NFL Betting News

Houston Texans 2022 NFL Season Betting Preview (Welcome to the Davis Mills Era)

Iain MacMillan
Davis Mills will be the starting QB for the Houston Texans in 2022.
Davis Mills will be the starting QB for the Houston Texans in 2022. / Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

The Houston Texans have officially moved on from quarterback Deshaun Watson, after they traded him along with a sixth-round pick to the Cleveland Browns in exchange for a plethora of draft picks.

Davis Mills, who was a pleasant surprise in 2021, will seemingly lead the Texans into the future as the team starts a new era in 2022. They also brought in Lovie Smith to be their head coach. He served as the Texans associate head coach and defensive coordinator under David Culley, and will now takeover as the top dog after the organization let go of Culley.

A 4-13 record in 2021 led them to have the third overall selection in the NFL Draft. They opted for cornerback Devin Stingley Jr. out of LSU with the pick. They also had the 15th overall pick in the draft, selected offensive guard, Kenyon Green, out of Texas A&M.

Can the Texans take a step forward in 2022? Let's dive into what the oddsmakers think.

Houston Texans 2022 Offseason Moves, Signings, Coaching Changes

  • Traded Deshaun Watson + 2024 sixth-round pick to Browns for Browns' 2022 first-round and fourth-round picks + 2023 first and third-round picks + 2024 first and fourth-round picks.
  • Drafted Derek Stingley Jr. (CB) 3rd overall in 2022 NFL Draft.
  • Draft Kenyon Green (OG) 15th overall in 2022 NFL Draft.
  • Fired head coach David Culley, signed head coach Lovie Smith.
  • Signed running back Marlon Mack.
  • Extended RB Rex Burkhead through 2022 season.

Houston Texans 2022 Schedule

The Texans kick off their 2022 season against their divisional rival, the Indianapolis Colts. Other notable games include a Thursday Night Football Game against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 9, and a three-game stretch against divisional opponents to end the season.

The Texans will have their BYE in Week 6.

Houston Texans 2022 Win Total Prediction

  • OVER 4.5 Wins (+100)
  • UNDER 4.5 Wins (-120)

With the Texans win total set at 4.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook, the question is basically whether or not you think they'll improve in their 2021 record of 4-13.

Last season was a mess for them, as they tried to adjust to post-Deshaun Watson life. At the very least, I expect a little bit more stability in the organization in 2022.

SharpFootballAnalysis points out that the Texans have the fifth toughest schedule based on projected win total, but I still think they can improve on last year. They have two very winnable games against the Jaguars, and they play the NFC East in their interleague games. Their extra NFC matchup is against the Chicago Bears, projected to be one of the worst teams in the NFL.

Let's say they beat the Jaguars once, take down the New York Giants, Washington Commanders and Bears. They only need one more win to surpass their win total.

Sure, it never works out that way, but if Davis Mills can have another successful year under center, they could end up more competitive than you might think.

Pick: OVER 4.5 Wins (+100)

Houston Texans 2022 Odds to Win AFC South, AFC, and Super Bowl

  • To Make the Playoffs: +1600
  • Odds to Win AFC South: +3000
  • Odds to Win AFC: +13000
  • Odds to Win Super Bowl 57: +25000

Listen, I'm already getting aggressive by saying they'll surpass their season win total, but that doesn't mean I'm getting crazy and willing to bet on them to win their division, or even make the playoffs for that matter.

They still have too many holes to count on their team, and while the Watson trade gave them a good base to build for a future, they are nowhere near building anything that resembles a postseason squad.

The bright side is that they didn't get worse this offseason, but I would highly recommend staying away from any bets outside of their win total.

Following along with BetSided's pick on Betstamp all season long