Pirates vs. Nationals Prediction and Odds for Wednesday, June 29 (Trust Pittsburgh On The Road)

The Pittsburgh Pirates and Washington Nationals are set to close out a three-game series this afternoon at Nationals Park. Washington was able to steal the series opener 3-2, but still remain firmly in last place in the NL East. Things in Pittsburgh are going slightly better as the Pirates are in third place in the NL Central, despite entering this series on a three-game losing streak. There is a lot of stink to unpack here so let's dive right in. 

Here are the odds for this game from WynnBET Sportsbooks. 

Pirates vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, and Total

Run Line

• Pirates: +1.5 (-170)
• Nationals: -1.5 (+140)

Moneyline:

• Pirates: +119
• Nationals: -129

Total:

• 9.5 (Over +100/Under -120)

Pirates vs. Nationals Prediction and Pick

While the Nationals team is full of issues, Paolo Espino has been one of the few bright spots on this team. Somehow, someway, the 35-year-old is having a breakout season for one of the worst teams in the league. He spent most of this season in the bullpen but will make his fourth start of the year for Washington at 0-1 with a 2.21 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 40 ⅔ innings.  While that is all well and good, I can’t help but feel like a massive regression is in Espino’s near future. I mean, the guy is 35 and only has five years of MLB experience. He’s never finished a year with an ERA under 4.27 and only served as a full-time starter once. Still, it's hard to argue with results and Espino basically shut down the Phillies and Brewers in back-to-back starts.

The Pirates will start Mitch Keller today, and despite some iffy numbers, at least we know what we’re getting from him. Keller enters this game at 2-5 with a 4.77 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over 66 innings. But, Keller has been quite good this month and has his ERA in June down to 2.82. He hasn't allowed a home run over his last four starts spanning 22 ⅓ innings. Keller was up against some solid teams in that time including the Rays, Giants, and Cardinals. 

Much like yesterday, I don’t understand why a team as bad as the Nationals are favorites here. I get they are at home, and the Pirates are in very bad shape too. But, it just feels icky to bet the Nats as ML favorites. I will continue to fade them as I await Espino’s regression game. 

Pick: Pirates ML +119

Follow all of Matt De Saro’s betting picks HERE