Betsided

Mets vs. Diamondbacks Prediction and Odds for Sunday, April 24 (Grab Under Before it Keeps Moving)

By Ben Heisler

Madison Bumgarner, despite 10 walks and just 9 strikeouts through three starts, has been effective with a 1.38 ERA for the Diamondbacks.
Madison Bumgarner, despite 10 walks and just 9 strikeouts through three starts, has been effective with a 1.38 ERA for the Diamondbacks. / Chris Coduto/GettyImages
facebooktwitterreddit

The NL-leading New York Mets try to grab two of three this afternoon when they face the Arizona Diamondbacks in Phoenix at 4:10 p.m. ET (1:10 p.m local time).

Madison Bumgarner takes the mound for Arizona in search of his first win of the season. MadBum has bizarre numbers this year; boasting a 1.38 ERA despite more walks than strikeouts. He's been effectively wild in the early portion of the season, but will be put to the test vs. a dangerous Mets offense.

New York counters with right-hander Tylor Megill who's been outstanding through the early going; racking up 15 strikeouts in 16.1 innings while walking just two total batters.

Here are the latest odds for today's series finale via of WynnBET Sportsbook. 

Mets vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, and Total

Run Line

  • Mets: -1.5 (-110)
  • Diamondbacks: +1.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • Mets: -180
  • Diamondbacks: +165

Total:

  • Total 8.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Mets vs. Diamondbacks Prediction and Pick

Most sportsbooks now have this line down to 8 runs after opening at 9, so I'll grab the discount over at WynnBET and grab the under at 8.5.

MadBum has been, well, "maddening" as a bettor to figure out his success so far this year. Via MLB Statcast, he's amongst the worst starting pitchers in the league in walk percentage, as well as fastball velocity, ranking in the 5th and 8th percentile respectively. Bumgarner relies on his cutter 53% of the time, as he looks to induce a lot more weak contact, but the problem is teams are spitting on his secondary pitches and the walks are piling up.

Yet Bumgarner has only given up eight hits in 13 innings so far this year. On a getaway day Sunday, I don't expect the Mets to be as patient in their approach, as they've struggled vs. ground ball pitchers this season with a .339 slugging percentage (league average in general is .435).

Even if the Mets get Bumgarner figured out, the Diamondbacks' offense is amongst the worst in baseball; ranking bottom five in WAR and bottom-four in Fangraphs' OFF (offensive runs above average) metric. Megill ranks in the 74th percentile in whiff percentage, and has only walked two batters all year. It's not a matchup that sets up well for Arizona.

I'll grab another under in this late game on Sunday.

LEAN: UNDER 8.5 runs (-110)

Follow all of Ben Heisler's betting plays in real-time HERE

Get the team's best bets of the day every weekend during "Bet & Breakfast!"

Home/MLB Odds