Phillies vs. Braves Prediction and Odds for Tuesday, May 24 (Back Two Strong Starters)
By Peter Dewey
The Philadelphia Phillies are inching closer to .500 on the 2022 season and have won back-to-back games heading into Tuesday’s matchup with the defending World Series champion Atlanta Braves.
The Braves can’t seem to get their season off the ground, posting a 19-23 record and a negative-15 run differential, but they’ll have ace Max Fried (4-2, 3.31 ERA) on the mound on Tuesday.
Philly will counter with Kyle Gibson (3-2, 3.98 ERA) in this matchup.
Here are the odds for Tuesday’s NL East showdown via WynnBET:
Phillies vs. Braves Odds, Run Line and Total
Run Line:
- Phillies: +1.5 (-140)
- Braves: -1.5 (+115)
Moneyline:
- Phillies: +160
- Braves: -175
Total:
- 8 (Over -120/Under +100)
Phillies vs. Braves Prediction and Pick
This is a battle between two of the best OVER teams in MLB, and it makes sense since the Phillies are 18th in team ERA and the Braves are 21st this season.
Philadelphia’s bullpen doesn’t help, as it ranks in the bottom 10 in the league in bullpen ERA (4.06) which could erase a potentially solid start from Gibson.
Since the Phillies can be trusted to close out games, I’m going to trust the starters, who are both pitching even better than their ERAs suggest.
Fried, who has a Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) of 2.74 this season, and Gibson, who has a FIP of 3.50, both are due for some positive regression in this matchup.
I’ll trust the starters to keep this game close through the first five innings.
Lean: Braves-Phillies First Five Innings UNDER 4.5 (-120)
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.