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MLB Underdog of the Day ( Pablo Lopez and the Miami Marlins at the Houston Astros)

By Matt De Saro

Miami Marlins v Colorado Rockies
Miami Marlins v Colorado Rockies / Matthew Stockman/GettyImages
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The Houston Astros continue their short homestead today by kicking off a three-game series as the host of the Miami Marlins. This interleague series should be close with both teams in good form recently. The Marlins come to town as the fourth-place team in the NL East at 25-30 but have gained ground thanks to a 6-3 record since the start of June. Meanwhile, the Astros are 4-3 in that same span. 

I think that there is no question that the Astros are a better team overall, hence their odds to win this game of -150. However, I think the oddsmakers are overlooking just how good their starter, Pablo Lopez, has been this year. 

Here are the odds for this game, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook. 

Marlins vs.Astros Odds, Run Line, and Total

Run Line

  • Marlins: +1.5 (-155)
  • Astros: -1.5 (+127)

Moneyline:

  • Marlins: +140
  • Astros: -150

Total:

  • Total 8 (Over +105/Under -125)

Best MLB Underdog Pick Today

Lopez will be making his 12th start of the year for the Marlins sporting a 4-2 record, 2.18 ERA, and 0.97 WHIP in 66 innings. The Marlins have a bad habit of losing games that he starts and are just 1-4 in his last five starts. But the Marlins looked sharp in a win last week with Lopez on the mound against the San Francisco Giants 5-4. I think this was a much-needed confidence boost for a guy who has been pitching lights out and losing at the same time. 

While the Astros are a better offense overall, the Marlins have not been hitting too poorly this year. They are scoring 4.41 runs per game on average with a team OPS of .715. They do have issues in the bullpen, but Lopez can spin seven innings or more if things go his way. 

Lopez is so locked in right I love him in this spit with the Marlins as underdogs. He has a .196 batting average against and a strikeout to walk rate of 19.5. Additionally, Lopez is fired on the road where his ERA is just 1.41 when compared to 2.91 at home. 

The Marlins are well worth a bet as road dogs to kick off this series in Houston. 

Pick: Marlins +140

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