NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions for Trae Young, Spurs-Pelicans for Wednesday's Play-In Games)

Two play-in games are in the books, two more teams are headed to the playoffs and there are three teams in each conference fighting for the No. 8 seed this week.

How can you not love postseason basketball? 

Last night was a great start to betting on every postseason game, as we went 2-0 in the NBA Best Bets column.

I’m looking to do the same thing tonight, with one pick on a game and a player prop in the other, and you might find some similarities to Tuesday’s picks. 

Let’s jump in!

All odds via WynnBET:

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• NBA Best Bets Record: 186-169-5 (+1.1476 units)

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record in the NBA this season here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• San Antonio Spurs +5 vs. New Orleans Pelicans (-110)
• Trae Young UNDER 46.5 Points, Rebounds, Assists (-120)

San Antonio Spurs vs. New Orleans Pelicans: Spurs +5 (-110)

When it comes to betting on the San Antonio Spurs, I simply can’t help myself. This team covers in 53.8 percent of its games, and there’s something about Gregg Popovich in a playoff-like scenario that I just can’t stay away from. 

This is an interesting matchup, and one that I bet on Monday, as the Pelicans have been one of the best teams in the NBA as a home favorite this season (10-4-1 against the spread), but the Spurs have been just as good as road dogs, going 19-12-1 ATS. 

However, when you look at the current form of these teams entering the game, this becomes a much easier pick for me. 

Even though Murray missed several games to close the season, the Spurs have the No. 2 defensive rating and No. 14 offensive rating in the NBA over their last 10 games. 

The Pelicans? They rank 16th and 12th in those respective categories. 

These two teams played four times this season and twice in the last month, with the Spurs going 3-1. New Orleans did beat San Antonio by 33 on March 18, but it came in one of the Spurs’ worst games of the season, as they shot just 36 percent from the floor and 25 percent from beyond the arc. 

The other three games between these two teams were a Spurs 15-point win, a Spurs 10-point win and a Spurs four-point win in the most recent matchup. 

I think this one is close, especially since the Spurs have been on fire against the spread as of late, going 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games. 

San Antonio may be a live dog as well, but for now I’ll take the points.

Trae Young UNDER 46.5 Points, Rebounds, Assists (-120)

Are you sensing a theme here? 

I faded Karl-Anthony Towns in this prop on Tuesday because he has struggled against the Los Angeles Clippers, and things are not different with Trae Young here. 

First off, Trae has cleared this prop in just three of his last 12 games, and there was one key denominator in all of those games. Young scored 36, 41 and 45 points in the matchups where he went over 46.5 points, rebounds and assists. 

It’s possible that he has a big scoring game, but when you look at how the Hornets have defended this season, I’m willing to bet that he doesn’t. In four games against Charlotte this season, Young is averaging 20.8 points, 10.8 assists and 3.8 rebounds per game while shooting just 37.7 percent from the field. 

To put this into perspective, only the Dallas Mavericks, Philadelphia 76ers and Sacramento Kings held Young to less points per game this season. And, he only played those teams two or fewer times, making one bad game hold a lot more weight than four matchups with Charlotte. 

Playoff Trae was fun last season, but this number is too high for me in Wednesday’s play-in game.

How should you navigate the NBA playoffs and futures market? The BetSided has you covered in the NBA edition of "Fraud or Future!"