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Nationals vs. Marlins Prediction and Odds for Tuesday, May 17 (Fade Washington When Joan Adon Pitches)

By Matt De Saro

Washington Nationals pitcher Joan Adon.
Washington Nationals pitcher Joan Adon. / Ronald Martinez/GettyImages
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The two worst teams in the NL East battle it out on Tuesday to help us determine just which team is worse. The Miami Marlins host the Washington Nationals in Game 2 of a three-game series at loanDepot park.

The Nationals entered this series 3-8 in their previous 11 games after losing series to the Rockies, Angels, Mets, and Astros over the last two weeks. For my money, they have been the most surprising bad team in the league this year. I expected them to struggle, but not like this. They appear destined to finish in the basement of this division and haven't won a series since back in April. 

I’m a bit surprised at how bad the Marlins are turning out to be as well. In the 14 games leading up to this series, the Marlins went 3-11 straight up. That cold streak sent their record from a 12-9 to a 15-19 in less than two weeks. 

Here are the odds for this game, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook. 

Nationals vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, and Total

Run Line

  • Nationals: +1.5 (-145)
  • Marlins: -1.5 (+120)

Moneyline:

  • Nationals: +148
  • Marlins: -158

Total:

  • Total 8.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Nationals vs. Marlins Prediction and Pick

I feel like a broken record saying this again, but I can’t believe that Joan Adon is getting another chance to start for Washington. The 23-year-old righty enters this game with an unsightly 7.03 ERA and 1.72 WHIP in 32 innings. He had one good game all year against the Diamondbacks. But, other than that, Adon hasn’t given up less than three earned runs in a single game.

He is also walking a ton of hitters including five three innings on Thursday against the Mets. Technically his ERA is lowering, but that is only because it started at 10.00 after getting lit up by the Pirates early in the season. 

I have been consistently fading Adon and will continue to do so here. The Nationals are 1-6 SU and ATS in games he starts and I don’t see him suddenly turning things around. Sure I said the same about Hunter Greene on Sunday. But, the Reds still lost and I was still right. Take the Marlins and don’t overthink this game. 

Pick: Marlins -1.5 (+120)

Follow all of Matt De Saro’s betting picks HERE

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