NBA Picks

NBA Best Bets Today (Murray vs. Holmgren to Shine in Wednesday Summer League Evening Slate)

Ben Heisler
Sacramento Kings forward Keegan Murray is second in 3-point attempts in the NBA Summer League this year in Las Vegas.
Sacramento Kings forward Keegan Murray is second in 3-point attempts in the NBA Summer League this year in Las Vegas. / Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports
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Let's take a look at the consensus odds for the evening slate of games in tonight's NBA Summer League action.

NBA Summer League Odds, Picks and Predictions for Wednesday, July 13

Wizards vs. Pelicans - 6 pm ET

  • Spread: Wizards +1 (-110) | Pelicans -1 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Wizards -105 | Pelicans -115
  • Total: 175.5 (OVER -110 | UNDER -110)

Washington vs. New Orleans features the highest scoring game of the evening (still afternoon out in Las Vegas). Both teams routed their previous opponents as the Wizards dropped the Suns 97-72 while the Pelicans destroyed the Hawks 101-73.

The Wizards gave up 105 to the Pistons in their previous game, so I don't think it was a dramatic shift on defense; rather the Suns as a team were just off; shooting less than 35%. They're running so far and I think we'll see another up-tempo game today.

LEAN: OVER 175.5 (-110)

Raptors vs. Jazz - 7 pm ET

  • Spread: Raptors +1.5 (-110) | Jazz -1.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Raptors +105 | Jazz -125
  • Total: 173 (OVER -110 | UNDER -110)

This feels like a strange line for the Jazz as favorites, as they've been awful offensively so far in Summer League.

Utah currently owns the worst 3-point percentage in Vegas at 18.6%, while shooting just 34.2% as a team.

The Raptors, meanwhile rank fifth in 3-pointers made, shooting 36.5% from downtown. If Vegas senses the Jazz should win, I'll back the under as a result of some shooting regression coming from Toronto.

LEAN: UNDER 173 (-110)

Kings vs. Thunder - 8 pm ET

  • Spread: Kings +3 (-110) | Thunder -3 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Kings +130 | Thunder -150
  • Total: 172.5 (OVER -110 | UNDER -110)

We've got another top Draft Pick battle tonight when No. 2 pick Chet Holmgren of the Thunder faces No. 4 pick Keegan Murray and the Kings.

Murray's stood out for his ability to score from anywhere on the court with ease so far, but so has Holmgren, adding in much more defensive capabilities as a rim protector.

The Kings lead the Summer League in 3-pointers made and attempted, but the Thunder have made their presence felt defensively, leading me to back them in the most physical game the Kings will likely play in Vegas.

PICK: Thunder -3 (-110)

Heat vs. 76ers - 9 pm ET

  • Spread: Heat +2 (-110) | 76ers -2 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Heat +110 | 76ers -130
  • Total: 172.5 (-110)

Another surprising line, given the Sixers are two-point favorites despite the worst plus/minus rating of any team in Summer League. They've been awful from the free throw line as well; hitting less than 65% from the charity stripe.

Meanwhile, the Heat come off a 95-87 loss to the Hawks, fighting their way back down double digits in the fourth. I like them as a short dog tonight against a Sixers team that hasn't shown anything to feel good about.

LEAN: Heat +2 (-110)

Nuggets vs. Clippers - 10 pm ET

  • Spread: Nuggets +2 (-110) | Clippers -2 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Nuggets +110 | Clippers -130
  • Total: 168.5 (-110)

Both teams come in averaging 82 points per game combined; bottom 5-6 in the Summer League this far. A bizarre stat worth nothing is the Clippers rank bottom 3 in field goal percentage, but second in 3-point percentage. Meanwhile, the Nuggets are shooting 44.5% as a team, but just 25% from beyond the arc.

With 3-point percentage much more likely to fluctuate negatively, I'll take Denver to get it done on the moneyline.

PICK: Nuggets +2 (-110)


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