Rays vs. Yankees Prediction: New York is In With a Win

If the Yankees beat the Rays today at Yankee Stadium, they're in the American League Wild Card game.

If they lose, not only will they have lost three straight to end the season, but their positive playoff outlook could potentially be swept away as well.

The Yankees, according to the oddsmakers at WynnBET are expected to hold on, when they take on the Rays as -135 moneyline favorites (bet $135 to win $100 if the Yankees win straight-up). If bettors take New York on the run line at -1.5, they can get the Yankees at +135 instead, but New York must win by more than one run. If bettors want to take Tampa Bay, they're +115 on the moneyline, and +1.5 (-155) on the run line. The total for this afternoon's matchup is set at 9.5 runs.

Rays vs. Yankees Pitching Matchup

Right-hander Jameson Taillon (8-6, 4.40 ERA) gets the start for the Bombers today at Yankee Stadium against fellow righty Michael Wacha (3-5, 5.26 ERA).

Taillon is making his 29th start of the season, good for the second-most of his career. Home runs have been a bit of an issue for him, giving up 24 for the season, an average of 1.5 per nine innings. He's only pitched twice in the month of September heading into today's matchup. More on that in a bit.

Wacha has turned in some of his best pitching for the final stretch of the season. In his last four starts (five outings), he's pitched 25 innings, giving up just 10 earned runs (3.60 ERA) with 28 strikeouts while walking just four. The Rays can use him either as a full-fledged starter today, or as an opener if they want more guys to get some work to stay fresh for the playoffs.

New York Yankees Playoff Scenarios

If the Yankees win, they're in the Wild Card game. If they lose, they'll be in one of two potential tiebreaker games either against the Red Sox or Blue Jays as the road team.

Right now, the Red Sox and Yankees are tied for the two top spots in the Wild Card race at 91-70. However, the Mariners and Blue Jays are 90-71, and if they both win, along with both New York and Boston losing, that would set up a scenario where each team would receive a letter designation: A, B, C and D. If the Yankees lose (along with Boston), plus a win from Toronto and Seattle, the Yankees would be "Team C," giving them the option to choose where they play for a Wild Card play-in game: at Boston, or at Toronto.

Rays vs. Yankees Prediction and Pick

A lot will be dependent on the lineup the Rays toss out today, but judging by the first two games of the series, Tampa Bay would be highly interested in the potential chaos within their division, forcing teams to have to play a play-in game just to get into the single-elimination wild card matchup.

While I'm tempted to back the Yankees and Jameson Taillon to go out and shove in a crucial home start, I'm leaning towards the Rays here as road underdogs.

Taillon's injury status is concerning for me. He's only pitched twice since the end of August, and is coming off an aggravated ankle injury.

While Taillon's post reports have been encouraging, I just don't know which pitcher will show up here, and even if he's effective, how long will Aaron Boone let him continue to throw so that he doesn't re-aggravate the already aggravated ankle?

All the pressure is on New York, and they've been one of the streakiest teams in baseball this year. They're on the wrong side of the streak at the moment, and I think we head towards baseball chaos.

PREDICTION: Rays +115

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