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Rays vs. Astros Prediction and Odds for Sunday, October 2 (Tampa Offers Great Value as Road Underdog)

By Ben Heisler

Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Corey Kluber dominated the Houston Astros lineup back on September 21, going seven innings of one-run ball.
Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Corey Kluber dominated the Houston Astros lineup back on September 21, going seven innings of one-run ball. / Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
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Corey Kluber is hoping to catch lightning in a bottle twice.

After mowing down the Houston Astros back on September 21 in Tampa Bay; going seven strong innings giving up just one earned run, he looks to do it again this Sunday in Houston with American League wild card positioning on the line.

The Astros have the top spot in the AL clinched up, so they, along with the New York Yankees receive a bye in the first round of the postseason. Now, it's all about staying healthy and feeling good entering the postseason. Houston sends Luis Garcia on the bump to counter Kluber.

Here are the latest odds for today's matinee.

Rays vs. Astros Odds, Run Line and Total

Rays vs. Astros Prediction and Pick

Credit the Astros. They've had plenty of opportunities these final few weeks since clinching both the AL West division and a guaranteed bye to coast the rest of the way. Instead, September has been their second-best month of the season; going 18-8.

The key today becomes what kind of start the veteran Kluber can give Tampa. While he was fantastic two starts ago vs. these Astros, he's also coming off a tough outing vs. his former team, the Cleveland Guardians; going just four innings allowing eight hits and three runs. However, it's worth nothing that despite a short start, Kluber's in-game Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), was actually terrific at 1.37. In fact, over his last five starts, Kluber's ERA is 5.18, but his FIP is only 2.62; suggesting he's been insanely unlucky over the last month.

For Garcia, it's actually been the opposite. Over his last six games, he's 5-0 with a 3.00 ERA, but his FIP is up near 4.27. That's not to say he's been bad, per se, but perhaps the number for this matchup is a bit inflated when it should actually be closer.

The Rays need this game if they hope to make any sort of run for a better wild card spot with the Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays in front. I think Kluber's due for some positive regression and can see it coming today vs. a team nowhere near as desperate.

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