively young Blue Devils team can limit live ball turnovers. The Noles also allow a high three-point rate, over 43% this season, so this game can become a bit of a track meet with a ton of possessions.
I believe FSU is live in this spot without a lot of credit in the market, but I'm looking to the over as my best bet.
PICK: OVER 145, play to 146