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Orioles vs. Athletics Prediction and Odds for Monday, April 18 (Athletics Offense To Overwhelm Watkins)

By Joe Summers

Frankie Montas hopes to build off a strong performance in his last start as the Athletics host the Orioles today
Frankie Montas hopes to build off a strong performance in his last start as the Athletics host the Orioles today / Rich Schultz/GettyImages
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After earning a series win over the Yankees, the 3-6 Baltimore Orioles hope to get a winning streak going as they take on the 5-5 Oakland Athletics tonight at 9:40 PM EST.

Spenser Watkins gets the call for Baltimore. He'll be an opener of sorts as he won't pitch long into the game before turning it over to the Orioles bullpen. Watkins gave up four runs (one earned) in three innings against the Brewers in his first start of the year but was dreadful in 2021, amassing an 8.07 ERA over 54.2 innings.

The Athletics will counter with Frankie Montas, who posted a sterling 3.37 ERA last year and rebounded from a rough first start of 2022 to hold the Rays to one run over 6.1 innings last week.

Can Montas notch another strong performance in a victory or will Baltimore stay hot as underdogs behind Watkins?

Let's check out the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook to help us find out ahead of this Orioles vs Athletics matchup:

Orioles vs Athletics Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line

  • Orioles +1.5 (-135)
  • Athletics -1.5 (+112)

Moneyline:30.2

  • Orioles: +170
  • Athletics: -185

Total:

  • 7.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Orioles vs Athletics Prediction and Pick

My first thought is "What on earth is this total doing at 7.5??" Frankie Montas is a stud, but he still gave up five runs in his first start. And Spenser Watkins is an unmitigated disaster on the mound. In his final seven starts of 2021 before being relegated to the bullpen, Watkins gave up 36 runs in 30.2 innings for a disgusting 10.57 ERA.

Just look at Watkins' 2021 pitching profile and tell me this line should be 7.5. You can't.

Baltimore's bullpen has been great to this point in the season, but they're coming off a pair of series against struggling offenses in the Brewers and Yankees. The under has hit in every single Orioles game this season but this line is a dramatic overreaction. 7.5 is a total reserved for elite pitching matchups, not one good pitcher against quite possibly the worst starter in the MLB.

More than half of the Athletics' lineup has an above-average hard hit percentage, so they're squaring the ball up well. The wind is blowing out to center field today, so that'll help the ball carry as well.

Watkins should be completely overwhelmed, and I love the value on both Oakland and the over today. The A's offense is going to roll and bring Baltimore back down to earth after a series win over the Yankees.

Pick: Athletics -1.5 (+112) and Over 7.5 (-105)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

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