MLB Best Bets Today (Don't Sleep on Guardians to Step Up at Astros)
By Ben Heisler
It's all evening games in the Major Leagues this Monday night, as 12 games highlight a busy night of baseball heading into the closing stretch of May.
For my best bets of the night, I'm focused on both Ohio teams; fading one at home while backing the other as a big underdog on the road. Additionally, while it's never as fun to go unders on strikeout props, I've got a play in the late game in San Diego between the Padres and Milwaukee Brewers.
Let’s dive into tonight's picks, with all odds via WynnBET:
MLB Best Bets for Monday, May 23
- Cubs -130 ML at Reds
- Guardians +180 ML at Astros
- Nick Martinez UNDER 4.5 strikeouts vs. Brewers
Chicago Cubs -130 (ML) at Cincinnati Reds
I wrote a full preview earlier detailing the NL Central showdown between these two struggling teams, but the main emphasis details how it's simply not a fair pitching matchup.
The Cubs have gotten solid starts out of left-hander Drew Smyly this season; they just haven't scored runs for him. Smyly's gotten an average of 2.28 runs/game this year, nearly two full runs less than the Cubs' average this season of 4.15.
Meanwhile, Vladimir Gutierrez of the Reds has been a gas can this year with an ERA of 8.65 through 26 innings; allowing a home-run-rate of over two per nine this year.
The Reds are 9-10 in May after starting off 3-18 in April, but that's not enough to consider them as a home dog.
Cleveland Guardians +180 (ML) at Houston Astros
Everything's bigger in Texas, and I've got a spicy, Cleveland dog to serve up on the board today.
Astros starting pitcher Luis Garcia's numbers look decent: a 3.26 ERA through seven starts this year with a strikeout of 9.8 batters per nine. But he's also been the benefactor of some good luck as his Fielder Independent Pitching is up over 4. Per MLB Statcast, Garcia's expected slugging (xSLG) is much higher than from a season ago at .430, and his hard hit percentage is the highest of his career at 41%.
The Guardians have had their share of struggles offensively, but with a very solid starter on the mound in Triston McKenzie (2.97 ERA in 36.1 IP), I don't believe they should be nearly 2/1 underdogs in this matchup. McKenzie also has an exceptional 4.8 strikeout-to-walk ratio on the road this year.
Both Reed Wallach and I are on the same page for this one, as he also took the Guardians on the moneyline tonight.
Nick Martinez UNDER 4.5 strikeouts vs. Brewers
Martinez was my top prop bet of the day in today's "Best MLB Props" feature at BetSided because his overall numbers don't reflect this type of sustained success long term.
Over his last two starts, Martinez in just eight innings has 14 strikeouts. While some could interpret that as an advantage in his strikeout prop projections, knowing he's likely to go more than 4-plus in most starts, it's worth taking a step back to see how he's actually done most of the season.
Martinez has hovered around the 4-5 strikeout range in most starts, but then again, he's also thrown 14 of his 36 strikeouts in two games, while also having his groundball rate increase by 5.1% this year. The ball is in play more often, which in theory, should lead to less punch-outs on the mound.
The Brewers are middle-of-the-pack in strikeout percentage this year, so while it's not a good or bad matchup for Martinez, I'm expecting some negative regression here.
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