MLB Picks

MLB Best Bets Today (Sprinkle On Everything On Friday)

Miami Marlins v San Diego Padres
Miami Marlins v San Diego Padres / Matt Thomas/San Diego Padres/GettyImages

It’s going to be a fun night in baseball with every team in action and several new series starting. Today, I’m split on two pitchers and chose an underdog to back. Let’s get right into it, with the prop odds coming from consensus odds and the underdog coming from WynnBET.

MLB Best Bets Today

  • Framber Valdez UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (-125)
  • Yu Darvish OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (+120)
  • Red Sox ML vs. Rangers (+100)

Framber Valdez UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (-125)

Valdez is 3-3 against this line this season. Before his seven strikeout game against the Tigers, he only threw two strikeouts. On top of his own inconsistencies, the Nationals are one of the hardest teams to strike out. Washington strikes out at the third-lowest rate in Baseball. Valdez has been going longer into his starts, but he’s still allowing a lot of hits. I’ll trust the Nationals to get hits and maybe cut his day short. 

Yu Darvish OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (+120)

This is a great matchup for Darvish. The Braves strikeout at the second-highest rate in the Majors. Darvish has missed this line in the last two games, which is giving us a lot of value today. Outside of a terrible start against the Giants, Darvish has gone at least six innings in each one of his starts. The volume is there with Darvish and the matchup is presenting itself as well. All he needs to do is capitalize. 

Red Sox ML vs. Rangers (+100)

Boston – last series notwithstanding – has gotten at least one win in every series it’s played in this year. After a loss to end the Braves’ series, I think the Red Sox can sneak in a win today against the Rangers.

Since the month of May started, the Red Sox have a better team OPS, the same amount of runs and more hits than the Rangers – despite playing two less games.

As good as Dane Dunning has been this season, Nick Pivetta – the Red Sox’s starter today – hasn’t been a slouch. Pivetta is coming off an 8-strikeout performance with no runs allowed. He’s been giving Boston quality starts and putting the Sox in a position to go win the game. Boston hasn’t done a good job in capitalizing on those chances, but I think they can do it tonight. 

Texas hasn’t done a good job of putting wins back-to-back recently, so I’ll fade them in Game 1 of this series.

You can find Donnavan Smoot’s full betting record here.