Padres Win Total Prediction Jumps Following Sean Manaea Trade

The lead-up to MLB Opening Day has always been exciting, but it’s not often we see significant trades happen in the last week of Spring Training. Well, the Padres and Athletics didn’t get that memo and just got together for a pretty big trade considering the timing of it. 

It was announced yesterday that the San Diego Padres are the new home of left handed-pitcher Sean Manaea. The Athletics traded him, along with Aaron Holiday, to the Padres in exchange for Euribiel Angeles and Adrian Martinez. Holiday was a 13th round pick in the last MLB draft while Martinez is a pitcher who made it up to the AAA level last year. 

Sean Manea Bolsters Padres Rotation

But, the big news here is how the Padres continue to bolster their rotation even days before the start of the season. The Padres now have a very strong rotation and added flexibility to possibly deal a different starting pitcher away to help them in other areas. All in all, this is a strong move by the Padres that shows me they are committed to winning in 2022. Speaking of winning, the trade for Manaea predictably changed San Diego’s projected season win total for 2022. 

Now, Manaea is no Cy Young candidate, so the odds didn’t move too much. But, the Padres were pegged at 86.5 wins before the move and have since jumped to 87. What the oddsmakers at WynnBET Sportsbook are telling me with this movement is that Manaea is worth just half-game more than whoever would have been starting in that spot. I think this doubt is based on his durability and not his skill on the mound. Manaea made just 16 starts from 2019 to 2020 and his health should be monitored moving forward. Especially because the Padres rotation is a who's who of fragile arms including Yu Darvis, Blake Snell, and Joe Musgrove. 

My recommendation is to not let this move change your perception of the Padres too much. If you were going to be the win total under, I would stick with this as Manaea is not a guy who will change the trajectory of an entire team. But, if you bet over, I would feel good about this move as it did make the rotation noticeably better.