MLB Best Bets Today for Every Game (September 28)
We have another 15-game slate in Major League Baseball on Wednesday, and there are plenty of wild card hopeful teams battling for their playoff lives on Sept. 28.
The New York Mets and Atlanta Braves are locked in a dead heat for the NL East division crown, while the Baltimore Orioles and Milwaukee Brewers are aiming to sneak into the wild card over the final few days of the 2022 season.
There will be plenty of playoff baseball to wager on soon, but we won’t have any 15-game days like we do today. So, why not take advantage of it!
Let’s get into a pick for every game on Wednesday:
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: Reds ML (+100)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: Rays ML (+108)
Tyler Glasnow, after missing 14 months due to Tommy John surgery, will be making his return to the Tampa Bay Rays rotation on Wednesday night.
He had a 2.66 ERA with the Rays last season before getting injured, and he's looked fantastic in his rehab starts in AAA. He's pitched seven innings for the Rays AAA affiliate, and has only allowed one earned run. It's surprising to me that the Rays are underdogs in Glasnow's return.
He'll face-off against Triston McKenzie, who has allowed at least two earned runs in seven of his last eight starts.
I'll have faith in Glasnow in his return. I think this is a fantastic underdog spot on Wednesday. – Iain MacMillan
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: Tigers ML (-132)
Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: OVER 8.5 (-120)
The easy and obvious play would be to back the Braves in this game, but I there's a couple of reasons that make me think the OVER is the more valuable play.
First of all, the Nationals offense has surprisingly been stronger in September than it has been all season. Their season long OPS is .692, but just this month their OPS sits at .720.
Also, I don't trust either pitcher in this matchup, and that includes Jake Odorizzi. He looked like one of the better pitchers in baseball early in the season, but he's been hot garbage since being traded to the Braves. He has an ERA of 5.62 since the All-Star break.
Then there's Josiah Gray, who has a 6.57 ERA at home this season, and his total ERA is also 6.57 since the All-Star break. – Iain MacMillan
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: Yankees ML (-132)
Mitch White has allowed at least three earned runs in five straight starts. His ERA sits at 5.12 heading into Wednesday night's game, and now he has to face one of the best offenses in baseball in the Yankees.
The Blue Jays should also start to worry about their bullpen. They rank 16th in bullpen ERA (4.00) dating back to Aug. 1, so even if White can survive his start, the Yankees will have plenty of opportunities to score when the bullpen enters the game.
Snag the Yankees as favorites to close out this series. – Iain MacMillan
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: Mets -1.5 (+106)
Jesús Luzardo gets the start for the Marlins tonight, and his only other start against the Mets this season did not go well. He gave up five earned runs in only 3.1 innings pitched against them, and I expect a similar result tonight.
The Mets offense ranks 1st in the Majors in OPS since September 1st, so this is a bad time for any opposing pitchers to be facing this lineup. To make matters worse, the Marlins rank 27th in bullpen ERA this month, so even if Luzardo survives his start, the Mets will get plenty of opportunities to run up the score.
I'll bet on the Mets to win this game with ease ahead of their pivotal weekend series against the Braves. – Iain MacMillan
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: Orioles ML (+108)
Baltimore once again finds itself as an underdog against this Boston team, and this may be the most egregious spot, as the O’s have a clear pitching advantage.
Rich Hill has a 5.96 ERA across five starts this month, and he’s failed to go more than five innings in nine of his last 10 starts. Why is that problematic? Well, Boston’s bullpen ranks 25th in baseball in ERA, so no lead is safe even if Hill does pitch well early on.
Meanwhile Dean Kremer has been fantastic as of late, outside of shutting out the best team in the AL in his last start. The young righty has a 2.29 ERA over his last eight outings, allowing three or fewer runs in each game.
I’ll gladly back the O’s to win as underdogs on Wednesday. – Peter Dewey
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: Phillies ML (-180)
It's crunch time for the Phillies, and thankfully for them, they'll be sending out their ace, Aaron Nola, for Wednesday's game against the Cubs. He sports a 3.28 ERA on the season, but has pitched shutouts in three of his last six starts.
Now, he gets to face a Cubs team that ranks 27th in OPS this month, and 28th against right-handed pitchers.
Speaking of batting against right-handed pitchers, the Phillies have the second best OPS (.796) against righties this month, and now they get to face Hayden Wesneski, who will be making just his third Major League start.
Wedneski's ERA of 2.45 may seem strong, but in the four games he's played in so far in his career, he's got to face the Reds, Rockies, Giants, and Pirates. Not exactly the cream of the crop when it comes to offense. This will be his first true test, and I think the Phillies will take full advantage of the young arm. – Iain MacMillan
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: UNDER 7 (+102)
Jose Quintana has been awesome in his last two starts. He’s gone 14.2 innings without giving up a run. The Cardinals have won the last five games he’s started in, setting up the Cardinals well in this divisional matchup.
However, as good as Quintana has been in his last two games, Woodruff is a better pitcher when he’s at home. Woodruff is 7-0 at home with a 2.16 ERA. He has an opponent batting average of .185 and certainly has the edge on the mound tonight.
The Brewers need this game to take a huge step in the playoff race, but I don’t know if I can fully trust them with Quintana on the other side.
I’ll back the UNDER in this one and watch both pitchers do their thing. – Donnavan Smoot
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: OVER 7.5 (-118)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Houston Astros Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: NRFI (-170)
Oakland Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: Angels -1.5 (+106)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: UNDER 7.5 (-120)
Joe Musgrove, who hasn't been as sharp this month (3.92 ERA across four starts), is a formidable opponent for Julio Urias, who has watched the Dodgers go 20-9 in his starts this season.
In fact, Urias is arguably the hottest pitcher in baseball, as Los Angeles has won 16 of the last 17 games that he’s started. He also has allowed two or fewer runs in 12 straight starts, pitching to a shocking 1.33 ERA over that stretch.
No matter how well Musgrove pitches, that is going to be tough to match. There are two bets I actually like in this game, one being the Dodgers to keep up this crazy streak and win with Urias on the mound.
The other is the UNDER, with the total currently sitting at 7.5. Musgrove has allowed seven runs in 12.1 innings against Los Angeles this season, and the Padres rank 13th in MLB in bullpen ERA. – Peter Dewey
Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: Mariners ML (-162)
The Rangers haven’t been able to crack the Mariners code this season, going 2-5 SU. However, they’ve gone 4-3 against the run line. With George Kirby, who’s given up seven runs over his last 8.1 innings, on the mound, I like the Rangers to keep this one close.
This is just the spot the Rangers like to be in. They’ve thrived all season long as road underdogs, going 40-18 on the run line. Meanwhile, the Mariners are 14-28 on the runline as home favorites this year.
Everything is lining up for a Seattle win and Texas cover. – Donnavan Smoot
Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: OVER 8.5 (-102)